2024 College Football Early Bowl Games: Betting market replace

Welcome to PFF’s first betting market replace of bowl season.

This article will clarify the elements that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.

If you aren’t acquainted, click on right here for a deeper clarification of what we goal to realize every week with our NFL model of this text. For the Round 1 CFP model, click on right here.

Market dynamics are vastly totally different in bowl video games and largely pushed by switch portal entries, participant opt-outs and training modifications. It’s widespread to see excessive swings in spreads and totals main as much as and even on gameday as shock opt-outs are introduced. One approach to acquire an edge in bowl season is handicapping groups’ motivation, which is extra of an artwork than a science. 

An fascinating wrinkle to bear in mind is that gamers who’ve entered the portal can nonetheless play in bowl video games. This pattern could turn out to be extra widespread with latest developments of NIL and revenue-sharing. 

SOUTH ALABAMA VS. WESTERN MICHIGAN

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

Spread: After opening up at 9.5, the primary transfer despatched this line to 10.5. From there, it’s been all Western Michigan driving this quantity down. Uncertainty across the standing of QB Gio Lopez (South Alabama) is taking part in a task. Portal-wise, the Jaguars might be with out their most explosive operating again and a key defensive again. The market is at the moment break up between 7.5 and eight. 

Total: It was a fast slide down three factors from the opener to 60.5. This quantity hasn’t moved a lot during the last two days.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

MEMPHIS VS. WEST VIRGINIA

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl

Spread: Huge swing right here with a nine-point transfer crossing via each key numbers of three. Within 24 hours of opening final week, Memphis was already a small favourite. That motion has continued, and a part of it’s linked to Neal Brown being fired as the pinnacle coach at WVU. Newly re-hired Rich Rodriguez is not going to coach the bowl sport. An fascinating word is that WVU reportedly has near 100% bowl participation regardless of the teaching change.

Total: The complete market initially dipped earlier than bouncing again as much as and thru the opening 58.5. Most books are at 59, however we’ve but to see something increased than that. 

Buy/Sell: I’ll promote the Memphis transfer and take the Mountaineers at +4.5 in QB Garrett Greene’s farewell sport. This is a big transfer contemplating studies that a lot of the group will play. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

WESTERN KENTUCKY VS. JAMES MADISON

Boca Raton Bowl

Spread: It’s been one-way motion driving this line up on JMU via 7 and out to 9.5. We’ve but to see a ten pop up, however as you’ll be able to see beneath, Western Kentucky has fairly a number of entries into the portal, together with beginning QB Caden Veltkamp. JMU gained’t be at 100% both with QB Alonza Barnett out with an damage. 

Total: Not a lot right here, with 52.5s throughout the board. This hasn’t fluctuated greater than a degree in both course.

Buy/Sell: I’ll promote the JMU motion and lock within the Hilltoppers at +9.5. That’s lots of factors, and there’s a non-zero probability that Veltkamp and different portal entries will nonetheless play this sport. If Veltkamp fits up, this quantity gained’t be +9.5. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

CAL VS. UNLV

Art of Sport LA Bowl

Spread: After opening at -1.5, Barry Odom’s departure helped transfer this line to as excessive as Cal -3.5. That quantity has since dropped and returned to the opener, with Cal set to be down beginning QB Fernando Mendoza and doubtlessly backup QB Chandler Rogers. 

Total: This is down one level from the opener and is 50.5 at practically each e-book. 

Buy/Sell: I’ll purchase in on the underneath at 50.5 with quarterback issues and a deflated UNLV group narrowly lacking the College Football Playoff, solely simply to lose its head coach. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

GEORGIA SOUTHERN VS. SAM HOUSTON STATE

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Spread: A swath of Sam Houston State gamers have opted to enter the portal after dropping their head coach. At this time, Georgia Southern has but to see a portal entry from a participant who took greater than 100 snaps this previous season. This line has pushed all the way in which to 7, however we noticed some market resistance at that time. It’s since dropped to six, and there are a few books which have moved to five.5. 

Total: The market is at the moment break up between 48.5 and 49. This complete sat at 47.5 for a pair days earlier than shifting up a degree.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

OHIO VS. JACKSONVILLE STATE

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

Spread: With Rich Rodriguez taking the nation highway residence, we’ve seen a few guys put their names within the portal. Ohio can also be down its head coach, with Tim Albin taking the Charlotte opening. This line was shifting because the Rodriguez hypothesis was heating up. It has pushed out and previous 3, however we have now seen 3.5 as a resistance level. Unless we see extra participant motion, I don’t suppose this one will get a lot increased.

Total: The complete has fluctuated between 53 and 55 earlier than settling at 54.5. There are nonetheless a few 54s.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

TULANE VS. FLORIDA

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Spread: It’s been all Gator cash taking this from the opener of 8.5 to a two-touchdown favourite. Most of the motion right here is tied to Tulane beginning quarterback Darian Mensah already having dedicated to Duke from his quick portal stint. This might be one other constructing block for coach Billy Napier after a promising end to the season, having performed one of many hardest schedules in latest historical past. We have seen some buy-back on Tulane when the road hit 14.5. 

Total: The complete has fluctuated as excessive as 52 and as little as 49 earlier than touchdown again on the opening variety of 50.5.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)