• Will Geno Smith discover deep passing success towards the Cardinals? Smith ranks seventh in deep passing grade, however Arizona has been one of the crucial stout defenses in shutting down the lengthy ball.
• How will Caleb Williams play towards the blitz-heavy Vikings? Nobody blitzes greater than Minnesota, however Williams has fared nicely when groups ship additional rushers.
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the end result of each soccer sport is influenced by the 22 gamers on every group’s facet, analyzing the area of interest, micro-level battles that may outline a consequence provides an additional layer of nuance. That consists of gamers or models battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 11’s focus on the Steelers stopping Lamar Jackson’s scrambling (zero scrambles for zero yards) and the Falcons’ outside-zone speeding assault (11 carries for 26 yards and 0 first downs) performed massive roles in dictating which groups received. Now, let’s flip the script to Week 12.
Whether power towards power, weak spot towards weak spot or just a person struggle of nice consequence, listed here are six matchups with a major chance of figuring out winners this week.
Josh Jacobs vs. 49ers’ heavy packing containers
Arguably the largest sport of this week’s NFL slate comes throughout Sunday’s second window, the place the 5-5 49ers look to get their season again on monitor earlier than the hourglass runs out of sand. To defeat the 7-3 Packers, they’ll have to make a concerted effort to cease Josh Jacobs, one of many NFL’s greatest operating backs this yr. That could also be simpler stated than executed from a schematic standpoint.
The 49ers have usually floundered all yr when making an attempt to load up the field to cease the run. San Francisco ranks 29th in yards earlier than contact allowed when eight or extra gamers are within the field, to not point out 25th in explosive run price. The 49ers have utilized eight-plus defenders within the field on runs on 100 performs, the 14th most within the league.
On the flip facet, Jacobs has not fared nicely when coping with a clogged center of the sphere. His 66.1 PFF speeding grade with eight or extra field defenders ranks 28th amongst qualifying rushers. Contrast that together with his 90.2 PFF speeding grade with seven or fewer field gamers, which ranks fourth, and it’s clear the place he thrives.
Will Jacobs discover a strategy to lastly crack via loaded packing containers, opening up extra via the air for Jordan Love and Green Bay? Or will the 49ers stack the field and sluggish Jacobs sufficient in what figures to be a high-scoring sport? Whichever facet wins this in-game conflict ought to get the sting.
Geno Smith’s deep passing vs. Cardinals
We not often see a wide-open NFL division via 11 weeks in a season, however that’s exactly what the NFC West has been this yr. Sunday’s battle between the Cardinals and Seahawks might be monumental in shaking out the division’s pecking order — and it could come right down to Geno Smith’s deep ball.
Smith’s 93.0 deep passing grade ranks seventh amongst certified quarterbacks, and his 13 big-time throws are tied for the fourth most. After all, when you have got D.Ok. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at your disposal, it is smart to lean closely on vertical routes down the sphere.
But, the Cardinals have truly been fairly stingy towards 20-plus-yard makes an attempt. Arizona ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed towards deep passes whereas inserting second in group protection grade. Rising second-year cornerback Garrett Williams is the NFL’s highest-graded defender on deep makes an attempt, posting an elite 92.8 PFF protection grade. Only two of Williams’ 9 deep targets have been caught, and the Syracuse product has racked up three compelled incompletions and a decide.
Will different Arizona defenders be a part of the group’s upstart slot man in deep passing success, or will Smith launch to his crop of wideouts down the sphere for explosive positive factors? If the Cardinals don’t get gashed via the air, they’ll have an actual shot to remain atop the NFC West the remainder of the yr; but when not, the Seahawks may get proper again to first place.
Highest-Graded Deep Passers in 2024
Eagles’ protection vs. Rams‘ out routes
Sunday Night Football gives us a second straight attractive battle from SoFi Stadium, particularly factoring within the power of the Eagles’ protection towards the Rams’ high-powered offense. Particularly attention-grabbing is how nicely Philadelphia will deal with Los Angeles’ most common go idea: the out route.
Matthew Stafford has focused out routes 56 instances, the second most in soccer. On prime of that, his 77.6 PFF passing grade on out routes ranks 11th. It shouldn’t be a shock to study that Cooper Kupp’s 17 out-route targets are the seventh most in soccer and that his 76.0 PFF receiving grade is a top-30 mark amongst all pass-catchers on the idea.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s revitalized protection has clamped down towards out routes. The Eagles rank 10th in group protection grade towards outs, led by the standout play of rookie Cooper DeJean. DeJean has been one of many NFL’s greatest defenders towards out routes, no matter place. His 87.6 PFF protection grade towards the idea ranks fourth, having permitted solely two catches for 9 yards on six out-route targets.
How a lot will DeJean shadow Kupp and Puka Nacua, and might he shut area exterior the numbers? Or will Stafford get in rhythm alongside the boundary earlier than dialing up deeper photographs? If the Rams wish to pull off the upset and earn an important convention win, they’ll want their quarterback and receivers to excel within the exact areas the place they dominate.
Caleb Williams vs. Vikings’ blitz
Although the Bears fell by the hands of their nemesis but once more in Week 11, the group’s displaying was truly fairly encouraging — particularly from Williams, who posted a stellar 85.2 PFF general grade. Now, the No. 1 general decide will get one other crack at beating a proficient rival, particularly if he can deal with the blitz.
Williams was marvelous when Green Bay despatched an additional rusher final week, finishing 8-of-10 passes for 87 yards and a big-time throw to safe a 94.5 PFF general grade. He has handled blitzes nicely all yr, as his 70.9 PFF general grade when blitzed ranks 13th and is significantly larger than his grade when not blitzed (60.2). One device in Williams’ field towards the blitz is operating: His 75.7 PFF speeding grade in such conditions is tied for ninth.
Brian Flores’ philosophy is evident: blitz early and infrequently. The Vikings personal the very best blitz price within the league (50.5%). Given the flexibility and near-positionless nature of many Minnesota defenders, it seems like virtually any Viking can come from any angle at any time. That’s fueled Minnesota to rank seventh in EPA per play and fourth in success price when blitzing.
Will Williams string collectively two spectacular outings towards premier divisional defenses, particularly standing tall towards strain? Or will Flores’ advanced seems pace up the rookie’s inner clock? In a sport that includes two stout defenses, Williams might want to step up if the Bears wish to finish their four-game skid.
Lamar Jackson vs. Chargers’ zone protection
The Chargers entered Week 11 with a near-unblemished stretch of defensive play. That modified significantly, although, after the Bengals scored 27 factors and averaged 0.123 EPA per play in Los Angeles on primetime. After securing a slender win, the Chargers get one other crack at one of many NFL’s greatest quarterbacks — who additionally presents a serious headache towards one of many group’s fortitudes.
Lamar Jackson sits atop a number of notable superior classes, together with main the league in PFF general and passing grades. That extends to his play towards zone protection, the place Jackson has been the most effective quarterback within the NFL (90.4 PFF passing grade). Likewise, Jackson has dedicated a turnover-worthy play on simply 1.1% of makes an attempt towards zone, the bottom price within the NFL.
However, the Chargers are an especially zone-heavy group, operating both Cover 2, 3 or 4 on 65.1% of their snaps. That system has usually labored for Jesse Minter’s bunch, with Los Angeles posting the fifth-best zone protection grade of any group. Even as Joe Burrow unleashed a number of big-time throws in SoFi Stadium, he was held in verify towards zone. The Bengals passer accomplished 20-of-36 makes an attempt for 223 yards, two big-time throws, one turnover-worthy play and a 67.2 PFF passing grade towards zone. All instructed, these numbers are pedestrian for a participant of his caliber.
Jackson is coming off his worst sport of the season, largely due to weakened effectiveness towards the Steelers’ man protection. But, Los Angeles has run Cover 1 on solely 8.3% of its defensive snaps. Will Minter keep true to his zone-rooted identification, or will he sprinkle in additional man — and the way will Jackson react? The Ravens quarterback’s play towards cloud protection will drive how this potential playoff matchup goes.
Anthony Richardson’s straight dropbacks vs. Lions
Although Colts-Jets in Week 11 wasn’t a marquee matchup, it did reveal a quite notable improvement: an improved Anthony Richardson. The second-year signal-caller generated an 80.3 PFF passing grade, the most effective in his 11-game NFL profession thus far. Now, Richardson will oppose an excellent stingier protection within the Lions, whose well-rounded assault could trigger issues.
Part of why Richardson was a lot better in Week 11 was his play exterior of play motion. His 90.0 PFF general grade on 17 dropbacks (in comparison with 15 play-action dropbacks) was the second highest of any beginning quarterback final week. He accomplished 11-of-15 such passes for 172 yards, a big-time throw and 0 turnover-worthy performs. Along comparable traces, Richardson was additionally terrific when not throwing to screens, securing an 81.7 PFF general grade.
However, Detroit has been among the many NFL’s greatest defenses in these eventualities. The Lions rank seventh in EPA per play in non-play motion dropbacks and are fourth in non-screen seems.
Will Shane Steichen lean towards extra conventional makes an attempt for Richardson, the place he clearly seemed extra snug? Or will the Colts strive extra play motion, the place Richardson has been higher all yr — posting a 61.7 PFF general grade in comparison with a 53.6 mark on customary dropbacks? Richardson’s nuanced efficiency and Indianapolis’ play-calling will decide if the Colts can execute an amazing upset at dwelling.