- Kellen Moore’s offense may benefit Chris Olave in 2025: Moore has constantly emphasised slot receivers in his offenses, a pattern that has translated to robust fantasy manufacturing. With Olave anticipated to see elevated utilization within the slot for the Saints this season, he could possibly be poised for a breakout 12 months underneath Moore’s playcalling.
- Jordan Mason shines when given alternatives. Whether serving because the 49ers’ main starter or getting only a handful of touches, Mason has constantly delivered huge performs all through his three-year profession.
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Estimated studying time: 12 minutes
It’s exceptionally uncommon for a participant to be a real “must-draft,” somebody who is sensible on your roster irrespective of your draft technique or group construct. Last 12 months, Rashee Rice match that mould. Despite being drafted as late as Round 6 on some platforms, he emerged because the WR2 over the primary three weeks earlier than his harm.
While no participant presents that type of clear-cut worth this early within the offseason, the three names beneath are ones I’m constantly drafting — even when it means reaching barely forward of ADP. They’re the type of gamers I’m snug choosing no matter how my roster is shaping up.
Average draft place (ADP) displays a consensus of ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo! rankings for 12-team redraft leagues.
Last up to date: Monday, July 28
WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 7.06)
Chris Olave was chosen eleventh general within the 2022 NFL Draft by a Saints group that includes Michael Thomas coming back from harm and newly signed Jarvis Landry. He earned a beginning position by Week 2, and with Thomas sidelined by Week 4 and Landry lacking a lot of the season, he shortly grew to become the group’s high receiving choice. The Ohio State product completed his rookie 12 months with 1,042 receiving yards, greater than double that of the Saints’ subsequent main receiver, regardless of lacking two video games. He put up these numbers catching passes primarily from Andy Dalton.
In 2023, Olave’s manufacturing remained remarkably constant regardless of a quarterback swap to Derek Carr. While he ran extra routes per recreation, a dip in goal charge barely lowered his effectivity. Still, the added quantity led to extra targets, receptions, receiving yards, one extra landing and a soar to nineteenth on the place in fantasy factors per recreation. He missed one recreation with an ankle harm and suffered the third concussion of his profession, however he returned the next week.
The Saints opened the 2024 season with dominant wins, outscoring their opponents 91-29 over the primary two video games. Olave performed extra of a decoy position in Week 1, as 5 totally different gamers scored touchdowns. In Week 2, he caught 4 passes for 81 yards, however restricted enjoying time and routes — as a result of blowout — capped his manufacturing.
Olave was stable over the following three video games, totaling 16 receptions for 183 yards and a landing. However, his season was derailed by accidents. He suffered a concussion simply two snaps into Week 6, missed Week 7 after which returned in Week 8 with a formidable eight catches for 107 yards. Unfortunately, he sustained one other concussion after simply eight snaps later that season, prompting the Saints to close him down for the 12 months.
Olave’s 2024 per-game stats want context. He exited early on account of concussions in two of his eight video games and performed restricted snaps in two others due to blowouts. That leaves simply 4 full, aggressive video games through which he averaged 14.7 PPR factors per recreation, a career-best tempo.
The main concern as we advance is his well being. Another concussion can be the sixth documented of his profession, doubtlessly posing a severe danger to his availability or profession.
That mentioned, Olave has been elite on a per-route foundation. His 25.4% goal charge over the previous three seasons ranks eighth amongst all broad receivers, and his 2.21 yards per route run ranks ninth.
The Saints employed Kellen Moore as their new head coach, which might considerably reshape the passing recreation. Moore’s offenses have constantly funneled targets to broad receivers — even when he’s had elite pass-catching backs, which bodes effectively for the Saints’ receivers and will sign a lowered position for Alvin Kamara within the passing recreation.
Over the final three seasons, Moore’s main slot receiver has averaged between 15.3 and 21.5 PPR factors per recreation. Meanwhile, his main exterior receivers in three-receiver units have usually struggled to supply constant fantasy worth, except for A.J. Brown in 2024. Rashid Shaheed is a greater second choice than Moore had with the Chargers or Cowboys, so there’s hope each he and Chris Olave can thrive. The key query is: Who will play within the slot?
Olave and Shaheed are equally constructed — smaller, quicker receivers than Moore sometimes options, exterior of DeVonta Smith final season. Both have expertise within the slot, however the effectivity metrics recommend a course. Shaheed has averaged 2.27 yards per route run out broad, in comparison with 1.49 within the slot. Olave, in the meantime, has averaged 2.23 yards per route within the slot versus 2.16 out broad — doubtlessly making him the favourite for slot duties.
Chris Olave has the expertise to complete as a top-15 fantasy broad receiver, and the arrival of head coach Kellen Moore might elevate his manufacturing. However, issues stay. The Saints’ quarterback scenario is much from supreme, and Olave’s concussion historical past raises sturdiness questions, doubtlessly rising his danger for a season-ending harm greater than most gamers.
RB Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 11.03)
Jordan Mason entered the league as an undrafted rookie in 2022, signing with the San Francisco 49ers. Midway by means of his rookie season, the 49ers overhauled their backfield by buying and selling for Christian McCaffrey and elevating Mason to the first backup position. He made probably the most of his restricted alternatives, incomes a 90.6 PFF dashing grade and averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
In 2023, Mason slid to 3rd on the depth chart with Elijah Mitchell’s return. However, when Mitchell missed time, Mason once more stepped in as the first backup and carried out at a excessive degree, very similar to he did in his rookie 12 months. Heading into 2024, there was hypothesis that Mason might overtake Mitchell as McCaffrey’s main backup, a state of affairs that performed out after Mitchell suffered a season-ending harm. With McCaffrey nursing an Achilles sprain to begin the 12 months, Mason briefly opened the season because the 49ers’ lead again.
He capitalized on the chance, rating as a top-six fantasy operating again by means of the primary 5 weeks of the season. While Mason fumbled thrice and noticed some regression in effectivity with a bigger workload, he remained explosive, breaking off lengthy runs at an elite charge and dashing for at the very least 70 yards in six of his first seven video games. He additionally averaged 4.1 or extra yards per carry in every of these outings. As a receiver, Mason remained restricted, catching only one or two passes per recreation.
Injuries derailed the second half of his season. He sustained a shoulder harm in Week 6 and aggravated it the next week. McCaffrey returned throughout that stretch, pushing Mason again right into a reserve position. It’s necessary to notice that lots of Mason’s per-game stats from 2024 embody video games the place he was not the starter. When McCaffrey suffered a season-ending harm in Week 13, Mason stepped in with 13 carries for 78 yards, solely to undergo a season-ending high-ankle sprain of his personal shortly after.
Mason was traded to the Minnesota Vikings this offseason, giving him an opportunity to flee Christian McCaffrey’s shadow and doubtlessly earn extra enjoying time. Minnesota’s lead again final season was Aaron Jones Sr., a veteran who has spent most of his profession in a two-back committee. Jones, now 30, has handled a string of accidents in recent times — together with hamstring, MCL, hip, rib, and quad points — and will not be capable of shoulder a full workload.
Mason has primarily operated as an early-down again in his NFL profession, whereas Jones presents a extra well-rounded talent set. Jones posted 408 receiving yards in 2024, his highest mark since 2019, and has constantly graded effectively as a runner. However, indicators of decline have surfaced, along with his dashing effectivity slipping towards common in latest seasons. A possible backfield break up would see Mason dealing with early-down work, with Jones enjoying a big position in passing conditions.
If Jones have been to overlook time, Mason might step right into a featured position just like his five-game stretch because the 49ers’ starter. Fullback C.J. Ham has taken on third-down move safety duties in recent times and would seemingly proceed to take action, limiting Mason’s position on passing downs. Ty Chandler would function the backup, however Mason would seemingly obtain as a lot quantity because the Vikings consider he can deal with.
The Vikings had a comparatively common offensive line in 2024, however the unit might take a notable step ahead this season, relying on how shortly it develops chemistry. Star left sort out Christian Darrisaw, the group’s greatest run blocker, missed greater than half of final season. Minnesota additionally addressed its inside points by signing Will Fries and drafting Donovan Jackson within the first spherical. While it is troublesome to foretell how a rookie lineman will carry out, Jackson is anticipated to be an improve at left guard.
That mentioned, this might nonetheless symbolize a slight downgrade for Jordan Mason. During his time with the 49ers, he constantly ran behind a top-10 offensive line.
The snap distribution between Mason and Aaron Jones Sr. stays unsure. Still, there’s a practical path for Mason to emerge because the extra precious fantasy choice, even when each keep wholesome. If Jones continues to battle with accidents, Mason is prone to step in as a dependable fantasy starter.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 11.05)
Dalton Kincaid entered the NFL as a 2023 first-round choose for the Buffalo Bills, becoming a member of a roster headlined by Stefon Diggs however missing a transparent No. 2 goal. While the group had just lately prolonged tight finish Dawson Knox on a four-year, $52 million deal, it initially appeared that Buffalo would shift to a 12-personnel base offense. In Week 1, each tight ends performed greater than 79% of the offensive snaps, however that was the one recreation of the season through which each noticed such excessive utilization.
Kincaid was quiet by means of his first 5 video games, failing to high 45 receiving yards or rating a landing, and he missed Week 6. A Week 7 harm to Knox opened the door for an elevated position, and Kincaid took benefit, averaging 14.1 PPR factors per recreation from Weeks 7 to 12. However, his utilization dropped after the Week 13 bye and Knox’s return, and Kincaid managed simply six catches for 28 yards over the following three video games. He rebounded with two 80-plus-yard performances to shut the common season and added eight catches for 104 yards and a landing throughout two playoff video games.
Kincaid opened the 2024 season because the starter, enjoying 83.9% of offensive snaps in Week 1 however recording only one catch for 11 yards. His snap charge fluctuated the remainder of the 12 months, peaking at 56.7% over the common season and dipping to 44.3% within the playoffs. While he appeared wholesome early on, he landed on the harm report beginning in mid-October with collarbone and knee accidents, the latter of which sidelined him for 3 video games late within the 12 months.
He averaged simply 7.8 PPR factors per recreation in 2024, rating twentieth amongst tight ends, and completed exterior the highest 18 in additional than half of his video games. His routes per recreation dropped by seven in comparison with his rookie 12 months. Despite a robust goal charge, an improved yards per route run common and a greater PFF receiving grade, Kincaid’s general manufacturing suffered on account of restricted alternatives.
His knee harm has required intensive offseason rehab, however is anticipated to heal totally. As famous by fantasy analyst Matthew Berry, accidents performed a big position in Kincaid’s disappointing sophomore marketing campaign.
On the intense aspect, if accidents have been the first purpose for Dalton Kincaid’s down 12 months in 2024, there’s nonetheless a practical path for him to guide the Bills in targets. Buffalo is returning Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel and added Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore in free company. While every receiver brings a unique talent set, none seem prone to block Kincaid from turning into the highest choice if he’s at full energy.
Kincaid will as soon as once more be catching passes from Josh Allen — the league’s reigning MVP — which must be a optimistic. However, Kincaid noticed the third-most uncatchable targets amongst tight ends in 2024 (25), regardless of far fewer alternatives than these forward of him: Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. His 34% uncatchable goal charge was the second highest amongst tight ends with at the very least 25 targets. Knox ranked third, suggesting this was extra of a Josh Allen challenge than a Kincaid one.
Injuries could have affected Kincaid’s route-running precision, resulting in miscommunications with Allen. Still, lots of the points have been merely about ball placement. Ideally, that’s one thing that may be corrected with extra chemistry and reps in coaching camp.
If we ignore Kincaid’s lowered route quantity and easily apply a league-average uncatchable move charge, his per-game common would have risen to 10 PPR factors, good for a TE12 end.
Kincaid faces a number of hurdles heading into 2025, together with unsure enjoying time, latest accidents and shaky chemistry with Josh Allen. However, if final season’s struggles have been primarily injury-related, there’s nonetheless loads of upside. A completely wholesome Kincaid has the expertise and alternative to interrupt out and ship one of the best season of his profession.