Storylines, matchups and predictions for the 5 greatest video games

• Tennessee–Oklahoma: Two top-15 groups meet in Oklahoma’s first convention recreation as an SEC workforce.

• Utah–Oklahoma State: The winner of this top-15 matchup will change into the favourite in a wide-open Big 12 convention.

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Estimated Reading Time: 20 minutes

Week 3 was fairly tame by faculty soccer’s requirements. Only two ranked groups misplaced, and so they got here to different higher-ranked groups. Week 4 guarantees to be much more engaging with 4 video games between top-25 groups, probably the most of any slate to this point this season.

Here are the storylines to know, matchups to observe and predictions for six of the largest video games this weekend.

No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 22 Nebraska Cornhuskers (Friday, 8 PM EST on FOX)

Storyline to know: First ranked recreation between these two applications in practically 40 years

Friday’s assembly between Illinois and Nebraska is the twenty second all-time between the 2 applications. It’s additionally the second occasion the place each the Fighting Illini and Cornhuskers entered the sport inside the highest 25 — the primary since 1985.

Illinois is ranked for the primary time in two years and has its first 3-0 begin for the reason that 2011 season. Nebraska is within the prime 25 for the primary time in 5 years with its first 3-0 begin since 2016. The winner of this recreation continues its ascension whereas the loser will get a bucket of ice water poured onto its sizzling begin.

Matchup to observe when Illinois has the ball (Dalton): Can Illinois’ new offensive tackles maintain their early season success?

Any preseason optimism for the Fighting Illini this yr needed to be paired with expectations of enchancment for an offensive line that struggled mightily final season. Simply put, it was a subpar group in 2023 and their total offense felt the results.

Illinois Offensive line  2023

While it was a good run-blocking unit, the Illinois offensive line was dysfunctional in move safety final season, which disrupted the stream of their total offense and ultimately prompted an damage to quarterback Luke Altmyer.

The identical inside group stays this season, however each beginning offensive tackles graduated, leaving questions on what the answer can be. The Fighting Illini have discovered that resolution in two transfers. They added left sort out J.C. Davis, who ranked third in general grade amongst offensive tackles final season, from New Mexico. They additionally acquired proper sort out Melvin Priestly from Grambling State, and the outcomes have been beautiful this yr.

Davis has been a constant presence to this point, posting a 71.4 general grade and permitting simply two pressures by three video games. Priestly has been a revelation as he presently ranks sixth within the nation in general grade and fifth in run blocking grade. These two gamers have set the tone for the remainder of the offense to succeed. 

Luke Altmyer is an effective quarterback with big splits between his clear and pressured efficiency. The higher his safety is, the extra he’ll succeed. Illinois is presently averaging 5 yards per carry within the run recreation. These new offensive tackles have allowed them to stability their offense. They’ll want that manufacturing and stability as they sq. off with Ty Robinson and Nebraska’s stout defensive entrance.

Matchup to observe when Nebraska has the ball (Max): Dylan Raiola in opposition to his hardest check but

Dylan Raiola has impressed by the primary three video games of his collegiate profession. The former five-star recruit’s 76.4 passing grade leads all true freshmen within the nation. While he’s able to making any throw within the playbook, it’s his maturity that has stood out probably the most to this point. Raiola’s 1.1% turnover-worthy play charge this yr is second amongst Big Ten quarterbacks to solely Dillon Gabriel.

He’ll now face a protection that has compelled loads of errors from opposing signal-callers. Quarterbacks in opposition to Illinois have only a 46.5 passing grade this season with one big-time throw and 9 turnover-worthy performs. Kansas’ Jalon Daniels, who entered the season as a top-five quarterback on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft large board, dedicated 4 turnover-worthy performs in opposition to the Illini on his solution to a 44.9 passing grade. Each of these marks was the worst he’s had for the reason that 2020 season when he was a real freshman. Illinois runs Cover 1 on the second-highest charge within the Power Four (55.5%), that means the Fighting Illini shall be daring Raiola and his receivers to beat them one-on-one. So far this season, Raiola has only a 47.2 passing grade in opposition to man protection.

Predictions

Max: Nebraska 23, Illinois 17

Illinois has the protection to make Raiola uncomfortable on this recreation, however the Fighting Illini received’t get sufficient from its offense to in the end pull off the upset.

Dalton: Nebraska 19, Illinois 16

This recreation options two groups who’re extremely related. It may very effectively come all the way down to the ultimate seconds. Dylan Raiola’s poise makes the distinction in a good recreation.

No. 11 USC Trojans at No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (3:30 PM EST on CBS)

Storyline to know: Two applications that misplaced first-round quarterbacks and are dealing with it very in another way

Both USC (Caleb Williams) and Michigan (J.J. McCarthy) noticed their quarterbacks get chosen inside the first 10 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. 

For Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, it’s enterprise as common. Since Riley turned a head coach in 2017, each considered one of his 5 quarterbacks has gone on to be drafted into the NFL. Three of them have been Heisman winners (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Williams) whereas 4 are presently beginning within the league (Mayfield, Murray, Williams and Jalen Hurts). Williams’ substitute, Miller Moss, is presently fourth amongst FBS signal-callers with a 90.8 PFF grade. 

Meanwhile, Michigan is having much more problem changing its star quarterback. Davis Warren has already thrown six interceptions, tied for probably the most within the Power Four. He was benched this previous weekend following a 58.3 passing grade in opposition to Arkansas State. His substitute, Alex Orji, solely has seven profession passing makes an attempt and can make his first profession begin in opposition to the Trojans this weekend.

Matchup to observe when Michigan has the ball (Dalton): Michigan’s run recreation vs. USC’s defensive entrance

Through three video games, Michigan has not been capable of finding its footing within the passing recreation. The Wolverines’ dashing assault regarded higher final week, because it totaled 309 yards versus Arkansas State. Now, that Michigan is making the swap to Alex Orji as its beginning quarterback, the Wolverines will prone to lean into the run recreation much more.

The Trojans’ defensive entrance will face its greatest check but underneath defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. The Trojans have proven enchancment to this point this season. Last yr, USC ranked sixtieth within the Power Five in EPA allowed per designed rush. This yr, the Trojans are as much as thirty fifth. They posted a stable 77.6 run-defense grade just a few weeks in the past in opposition to LSU and its glorious offensive line.

USC isn’t essentially getting an excellent particular person efficiency from its entrance seven, however the Trojans have a deep group of gamers able to producing at an sufficient degree. Expect them to make use of a heavier dosage of the five-man entrance that Lynn was profitable with throughout his time at UCLA.

Matchup to observe when USC has the ball (Max): Can Michigan cowl USC’s receivers effectively sufficient for the line of defense to get dwelling?

Michigan entered the season with my No. 2 line of defense in faculty soccer and actually had a powerful case to be on the prime. The Wolverines’ pair of defensive tackles, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, are presently top-15 prospects on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft large board whereas Graham is No. 1 general.

The greatest solution to neutralize a terrific line of defense is to by no means allow them to also have a probability at getting after the quarterback. Miller Moss’ 2.21-second common time to throw is presently the third-fastest in America, a stark distinction to the fashion of play USC was used to underneath Williams. Instead of attempting to make magic occur outdoors of construction as his predecessor did, Moss is working Riley’s offense with exact timing and accuracy. Michigan goes to wish its defensive backs to cowl USC’s receivers lengthy sufficient to permit Graham, Grant and the Wolverines’ different pass-rushers to get dwelling. While cornerback Will Johnson is a famous person, Michigan continues to be simply 79th within the nation with a 73.4 protection grade. 

Predictions

Max: USC 28, Michigan 20

Michigan’s uncertainty underneath heart is an excessive amount of to beat offensively whereas Moss can shortly and precisely ship to USC’s deep steady of weapons.

Dalton: USC 27, Michigan 17

Steve Sarkisian laid the muse for beating Michigan’s protection — play with tempo and keep away from Will Johnson. The Trojans discover sufficient factors to beat a one-dimensional Michigan squad.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 19 Louisville Cardinals (3:30 PM EST on ESPN2)

Storyline to know: Louisville’s first true check

We have at all times been excessive on the Cardinals, courting again to the preseason. Louisville was the No. 17 workforce in our preseason top-25 although it began the yr unranked within the AP ballot.  The Cardinals are 14th in our newest rating, 5 spots forward of the place they’re for the Associated Press.

While Louisville has regarded spectacular in its first two video games, even we’ll admit it’s onerous to take any victory laps but because of its degree of competitors. The Cardinals beat Austin Peay (an FCS college) and Jacksonville State, who’s presently 0-3 after further losses to Coastal Carolina and Eastern Michigan. Not solely is Georgia Tech the primary Power Four college that Louisville is dealing with, the Yellow Jackets additionally sport a 3-1 document and have been ranked only a couple weeks in the past.

Matchup to observe when Louisville has the ball (Dalton): Tyler Shough’s deep ball versus Georgia Tech’s secondary

Despite heavy turnover that noticed Louisville lose its beginning quarterback, prime two working backs and prime receiver, the components stays the identical — run the ball, use loads of play motion and take deep pictures downfield. Through two video games, albeit in opposition to lesser competitors, that plan has labored.

Louisville presently leads the nation with a 92.4 dashing grade. The excellent news for Georgia Tech is that it has improved dramatically in run protection, incomes a top-20 grade in that side to this point this season. The different two components of the equation might be a difficulty for the Yellow Jackets.

Since the beginning of final season, Georgia Tech ranks 96th within the nation in protection grade in opposition to deep passes. The Yellow Jackets additionally rank 73rd in protection grade in opposition to play-action in that very same timeframe.

Tyler Shough is presently holding the fourth-highest play motion charge and the Fifteenth-best deep passing grade within the FBS. This week will pose an even bigger problem than the Cardinals’ first two video games, however Georgia Tech is susceptible sufficient within the secondary, particularly at security, for Shough to have success.

Matchup to observe when Georgia Tech has the ball (Max): How does Louisville deal with Haynes King this yr?

The bread-and-butter of the Yellow Jackets’ offense is its choice run recreation with working again Jamal Haynes and quarterback Haynes King. Georgia Tech runs the ball on 52% of its performs this season whereas averaging 5.6 yards per try. While the specter of King’s mobility and a dynamic working again like Haynes would theoretically power a protection to commit extra defenders within the field, King nonetheless should be revered as a passer as he presently owns an 84.7 passing grade. 

Louisville had some problem defending Georgia Tech final yr in a 39-34 victory. The Yellow Jackets had 17 performs in that recreation that went for at the very least 10 yards, tied for probably the most Louisville allowed in a recreation all of final season. Georgia Tech utilized each blade of grass it may within the loss, as King completed with a mixed 366 yards of whole offense. The Cardinals are presently fourth within the nation with a 91.8 run-defense grade however has but to face an offense as dynamic because the Yellow Jackets have.

Predictions

Max: Louisville 31, Georgia Tech 27

Haynes King and Georgia Tech give Louisville all it might deal with, however the Cardinals are capable of survive their first trial of the season.

Dalton: Louisville 34, Georgia Tech 31

Ashton Gillotte and the Cardinals’ protection make simply sufficient performs in crunch time to flee with a win.

No. 12 Utah Utes at No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4 PM EST on FOX)

Storyline to know: The winner turns into the brand new favourite within the Big 12

Utah and Oklahoma State are two of the three Big 12 groups which might be presently within the top-15 of the AP ballot. Kansas State is sandwiched immediately between them. The Utes are the present betting favourite to win the convention at (+250) whereas the Cowboys aren’t too far behind in third at (+475), in keeping with DraftKings Sportsbook. 

The winner of this recreation will certainly be the Big 12’s highest-ranked workforce and the favourite to win the convention, whereas the loser will undergo a significant setback in what’s probably the most wide-open Power Four convention. 

Matchup to observe when Oklahoma State has the ball (Dalton): How lengthy can Alan Bowman and the receivers carry the Cowboys’ offense?

Star working again Ollie Gordon II has but to get untracked this season as opponents put together to decelerate Oklahoma State’s working recreation. In response, quarterback Alan Bowman obtained off to an excellent begin and led the Cowboys to a few straight wins.

Can they proceed that components in opposition to a Utah protection whose protection is their greatest attribute?

Bowman, together with receivers De’Zhaun Stribling, Rashod Owens, and Brennan Presley, are specialists within the fast passing recreation. Bowman had the Thirteenth-fastest common time within the FBS final season and presently holds the Eighth-fastest this season. Only 5 passers this season have accomplished extra passes in underneath 2.5 seconds than Bowman. Bowman has thrown eight of his 9 touchdowns in underneath 2.5 seconds, tied for probably the most within the FBS.

Utah counters with three gifted cornerbacks in Zemaiah Vaughn, Elijah Davis and Smith Snowden. Since the beginning of final season, Utah owns the Twelfth-best EPA per move allowed within the Power Five on throws launched underneath 2.5 seconds. The Utes’ capacity to succeed utilizing a excessive charge of single-high protection permits them to defend quick passes in addition to cease the run.

If Utah does win the battle in protection, then Oklahoma State might want to depend on Ollie Gordon II, who’s struggling to this point this yr. He presently is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and his longest run of the yr went for 12 yards. The Cowboys may battle to win this recreation if their offense continues to be one-dimensional.

Matchup to observe when Utah has the ball (Max): Is Cameron Rising wholesome sufficient to reap the benefits of a susceptible Oklahoma State protection?

Utah quarterback Cameron Rising missed this previous week’s recreation in opposition to Utah State because of an damage to his ring finger on his throwing hand. Wide receiver Dorian Singer mentioned that Rising will return in opposition to Oklahoma State, although it’s unknown how a lot this damage will have an effect on him. 

If Rising is at or close to one hundred pc, Utah may reap the benefits of what’s been a subpar pass-defense for the Cowboys. They’re presently the sixth-worst Power Four workforce in protection grade (60.6) whereas permitting 7.6 yards per move (Tenth worst).

Predictions

Max: Utah 28, Oklahoma State 27

This recreation comes all the way down to the well being of Rising’s proper ring finger. If his damage is considerably affecting his passing capacity, I like Oklahoma State’s possibilities. If not, the Utes pull out the victory.

Dalton: Utah 30, Oklahoma State 26

Ollie Gordon II is struggling. Collin Oliver is out. The Cowboys dwelling discipline benefit received’t be sufficient to carry off a extra well-rounded Utah workforce, assuming Rising is wholesome.

No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (7:30 PM EST on ABC)

Storyline to know: Can Oklahoma present some indicators of life offensively in opposition to a red-hot Tennessee workforce?

Oklahoma hasn’t had the very best begin to its season regardless of its 3-0 document, particularly on offense. The Sooners presently have the second-lowest offensive grade within the Power Four (61.8), forward of solely UCLA. They’re the Power Four’s worst workforce in receiving grade and run-blocking grade whereas being under common in passing grade (forty eighth), dashing grade (fifty fifth) and pass-blocking grade (forty third). 

Tennessee, in the meantime, has outscored its opponents by 63.7 factors per recreation, together with a 41-point victory over then-No. 24 NC State. The Volunteers have solely given up 13 factors all season and have one of many 10 highest-graded defenses within the nation to this point. Oklahoma’s first convention recreation as a member of the SEC will present simply how a lot concern there needs to be for its offense.

Matchup to observe when Oklahoma has the ball (Dalton): Oklahoma’s offensive line vs. Tennessee’s all of a sudden deep line of defense

Oklahoma’s offensive line was anticipated to be a piece in progress this season contemplating it was changing all the 2023 unit. Injuries and ineffectiveness have created actual concern for the Sooners up entrance.

Oklahoma’s offensive line is presently the lowest-graded unit within the Power Five. It has been a bit under common in move safety however owns the third-lowest run-blocking grade within the Power Four. Facing Tulane final week, Oklahoma had simply considered one of their 5 projected starters enjoying the place they have been anticipated to play.

Conversely, Tennessee’s line of defense has thrived to this point this season regardless of James Pearce Jr. getting off to a pedestrian begin. As a unit, it has posted the eighth-best general grade within the nation. It all of a sudden has a deep rotation of gamers with totally different ability units. Omari Thomas and Dominic Bailey have carried out a pleasant job dashing the passer. Tyre West and Joshua Josephs have excelled within the run recreation.

Tennessee has discovered depth on its line of defense. If Pearce will get going as effectively, the Vols change into much more harmful. Even if he doesn’t, Oklahoma can have its fingers full blocking a deep rotation of productive gamers.

Matchup to observe when Tennessee has the ball (Max): Can Oklahoma restrict the large performs from Nico Iamaleava?

Running again Dylan Sampson has been the star of Tennessee’s offense to this point this season. The junior’s 7.9 yards per carry are fifth amongst all tailbacks within the nation. However, he’ll have a troublesome check on Saturday evening since Oklahoma’s protection is excellent at defending the run. The Sooners are presently second amongst FBS groups in run-defense grade (92.5) and permit simply three yards per try. 

In all probability, the Volunteers will want quarterback Nico Iamaleava to hold the offense to be able to pull off the highway win. The redshirt freshman has been capable of relaxation on his laurels after an elite efficiency in Week 1, posting only a 56.0 passing grade up to now two weeks with two big-time throws and the primary three turnover-worthy performs of his profession. He’ll have to be sharper in opposition to an Oklahoma protection that’s surrendered only a 58.4 grade from opposing quarterbacks this season. Those signal-callers have only one big-time throw and 5 turnover-worthy performs in opposition to the Sooners to this point.

Predictions

Max: Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 20

Oklahoma’s offense struggles to search out its footing as soon as once more whereas Nico Iamaleava makes sufficient performs for Tennessee to tug off one other ranked win.

Dalton: Tennessee 45, Oklahoma 23

Oklahoma is coping with a ton of accidents and hasn’t regarded notably spectacular. There are too many matchups on this recreation that favor the Volunteers. Tennessee rolls.

No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats at BYU Cougars (10:30 PM EST on ESPN)

Storyline to know: Is BYU a Big 12 contender?

The Cougars have been one of many larger surprises in faculty soccer to this point. BYU entered the season with a win whole set at simply 4.5 and is already 3-0 to start out the season with wins over Southern Illinois, SMU and Wyoming. 

BYU now has an opportunity to show its legitimacy in opposition to a Kansas State workforce that simply dominated No. 20 Arizona this previous weekend. If the Cougars pull off the upset, they’ll absolutely enter the top-25 and enter themselves right into a wide-open Big 12 race.

Matchup to observe when BYU has the ball (Dalton): Will Kansas State convey stress in opposition to Jake Retzlaff?

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has actually improved this season after seeing restricted motion in 2023. He has an fascinating matchup this week in opposition to the Wildcats, who hardly ever put further stress on opposing passers. If that development holds, it ought to work to Retzlaff’s benefit.

Jake Retzlaff vs. non-blitzes, 2024

When he’s given time to function within the pocket, Retzlaff is prepared and capable of take vertical pictures downfield. His greatest attribute is his capacity to assault down the center when he’s clear.

The fascinating a part of this matchup is that Kansas State shouldn’t be a workforce that historically blitzes very a lot. The Wildcats carried the ninth-lowest blitz charge within the Power Four on move performs final season and the fourth-lowest this season.

If the Wildcats determine to interrupt that tendency and ship extra stress, will probably be incumbent upon Retzlaff to make fewer errors. So far in his BYU profession, Retzlaff has earned only a 36.0 passing grade, making one big-time throw and committing 9 turnover-worthy performs within the course of. There’s a extreme drop-off in his accuracy and decision-making when he feels further stress coming his method.

Retzlaff can also be the Cougars’ main rusher, so nearly everything of their offense is on his shoulders. If he stays poised underneath stress, the Cougars can have an opportunity to tug off a giant upset.

Matchup to observe when Kansas State has the ball (Max): Can BYU get Kansas State into apparent passing conditions?

Kansas State’s offense relies on its three-headed monster in its run recreation. Kansas State is presently tied for fifth within the nation with 7.3 yards per try whereas it’s second within the nation with 28% of its runs going for at the very least 10 yards. Avery Johnson is fourth amongst Power Four quarterbacks with 200 dashing yards on the season whereas DJ Giddens is Tenth amongst working backs with 324 yards. Defenses additionally should account for the electrical Dylan Edwards, who has 9 compelled missed tackles on simply 15 carries to this point. 

BYU presently has a top-25 run-defense grade within the nation, permitting 4.2 yards per try. However, the Cougars have allowed 213 dashing yards from quarterbacks by three video games this season, which might be a big problem in opposition to Avery Johnson. 

Predictions

Max: Kansas State 31, BYU 17

Avery Johnson’s legs as soon as once more lead the Wildcats to victory whereas BYU comes crashing all the way down to earth with its first lack of the season. 

Dalton: Kansas State 35, BYU 20

The Wildcats’ working recreation is a major problem for opposing defenses. Retzlaff must play an ideal recreation to tug off an upset. Kansas State wins its first official Big 12 recreation of the season.