Vice President Kamala Harris nonetheless has a large lead over former President Donald Trump amongst Black voters in battleground states, in line with a brand new ballot, which exhibits a key slice of undecided Black voters nonetheless poised to decide in regards to the presidential election.
The findings, from a Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion ballot of 981 seemingly Black voters in battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — present that 84% of seemingly Black voters will assist Harris in November and eight% say they’ll assist Trump. Another 8% are undecided.
The outcomes are largely throughout the margin of error of the earlier version of the survey from September, although they present a small slip for Trump. The September ballot confirmed Harris at 82% (2 factors decrease than now), Trump’s assist at 12% (4 factors increased), and 6% undecided or in favor of one other candidate.
As many as 66% of Black voters report being very excited to vote for president in November, together with 35% who’re nonetheless undecided about whom they’ll vote for.
While an amazing majority of Black voters total plan to assist Harris, the info exhibits a small shift amongst independents from a month in the past.
Self-described Democrats and Republicans (together with independents who lean towards both celebration) stayed constant of their assist for Harris and Trump. Support for Trump amongst unbiased Black voters is a large 18%, up from 12% in September.
The share of independents who stated they’re undecided additionally went up since September — 26% in comparison with 20%.
It’s price noting that the sector dates have been Sept. 4-11, so most respondents have been interviewed earlier than the Sept. 10 debate.
Yet, whereas some demographic subgroups are barely much less more likely to say they’ll vote for Harris within the new ballot, Trump’s numbers amongst these teams within the head-to-head race didn’t transfer. Why? Those voters are shifting to say they’re undecided.
Gender and age divides: Young Black males are almost definitely to assist Trump
The newest ballot findings present that Harris is main Trump by 81 factors amongst Black girls, however solely 59 factors amongst Black males. The identical share of women and men — 10% — say they’re undecided.
Black voters assist Harris by giant margins throughout all age teams, however her margin amongst younger voters (63 factors) is far smaller than her margin amongst older voters (82 factors).
Trump garnered 21% assist amongst Black males below 50 years of age, with Harris at 68% — a comparatively small margin for Harris at +47 factors. Another 11% are undecided.
Harris holds robust amongst younger Black girls, with a 75-point lead, however 12% are nonetheless undecided.
Gender divide on the problems
As many as 22% of Black voters stated democracy/voting rights/elections are crucial subject to them of their vote for president. Another 19% selected economic system/jobs/wages, 16% stated abortion/girls’s well being care/girls’s rights and 10% stated inflation/value of dwelling.
There are stark variations by gender.
Black males cited democracy and the economic system as crucial points to their vote (22% assist for every), adopted by “different” (13%), and inflation (9%), honesty/integrity/character (7%), and abortion and anti-Trump rhetoric (6% every).
Black girls cited abortion as the highest subject (21%) to their vote, adopted intently behind by democracy (19%) and the economic system (18%).
Across gender teams by partisanship and age, abortion didn’t hit the highest 5 points for males and anti-Trump rhetoric didn’t make the highest 5 points for girls.
Among undecided Black voters, 19% stated the economic system is crucial subject to their vote, adopted by inflation/value of dwelling (14%).
The Howard Initiative on Public Opinion designed and administered the multimodal survey of 981 seemingly voters who self-identified as African American or Black and indicated they have been registered to vote in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The survey was carried out Oct. 2-8 by text-to-web on-line surveys and phone (landline and cellphone) interviews. The margin of error for seemingly voters is plus or minus 3.2 share factors.