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Estimated studying time: 7 minutes
Fantasy and DFS fanatics, bettors and analysts typically depend on a wide selection of statistics and fashions to realize a aggressive edge. These vary from primary field rating stats to superior metrics obtainable in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is all the time room for brand new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that provides a number of benefits over WOPR. Click right here for an in-depth clarification of the mannequin, my course of and its benefits.
Week 14 Recap
The mannequin had a robust bounce-back efficiency in Week 14 after a slight dip in Week 13. It appropriately recognized six top-26 vast receivers out of 10 gamers evaluated. In complete, 60% of the mannequin’s choices completed at or higher than WR26.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 15
As a fast reminder of how regression-to-the-mean fashions work, I predict a participant’s FPpG based mostly on their three-week PWOPR (defined extra right here).
PWOPR is way more secure than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future efficiency. To determine potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the participant’s predicted FPpG from their precise FPpG. Players with a very good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or decrease seem on this record. Players will proceed to look till one of many following happens:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with an enormous sport
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their anticipated FPpG
A.J. Brown: Brown impressed the underlying play-by-play mannequin that drives the Route-Based Heroes sport mannequin, and he faces an intriguing matchup towards the Steelers. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has the third-worst protection unit within the NFL whereas deploying the very best middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) fee. However, the Steelers additionally rank first in PFF’s staff pass-rush grade and sixth in fast strain fee. If Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offensive line can deal with the strain, this could possibly be a breakout sport for Brown.
Garrett Wilson: Wilson delivered a strong efficiency in Week 14 after showing on the mannequin, however in comparison with his PWOPR, there’s nonetheless room for enchancment. He has a fantastic alternative in Week 15 towards the Jaguars. Jacksonville permits one of many highest charges of single protection within the NFL, ranks sixteenth in protection and generates the league’s worst fast strain fee (10.3%).
D.Okay. Metcalf: Metcalf had a lackluster Week 14 after showing within the mannequin, and he may face extra difficulties towards the Packers in Week 15. Green Bay boasts the NFL’s seventh-best staff protection grade and makes use of middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection on the Eleventh-highest fee within the league. The Packers additionally enable single protection on the lowest fee within the NFL, which may restrict Metcalf’s probabilities for giant performs.
DeVonta Smith: Smith has the identical matchup as Brown, with double the necessity for optimistic regression. This could possibly be a fantastic signal for a common optimistic passing regression for the Eagles, or possibly an indication that Jalen Hurts is struggling to get the ball to his elite receiving corps.
Calvin Ridley: Ridley has been a favourite of the mannequin in 2024. Last week, he noticed 12 targets however solely managed a middling efficiency from his seven receptions. In Week 15, he faces the Bengals, who current a good matchup with the sixth-worst PFF staff protection grade. However, Cincinnati runs middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection on the second-highest fee within the league, which frequently limits manufacturing for elite vast receivers.
Xavier Legette: Legette was poised for an enormous sport final week, however a essential drop late within the sport doubtless price him a landing. He seems within the mannequin once more this week and faces the Cowboys, who run a mixture of middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) and middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) coverages. Dallas has the ninth-worst staff protection grade, based on PFF, however they generate the second-most fast strain within the NFL. This may pose a problem for Bryce Young and restrict Legette’s alternatives.
Josh Palmer/Quentin Johnston: Both Chargers receivers delivered strong performances on Sunday Night Football, however after Justin Herbert missed Palmer on a possible 60-plus-yard landing and made just a few different misreads, they’re again within the mannequin this week. They face an thrilling matchup towards the Bucs, who deploy middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) protection on the sixth-highest fee, boast the ninth-best PFF protection grade and generate probably the most fast strain within the NFL.
Christian Watson/Dontayvion Wicks: The younger Packers duo faces the Seahawks, who use middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection on the highest fee within the NFL and have the third-best PFF staff protection grade. Neither issue favors an elite efficiency, however the Seahawks’ tendency to move continuously may create extra alternatives for each offenses on this matchup.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel faces the Rams, a staff that ranks center of the pack in most defensive classes. However, Los Angeles has the third-worst staff tackling grade, a weak point Samuel — a YAC specialist — is well-equipped to take advantage of.
Last week’s heroes who had been on bye: Zay Flowers, Tank Dell and Noah Brown.
As all the time, not each participant on this record will ship, however a number of are well-positioned to exceed their current common PPR, with just a few doubtlessly delivering explosive performances. Thank you for studying!
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