New Delhi:
Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, and the Nationalist Congress Party offshoot led by Ajit Pawar, flipped 75 seats – from their dad or mum events to the pocket of allies Bharatiya Janata Party – to make sure that the ruling Mahayuti alliance dominated the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election.
The flip underlines the affect of the Sena and NCP cut up – the previous in 2022 and the latter a 12 months later – on the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi. Sans these 75 seats, it could not counter a BJP that received 134 of 149 seats for a strike price of 89.2 per cent – and recorded its greatest solo rating in a Maharashtra election.
The MVA was decimated – after claiming victory within the April-June federal election, through which it received 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats – and completed with solely 45 to its identify. The hole is 89 – nearly precisely the quantity that the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP received off their dad or mum events.
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Its solo present apart, the BJP will nonetheless want the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s seats to cross the bulk mark of 145. And it’s these two that may put its bigger ally completely out of attain of the MVA.
Overall, the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar are on target to win 98 seats.
Where Did The 98 Come From?
Only a small chunk – lower than two dozen total – comes from winnings seats contested by different events (principally the BJP or Congress) in 2019 and given to the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar this time.
The relaxation have been flipped from their dad or mum events.
The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP contested 81 and 59 seats on this election, and they’re main in 57 (47 wins, 10 leads) and 41 (37 wins, 4 leads), respectively.
On the opposite facet, Thackeray’s Sena contested 95 seats however is main solely in 20 (18 wins, two leads), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP contested 86 seats however received solely 11.
Of the Shinde Sena’s 57 leads+wins, 40 had been received by the undivided Sena within the 2019 election.
Similarly, of Ajit Pawar’s NCP’s 37 leads+wins, 35 had been received by Sharad Pawar’s NCP.
Had the Sena and NCP not cut up, it could have handed the MVA these 75 seats.
These wouldn’t, maybe, have been sufficient for the Maha Vikas Aghadi to win this election, however it could actually have been sufficient to push the BJP to a a lot nearer end.
The ‘Legacy’ Question Settled?
After the Sena and NCP cut up of 2022 and 2023, the burning query was about legacy.
Mr Shinde claimed he compelled the Sena division as a result of he felt Uddhav Thackeray had ‘deserted’ the ideology of his late father and celebration founder Bal Thackeray. Mr Thackeray hotly denounced that declare however this election was broadly seen as an important check of identification – who is the ‘actual’ Shiv Sena?
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Based on these outcomes, it could seem like Mr Shinde’s camp, which has misplaced no time in claiming that title. His son, Shrikant Shinde, was among the many first to take action (with a swipe at Mr Thackeray). “Shiv Sena is just not a personal firm… folks have proven who’s taking Balasaheb’s beliefs ahead,” he stated.
It wasn’t simply the Shinde Sena that moved to assert the title.
Devendra Fadnavis – who joined Mr Shinde in enjoying coy when requested who would turn into the subsequent Chief Minister – declared, after the consequence was settled, “The folks of Maharashtra have proven that the celebration headed by Eknath Shinde is the actual Shiv Sena of Balasaheb Thackeray.”
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But maybe the largest sting on the Thackeray Sena got here from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, throughout campaigning, endorsed Mr Shinde’s declare and known as Mr Thackeray a “faux youngster”.
The identical query – which is the ‘actual’ celebration after the cut up – additionally seems to have been settled for the NCP, which broke after Ajit Pawar’s riot. But for Pawar junior, who led an earlier failed riot, the difficulty has been extra about stepping out of the (very) massive shadow of his uncle, Sharad Pawar.
This is Sharad Pawar’s worst ever election consequence and it focuses consideration on his huge assertion earlier this month; the veteran stated he had no plans to contest any extra elections and may even retire when his Rajya Sabha time period ends in 18 months. This loss may immediate him to maneuver that deadline up.
This was, maybe, extra of an existential battle for the Pawars than it was for the Shiv Sena.
READ | For Sharad Pawar, This Maharashtra Election Defeat Was Personal
In the April-June federal election, the primary main ballot after the cut up, Sharad Pawar received out. A second consecutive win over his nephew’s insurgent faction, significantly with a authorized battle over his celebration’s electoral image nonetheless enjoying out within the Supreme Court, might have crushed the Ajit Pawar NCP.
But that was to not be.
Ultimately, nonetheless, in politics nothing is ever sure.
Yes, the Thackeray Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP had been trounced immediately, however each are canny politicians who nonetheless maintain appreciable affect in Maharashtra political circles. But if they’re to mount a comeback then that begins immediately, for they should attain out to the voters, to their former supporters, and work out how and why these 75 seats slipped from their fingers and into their direct rivals.
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