I’ve been placing collectively notes for each sport that Judah Fortgang and I contact on through the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show every week, and I’ve since prolonged that to game-by-game betting notes for the total slate of Sunday video games.
The concept is to place my analysis and ideas onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to assist myself work by way of what bets I wish to place every week. Hopefully, you’re capable of get comparable worth from this text as you’re employed by way of your decision-making course of.
Each sport will embody data-driven and contextual notes for either side of the ball with an “Angles I Like” abstract on the finish, which rapidly summarizes how I’m almost definitely to guess the sport from a spreads, totals and participant props perspective.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (CHARGERS -4.5, 43.5 TOTAL)
- The Patriots have blitzed on 37% of their pass-defense snaps this season (sixth-highest price in NFL), however they’re nonetheless a bottom-five protection in strain price.
- A workforce that blitzes usually with out producing strain tends to be matchup for many quarterbacks, however that’s significantly true for Justin Herbert, who has excelled each towards the blitz and from a clear pocket.
- Justin Herbert PFF passing grades | 2024 season
- Vs. Blitz: 83.1 (2nd)
- From Clean Pocket: 92.0 (third)
- Justin Herbert PFF passing grades | 2024 season
- The Chargers have continued to be a pass-heavy workforce since their early-season bye. Assuming the sport stays aggressive, it is a great place to assault Herbert’s passing overs/alts.
- A workforce that blitzes usually with out producing strain tends to be matchup for many quarterbacks, however that’s significantly true for Justin Herbert, who has excelled each towards the blitz and from a clear pocket.
- As I’ve mentioned a number of occasions in these notebooks, Ladd McConkey is by far the Chargers’ most efficient receiver towards man protection. And New England performs Cover 1 at a top-five price.
- Receiving yards per route run versus man protection amongst Chargers’ high WRs
- McConkey runs greater than 70% of his routes from the slot.
- The Patriots’ high cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, has lined up within the slot on solely 19% of his protection snaps this season. He may kick in to face McConkey on key downs however is unlikely to be a mainstay there.
- The Patriots’ beginning slot cornerback, Marcus Jones, missed final week’s sport and hasn’t practiced by way of Wednesday. New England moved Jonathan Jones to the slot, which weakened the opposite outdoors spot reverse Gonzalez.
- Any Herbert alts I guess will doubtless be tied to McConkey receiving overs/alts (line set at 70.5).
- There’s an opportunity that the Chargers get operating again J.Ok. Dobbins again for the primary time since Week 12 (restricted practices on Tuesday and Wednesday).
- The Patriots have been extra weak to the run sport than is typical from a New England protection (twenty fourth in EPA allowed per run play), and we’ve seen operating backs like James Cook, Joe Mixon, James Conner and Kyren Williams all have environment friendly days (greater than 5.5 yards per carry) on low quantity.
- It’s price ready to see what the speeding strains are for Dobbins, however I’ll doubtless keep away from overs, on condition that Los Angeles may ease him again in after his break day resulting from harm.
- The Chargers’ run protection has regarded weak in current weeks, together with towards groups that haven’t had a lot success operating the ball.
- The Chargers rank twenty sixth in EPA allowed per run play over their previous 5 video games.
- The Patriots are an enormous gap-scheme speeding offense, and Los Angeles has allowed 4.6 yards per stick with it gap-scheme runs this yr (twenty first in NFL).
- The Patriots wish to shield Drake Maye behind a foul offensive line and run the ball once they’re capable of. This is a spot the place I’ve some curiosity in Rhamondre Stevenson operating into mild packing containers, along with his line set at solely 42.5 yards. He is averaging 5.2 yards per carry over his previous three video games.
- The Patriots’ passing offense has additionally been rather more environment friendly towards two-high protection shells than single-high protection shells since Maye took over in Week 6.
- Patriots’ EPA per go play rank by protection shell
- Single-high: twenty sixth
- Two-high: seventh
- The Chargers play two-high on the third-highest price within the NFL (54%).
- Patriots’ EPA per go play rank by protection shell
- Since Maye took over at quarterback in Week 6, the Patriots are a top-10 workforce in red-zone go price. If we’re bought on New England having the ability to transfer the ball and get into the crimson zone, Maye going over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+188) turns into fascinating.
- I feel this sport has sneaky back-and-forth potential, contemplating the current type of the Chargers’ protection. That provides me extra conviction in my favourite angle within the sport (Herbert/McConkey overs).
Angles I like: Over 43.5, Justin Herbert-to-Ladd McConkey SGPs, Rhamondre Stevenson speeding yards overs, Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns
DENVER BRONCOS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (BENGALS -3, 49.5 TOTAL)
- This is among the video games of the week when it comes to playoff implications. Cincinnati must win out (with assist) to have an opportunity at clinching the No. 7 seed, and Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a victory on Saturday.
- The cause {that a} workforce just like the Bills, who look prone to get the No. 2 seed, shall be rooting for a Bengals loss, is that Cincinnati can sustain with any opponent with the best way their offense is transferring the ball.
- Most common yards per play | 2024 season
- Bengals with Tee Higgins on the sector: 6.5
- Ravens: 6.4
- Lions: 6.0
- Packers: 6.0
- Most common yards per play | 2024 season
- It appears to be like just like the Broncos ought to get Riley Moss again at cornerback for this sport, which is noteworthy as a result of they’ve shifted stylistically with him out of the lineup.
- Broncos’ man protection price
- Weeks 1-11: 36% (fifth highest)
- Weeks 12-16: 24% (twenty first)
- Denver has turned to extra two-high over this stretch (twenty seventh in two-high price in Weeks 1-11, ninth since Week 12)
- It’s not essentially proper to imagine that the Broncos will return to their base man protection and single-high charges with Moss returning.
- The Bengals have seen two-high on 53% of their offensive snaps (second highest). Denver may keep it up on this matchup towards Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
- Broncos’ man protection price
- The type of protection doesn’t do a lot to alter my curiosity in Burrow. The Bengals have handed the ball on the highest price within the NFL in impartial conditions, and Burrow has the second-highest PFF passing grade within the NFL towards two-high shells.
- Chase and Higgins would get extra vertical one-on-one pictures outdoors towards single-high, however they will produce in any matchup.
- The key matchup shall be Ja’Marr Chase versus Patrick Surtain.
- Chase is able to beating any matchup, however I’ll keep away from his duel towards Surtain, who hasn’t given up greater than 39 receiving yards in a sport this season and enters this week at No. 1 in PFF’s superior protection grading amongst cornerbacks.
- Chase has 285 snaps within the slot this season, and I think about Cincinnati will transfer him there to get him away from Surtain. But it’s a foul sufficient matchup that I’ll look elsewhere, on condition that Burrow is comfy spreading the wealth.
- Higgins has a barely greater goal price than Chase when on the sector.
- Chase has 285 snaps within the slot this season, and I think about Cincinnati will transfer him there to get him away from Surtain. But it’s a foul sufficient matchup that I’ll look elsewhere, on condition that Burrow is comfy spreading the wealth.
- Chase is able to beating any matchup, however I’ll keep away from his duel towards Surtain, who hasn’t given up greater than 39 receiving yards in a sport this season and enters this week at No. 1 in PFF’s superior protection grading amongst cornerbacks.
- If the Broncos do strive to remove Chase with Surtain, I’ve an curiosity in receiving overs for the opposite core items of the Bengals’ passing offense (Higgins and Gesicki).
- The Broncos have allowed 595 receiving yards to operating backs this yr (sixth most in NFL).
- There’s probability the Bengals will get Orlando Brown Jr. (out since Week 14) and Amarius Mims (left Week 16 sport) again from harm this week, which is essential towards a Broncos protection ranked second in quick-pressure price in 2024.
- On the opposite facet of the ball, the Bengals’ protection has been the explanation they’re beneath .500 on the season. The unit has been barely higher for the reason that bye week, however that has been towards an underwhelming slate of opposing offenses (Steelers, Cowboys, Titans and Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Browns).
- Despite that enchancment in current weeks, the Bengals have nonetheless allowed essentially the most yards after the catch per reception of any protection within the NFL since their Week 12 bye.
- Most YAC/REC allowed since Week 13
- Bengals: 6.9
- Bears: 6.8
- Jaguars: 6.7
- The Broncos are one of many largest display groups within the NFL (high 5 in display price) and rank third in yards after the catch per reception (6.7) over the previous 5 weeks.
- Denver has made a concerted effort to get the ball in Marvin Mims’ arms on offense, sending him 18 targets over the previous 5 video games. He is averaging 19.3 yards after the catch per reception on these targets because of a number of lengthy catches on swing passes out of the backfield and his 90-plus-yard landing on a seam towards Cleveland in Week 13.
- With Mims’ receiving yardage line set at 24.5, I’ll be taking an opportunity on one other lengthy run-after-the-catch play after he performed a season-high 30 snaps final week.
- Denver has made a concerted effort to get the ball in Marvin Mims’ arms on offense, sending him 18 targets over the previous 5 video games. He is averaging 19.3 yards after the catch per reception on these targets because of a number of lengthy catches on swing passes out of the backfield and his 90-plus-yard landing on a seam towards Cleveland in Week 13.
- Most YAC/REC allowed since Week 13
- Denver’s backfield will get murkier with Jaleel McLaughlin doubtless getting back from harm and it turning into a three-headed unit once more (Javonte Williams and Audric Estime).
- The strains will doubtless be low sufficient in a gentle speeding matchup towards Cincinnati that in the event you can guess who will get the new hand, there shall be worth on the over. But I’ll almost definitely be staying away as a result of I don’t have an amazing learn on the scenario.
Angles I like: Bengals -3, Chase Brown receiving overs, Ja’Marr Chase receiving unders, Joe Burrow-to-non-Chase SGPs (Higgins, Gesicki, Brown), Marvin Mims receiving overs
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (RAMS -6.5, 47.5 TOTAL)
- The first assembly between these two groups was in Week 2 — a sport the Cardinals dominated, 41-10, however it was towards a depleted Rams offense.
- If the Rams can have success on the bottom, they’re going to run the ball usually as one of many high groups in run price over anticipated prior to now 5 weeks.
- We noticed this final week towards the Jets, as Kyren Williams ran for 122 yards on 23 carries. Williams has 112 carries over the previous 5 weeks, rating behind solely Saquon Barkley.
- He has one of many safer speeding quantity roles within the NFL, and the Cardinals have allowed 4.5 yards per stick with it designed runs this season (sixth highest in NFL).
- There’s not a lot worth on alts, with Williams’ speeding yardage line set at 92.5, however it is a spot the place I lean towards his over. The Rams are available in as 6.5-point favorites in a gentle speeding matchup.
- We noticed this final week towards the Jets, as Kyren Williams ran for 122 yards on 23 carries. Williams has 112 carries over the previous 5 weeks, rating behind solely Saquon Barkley.
- Stafford has among the greater clean-versus-pressured splits within the NFL, and the Cardinals have struggled to generate constant strain all season.
- Stafford PFF passing grade ranks | 2024 season
- Clean pocket: fifth
- Pressured: thirty second
- The Cardinals rank simply twenty fifth in strain price on the season — although they place fifteenth over the previous 5 weeks at fifteenth, however that’s largely due to how usually they’re blitzing (46% blitz price since Week 12 is third highest in NFL).
- Stafford has been one of many higher quarterbacks within the NFL at beating the blitz this yr. The Rams rank sixth in EPA per go play versus the blitz.
- This matchup units up properly for Stafford on paper, however I’m anxious sufficient in regards to the quantity that I lean towards the underneath on his passing yardage line within the mid-to-high 230s.
- Stafford has averaged simply 25 makes an attempt per sport throughout the previous 4 weeks, which suggests he would wish to common greater than 9 yards per try to clear his yardage complete if he’s sitting round 25 makes an attempt once more.
- I’ll have some curiosity in underneath 30.5 makes an attempt at +100 on DraftKings.
- Stafford PFF passing grade ranks | 2024 season
- Another part to the Stafford quantity dialog is that the Rams’ protection has been permitting lengthy, sustained drives all season, and that’s been much more true the previous 5 weeks.
- Most performs allowed per drive since Week 12
- Jets: 7.3
- Rams: 7.2
- Saints: 7.2
- Chargers: 7.2
- Most performs allowed per drive since Week 12
- The Rams have allowed 4.6 yards per run play over the previous 5 weeks (third most), and the Cardinals have been one of many league’s extra environment friendly speeding offenses (sixth in EPA per run play).
- James Conner damage his knee in Week 16 however has been capable of get in restricted practices this week and could possibly be good to go for Saturday. Even with that knee harm, Conner has rushed 15-plus occasions for no less than 5.0 yards per carry in every of the previous three weeks.
- My preliminary really feel for this sport is that each groups will lean on the run sport and string collectively some longer drives that chew clock, which ought to play to underneath 47.5.
- Murray had his finest video games of the season towards this Rams protection in Week 2 (17-of-21 passing, 266 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, 5 carries for 59 yards), and I do have extra curiosity in him at his strains than Stafford.
- The Cardinals are the NFL’s finest workforce with a sizeable lead, rating first in EPA per play when main by seven-plus factors, so I like pairing participant prop overs for the Cardinals with their moneyline or alt spreads as favorites.
- It’s been a disappointing rookie season for Marvin Harrison Jr., however opposing offenses have had success all season concentrating on outdoors receivers towards the Rams.
- Highest passer score allowed on outdoors WR targets
- Falcons: 115.8
- Rams: 113.6
- Giants: 109.1
- Harrison caught 4 passes within the first assembly for 130 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been inherently excessive variance along with his function on this offense (with extra lows than highs), however this seems like week to take a shot on him connecting on one or two of his downfield targets with a receiving line set proper round 50 yards.
- Highest passer score allowed on outdoors WR targets
Angles I like: Under 47.5, Matthew Stafford passing unders, Kyren Williams speeding overs, SGPs across the Cardinals successful (Kyler Murray, James Conner and Marvin Harrison Jr. overs)