Welcome to the newest installment of “Coach, I Was Open,” my ongoing statistics sequence, the place I construct and refine a mannequin to foretell targets for each route in each NFL recreation.
I created this mannequin utilizing route-level PFF knowledge to foretell the chance of every route being focused on each play within the NFL. This mannequin generates fascinating metrics resembling “share of predicted targets” and “share of predicted air yards.” These metrics are extra steady and predictive than their precise counterparts.
The core thought behind creating this mannequin is {that a} participant could be “incomes targets” by constantly getting open and operating precious routes however not receiving targets for varied causes — resembling quarterback strain, a misinterpret or the quarterback forcing the ball elsewhere. After reviewing the movie, groups could acknowledge that sure gamers have been open and modify their recreation plan to contain them extra in subsequent weeks.
Later, we focus on Kirk Cousins and the way he held again the Falcons‘ offensive weapons earlier than being benched this week.
Week 15 Recap
The mannequin recognized three gamers who ended up recording season highs in targets: A.J. Brown, Xavier Worthy and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Tight finish Jonnu Smith‘s 11 targets tied his season excessive, Tee Higgins had a strong eight targets and Deebo Samuel recorded seven targets.
Drake London completed final week with a strong 17.6% goal share, however that amounted to solely three targets attributable to Kirk Cousins making an attempt simply 17 passes.
IDENTIFYING BREAKOUT CANDIDATES FOR WEEK 16
Three Falcons gamers present up on the record this week with Michael Penix Jr. set to make his first NFL begin at quarterback. Darnell Mooney had a fully large distinction in his Week 15 goal share and share of predicted targets (.18). But with the change at quarterback, I might be weary of the mannequin for the reason that offense may bear an enormous change.
As mentioned in our “Route-Based Heroes” article, DK Metcalf has an OK matchup however typically doesn’t excel versus middle-of-field-open coverages, which the Vikings run lots.
Tank Dell is an fascinating title on this week’s record since he’s additionally a route-based hero and has an important single-coverage matchup. I might not be shocked to see Dell earn a season excessive in targets this week.
Season Leaders in Share of Predicted Targets
Not an excessive amount of has modified week over week. The greatest shock is that Cooper Kupp continues to be forward of Puka Nacua with out producing in addition to Nacua.
Quarterback Decision Making — Week 15
The Predicted Targets Model permits us to guage a quarterback’s efficiency over a single recreation, a sequence of video games and even a whole season. This mannequin analyzes each route on each play, calculating the chance {that a} given participant will probably be focused primarily based on components resembling openness, PFF grade, degree of separation and extra. By leveraging this route-level knowledge, we will decide whether or not the quarterback made an optimum determination. I filtered the information solely to performs the place there have been at the least two routes, that means the quarterback needed to decide.
To simplify the evaluation, I categorized each determination into three distinct classes:
- Optimal Decision: The quarterback threw to the participant with the best goal chance.
- Suboptimal Decision: The quarterback threw to a participant who didn’t have the best goal chance.
- Bad Decision: The quarterback threw to the participant with the bottom goal chance.
Kirk Cousins is the discuss of the week after being benched. My mannequin reveals that Cousins made the optimum determination solely 53.8% of the time and made an outright unhealthy determination 23.1% of the time — which led the NFL in Week 15. The Falcons have fast playoff hopes and can’t afford to depend on this degree of decision-making or offensive execution at this level within the season.
On this play, Bijan Robinson and Ross Dwelley each ran fast smoke display screen routes and have been large open. Darnell Mooney finally ends up being large open on a hitch, too. Drake London is barely extra lined however nonetheless open within the NFL. Cousins as an alternative throws it to Charlie Woerner, who has the least quantity of separation on the play and was the one participant labeled as “not open.” The play resulted in an interception. There actually is not any means round this being an terrible determination.
This subsequent play isn’t particularly about Cousins’ decision-making. On second-and-6, the Raiders find yourself sending all-out strain. The Falcons have many wide-open receivers, however Cousins merely can’t keep away from the push and throws a lame-duck incompletion.
With Cousins’ age, the present state of his arm and his mobility, he has to make up for his bodily deficiencies with psychological aptitude. But performs like this present that that’s simpler mentioned than carried out.
This play bothered me, because the announcers praised Cousins for making a superb determination to throw to London on a 5-yard out path to get the primary down. However, they didn’t acknowledge Ray Ray McCloud operating large open in the midst of the sphere for what may have been a 20-plus-yard achieve — at a minimal. It would have additionally been considerably simpler on the Falcons as an alternative of needing to depend on Drake London to make an important play on the sideline.
Sorry if I appear harsh on Cousins this week, however there’s a clear cause he was benched. It was merely time. On the season, Cousins has the 18th-ranked PFF passing grade amongst quarterbacks with at the least 250 dropbacks. Since Week 10, he ranks third worst.
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