2024 College Football Early Bowl Games: Second betting market replace

Welcome to PFF’s betting market replace for Week 2 of the bowl season.

This article will clarify the elements that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.

If you aren’t acquainted, click on right here for a deeper rationalization of what we goal to attain every week with our NFL model of this text. For the Round 1 CFP model, click on right here.

Market dynamics are vastly totally different in bowl video games and largely pushed by switch portal entries, participant opt-outs, and training modifications. It’s frequent to see excessive swings in spreads and totals main as much as and even on gameday as shock opt-outs are introduced. One option to achieve an edge in bowl season is handicapping groups’ motivation, which is extra of an artwork than a science. 

An fascinating wrinkle to remember is that gamers who’ve entered the portal can nonetheless play in bowl video games. This pattern might develop into extra frequent with latest developments of NIL and revenue-sharing. 

COASTAL CAROLINA VS UTSA

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Spread: With each QBs for coastal opting out, this line shortly moved out to UTSA -9.5 earlier than a choose launch pushed it previous 10 and to as excessive as 12 earlier than we noticed some resistance. Coastal will begin a freshman at QB Tad Hudson, who will see his first recreation motion. There are nonetheless some 10.5s accessible, however the market consensus at 10. 

Total: The first transfer on the overall was a transfer as much as 58.5 earlier than a constant slide all the way down to 55.5. We have seen a number of books return to 56. I don’t foresee this complete dropping a lot additional. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

NORTHERN ILLINOIS VS. FRESNO STATE

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Spread: There are lots of significant gamers lacking on each side of the ball, together with the beginning QBs for every workforce. That has just about canceled one another out out there, as the one transfer we’ve seen is to the important thing variety of 3. You can nonetheless discover 2.5s out there. 

Total: The complete has reacted to the standard of gamers lacking on this matchup, driving the overall down from 42 to 39.5. We’ve but to see it go any decrease than that, however there are nonetheless loads of books with 40 and even some with 40.5.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

SOUTH FLORIDA VS. SAN JOSE STATE

Hawai’i Bowl

Spread: There is sort of a little bit of motion on the unfold right here. San Jose State shortly reached -3.5 earlier than a choose launch helped take that to as excessive as 6. Since then, it’s been a gradual drop again down to three.5s throughout the board with information that star WR Nick Nash will probably be opting out to organize for the NFL Draft. 

Total: Total has stayed comparatively flat, bouncing between 60 and 61.5.

Buy/Sell: I’ll fade the transfer on San Jose State and lock in USF +3.5. This is an excessive amount of motion with the Bulls not having key ability gamers choose out. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

PITTSBURGH VS. TOLEDO

GameAbove Sports Bowl

Spread: Uncertainty across the QB place for the Panthers has helped take this line all the way down to solely a landing. There are a few books which have dipped under that quantity to six.5.

Total: Total hasn’t budged a lot in any respect off of 51. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

RUTGERS VS. KANSAS STATE

Rate Bowl

Spread: While most books are nonetheless on the opening variety of 7, we’ve seen some market-leading books transfer to six.5. The board is at the moment break up between these two numbers. 

Total: Nothing on the overall. As you possibly can see under, there wasn’t a ton of motion for these groups within the portal both. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

ARKANSAS STATE VS. BOWLING GREEN

68 Ventures Bowl

Spread: Fueled by stories that Bowling Green will see most of their starters play, this line crossed to the opposite facet of seven to 7.5. There are nonetheless lots of books at 7 and even one at a fairly priced -6.5 -120.

Total: The complete stays on the opening variety of 51. If something, some momentum is pushing this complete down as a few books have moved to 50.5. 

Buy/Sell: I’ll cherry-pick the final remaining 6.5 -120 at FanDuel, though factoring in line worth, it’s basically the identical as taking a -7 at a decreased juice of -105. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

OKLAHOMA VS. NAVY

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Spread: As you possibly can see under, Oklahoma receives the switch portal affect for this bowl recreation. That affect initially moved this quantity all the way down to 7 earlier than a choose launch pushed this down even additional to the place it now sits at -4.5. Motivation additionally comes into play right here, particularly towards a service academy offense. 

Total: A sluggish however regular lower, the overall now sits at 43.5 throughout the board. We’ve but to see it dip a lot additional than that and have seen some buyback on the over at 43.5.

Buy/Sell: I’ll fade this massive line transfer and lock in Oklahoma -4.5. The protection has been their bread and butter this yr, and whereas it’s a novel offense they’ll want to organize for, they’ll be up for it. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

GEORGIA TECH VS. VANDERBILT

Birmingham Bowl

Spread: Georgia Tech acquired a bump out there to -3 on the information that beginning QB Haynes King will play. There are loads of -2.5s nonetheless on the market. Diego Pavia additionally seems to be poised to play for Vandy, and he is off the heels of his courtroom win that at the moment grants him an additional yr of eligibility. 

Total: This has bounced forwards and backwards between 50 and 51, however hasn’t eclipsed both of these numbers. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

TEXAS TECH VS. ARKANSAS

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Spread: This unfold has been like a pendulum swing, with Arkansas opening as a small favourite, to Texas Tech being favored by as a lot as a subject aim. That has since swung totally again within the different path, with Arkansas being a good larger favourite than we noticed within the opener. The preliminary transfer was tied to participant motion, however coach motion, notably each Texas Tech coordinators, has performed a job as of late. I doubt we see this attain Arkansas -3. 

Total: The first transfer right here was a soar on the overall to 62, however since then, it’s been one-way motion, shifting this complete down by a considerable margin. We noticed it get as little as 53 earlier than a transfer again to 55—nonetheless some 54.5s on the board. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

SYRACUSE VS. WASHINGTON STATE

DirecTV Holiday Bowl

Spread: Syracuse HC Fran Brown made his emotions identified on how he views bowl video games. As evidenced by the 7.5-point transfer making Syracuse a two-touchdown favourite, his program will take them critically. This is coupled with Washington State shedding key gamers, together with QB John Mateer, and almost all the teaching employees after HC Jake Dikert took the Wake Forest job. Some books have taken this to 14.5. 

Total: The response to the overall hasn’t been as stark, as we’ve solely seen a web 1 level transfer all the way down to 59. However, this complete reached 62 earlier than a few of the most up-to-date participant and coach information got here to gentle.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

TEXAS A&M VS. USC

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Spread: With Texas A&M seeing much less of an affect by portal entries and opt-outs, it is smart to see this line transfer to three. That line has continued to three.5 in some spots, however with these strikes, we noticed some assist for USC. 

Total: Not a lot motion right here. Opened at 52, and that’s the place the market consensus stays. However, some books have taken this to 51.5. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):