Welcome to a particular pre-holiday version of From the Politics Desk, a night e-newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics group’s newest reporting and evaluation from the White House, Capitol Hill and the marketing campaign path.
Today, we glance again on the main storylines that outlined the 12 months that was. We’re off the remainder of the week, however we’ll be again in your inbox subsequent Monday with a preview of the dynamics that can form 2025.
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5 storylines that outlined 2024
By Mark Murray
With the 12 months coming to an in depth, President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House, President Joe Biden exiting and a brand new Congress beginning subsequent month, right here’s a rundown of the highest political storylines that formed 2024 — in descending order.
5. Trump’s simple path to the GOP nomination. It’s vital to do not forget that initially of the 2024 cycle, it wasn’t a assure Trump could be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was operating near Trump in early polls; Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., had some early momentum and cash; and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley had the makings of a formidable challenger.
But ultimately, Trump received each GOP nominating contest — with the exceptions of Vermont and Washington, D.C.
Even after his 2020 defeat, the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol, and the social gathering’s disappointing efficiency within the 2022 midterms, Trump’s stranglehold over the GOP was evident within the pre-primary polls exhibiting half of Republican voters or extra wished him to proceed because the social gathering’s chief.
4. Trump’s authorized challenges that fizzled away. 2024 featured the break up display screen of exercise on the marketing campaign path and drama within the courtroom.
Trump confronted 4 separate indictments and was finally convicted on 34 felony counts within the hush cash case. They had been all alleged to symbolize one of many defining moments of the election.
But politically, they largely solely served to assist Trump additional rally the GOP base round him. And most of the circumstances fizzled away after Trump was in a position to delay proceedings and sentencing, and after he received in November.
3. The presidential debate that modified the whole lot. Heading into June’s debate — the earliest general-election faceoff in reminiscence — many citizens already had considerations about President Joe Biden’s age and health to serve one other time period.
And the talk solely confirmed these worries, as he often stumbled over his phrases and got here throughout as feeble onstage.
The efficiency instantly set off Democratic alarm bells. But Biden vowed he would stay within the race, whilst calls from inside his personal social gathering for him to step apart grew louder. He dropped out a month later.
2. Harris turned extra fashionable than Biden (however not considerably extra fashionable than Trump). Immediately after Biden’s exit, the Democratic Party coalesced round Vice President Kamala Harris, who loved a political honeymoon.
In the last NBC News ballot earlier than the election, Harris had a good score of 43% optimistic, 50% destructive (-7 web score) — considerably larger than Biden’s rating of 35% optimistic, 52% destructive (-17).
But Harris’ numbers weren’t far faraway from Trump’s: 42% optimistic, 51% destructive (-9).
1. Concerns about inflation and the economic system doomed the Democrats. In the tip, it was the economic system, silly.
Despite robust job creation and inflation cooling to its lowest degree since 2021, most American voters weren’t pleased with the economic system or Biden’s dealing with of it.
Two-thirds stated their household’s earnings was falling behind the price of residing, and solely 25% of voters stated Biden’s insurance policies had been serving to their household (in contrast with 44% who stated that about Trump when he was president), based on NBC News polling.
And per the NBC News Exit Poll, 32% of voters stated the economic system was their most vital problem — and Trump bested Harris amongst these voters 81% to 18%.
Why 2024 was the final word ‘what if’ election
By Chuck Todd
There are so many vacation traditions in Washington — congressional negotiations that go too lengthy, crowded events, inhumane visitors across the National Christmas Tree lighting.
But one vacation custom that we stay up for is our annual “What If” collection of other historical past episodes on the Chuck ToddForged. Every 12 months, we ask our listeners to share their favourite concepts for doable twists and turns in historical past that would have modified the whole lot about politics.
This 12 months, our listeners requested about all the opposite methods the 2024 election may need performed out. They additionally requested questions on Donald Trump (What if Trump purchased the Buffalo Bills in 2014?), American historical past (What if George Washington ran for a 3rd time period?), and so many extra. We had questions on Jeb Bush and Ross Perot, concerning the Gulf War and the Cold War … somebody even shared a wise query about Democrats’ disastrous 2020 Iowa caucuses.
Asking these questions are about extra than simply scratching an itch, however about investigating how the exhausting certainties of our world may have been essentially totally different, and asking what that will have stated about our nation, our historical past and ourselves.
We’re kicking off this 12 months’s collection with certainly one of my favourite various historical past connoisseurs, Politico’s Jonathan Martin, to speak about what different twists and turns we’d have seen within the 2024 election. You would possibly assume that an election 12 months like 2024, with so many sudden developments, would fulfill anybody’s curiosity for asking “What if?” — however in a 12 months that would have been its personal various historical past, the probabilities are limitless.
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you might have suggestions — likes or dislikes — electronic mail us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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