College Football Bowl Games: Betting market replace

Welcome to PFF’s betting market replace for Week 2 of bowl season.

In this text, we’ll break down the important thing elements influencing line actions in betting markets, serving to you establish whether or not adjustments are an overreaction or an underreaction to those developments. If you’re unfamiliar with our strategy, click on right here for a deeper clarification. You can take a look at our evaluation for Round 1 of the CFP by clicking right here.

Bowl recreation markets are distinctive, primarily formed by switch portal entries, participant opt-outs, and training adjustments. These elements usually result in dramatic swings in spreads and totals, typically even on recreation day, as surprising opt-outs emerge. One essential edge throughout bowl season lies in assessing group motivation—a ability that blends instinct and evaluation.

An evolving pattern to watch is the participation of gamers who’ve entered the switch portal however select to play in bowl video games. This observe, fueled by NIL alternatives and revenue-sharing developments, may change into extra prevalent within the years forward.

RELIAQUEST BOWL: ALABAMA vs MICHIGAN

Spread: The preliminary transfer dropped the unfold to 10 shortly after opening, nevertheless it has since climbed to 13.5 with information that almost all of Alabama’s potential opt-outs, together with QB Jalen Milroe, are anticipated to play. The line has but to achieve 14, and it’s unlikely we’ll see that quantity seem.

Total: The complete oscillated between 43 and 44 for weeks earlier than Circa dropped it to 42.5 over the weekend. Most books are nonetheless holding at 43.5, although others could comply with swimsuit quickly.

Buy/Sell: Even after important motion, I’m comfy backing Alabama at -13.5.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

TONY THE TIGER SUN BOWL: LOUISVILLE vs WASHINGTON

Spread: Significant motion towards Washington has shifted this line under a subject purpose, primarily because of stories that Louisville QB Tyler Shough will sit out alongside a number of different key contributors. Washington seems to be nearing full participation. The line sits at a consensus of two, although some books nonetheless present 2.5.

Total: The complete has steadily dropped by 4 factors since opening, with 49.5 remaining extensively obtainable.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

CHEEZ-IT CITRUS BOWL: SOUTH CAROLINA vs ILLINOIS

Spread: The line has fluctuated barely, dipping under 10 at occasions earlier than climbing to 11 this previous weekend. It has since settled again at 10, although 10.5s are nonetheless obtainable. Both groups are anticipated to be close to full power for this Citrus Bowl matchup.

Total: After remaining regular at 48 for 2 weeks, the full has seen current motion, bouncing between 49 and 50 over the previous week.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

KINDER’S TEXAS BOWL: BAYLOR vs LSU

Spread: LSU’s offensive line exodus has shifted Baylor to the favourite, pushing the road previous a subject purpose to three.5. However, some books nonetheless supply 3s. Additionally, LSU has seen a handful of defensive starters decide to different colleges by means of the portal.

Total: After an early 2-point drop, the full has stabilized, with 59.5s persistently obtainable throughout the board in current weeks.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

TAXSLAYER GATOR BOWL: DUKE vs OLE MISS

Spread: The line motion stems primarily from Duke QB Maalik Murphy’s switch. Both groups are in any other case anticipated to be close to full power. The unfold has settled at 17.5 throughout the board, with no motion past that at any e book.

Total: The complete has seen a two-point drop, now sitting at 51. Most books supply 51.5, with a couple of itemizing 50.5.

Buy/Sell: I’m shopping for the over at 51. Despite Duke’s QB change, Lane Kiffin’s vocal frustration about his group lacking the playoff suggests he’ll be desperate to make a press release by lighting up the scoreboard.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

SERVPRO FIRST RESPONDER BOWL: NORTH TEXAS vs TEXAS STATE

Spread: The portal has hit North Texas exhausting, pushing the road near 14 in favor of Texas State. While a couple of market leaders have moved to 14, most books stay at 13.5, simply shy of the important thing quantity.

Total: With a depleted roster and a real freshman quarterback main North Texas, the full has dropped over 8 factors. These drastic actions spotlight the volatility of bowl season. Some books nonetheless have this listed at 61 or 61.5.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

DUKE‘S MAYO BOWL: MINNESOTA vs VIRGINIA TECH

Spread: Heavy motion on Minnesota has pushed the road previous a landing to 7.5. While there was some buyback on Virginia Tech at 7.5 late final week, the road is now creeping as much as 8 at some books. Uncertainty across the Hokies’ beginning quarterback has added to the motion.

Total: Minimal adjustments right here, with a web half-point drop to 42.5. The complete briefly dipped to 41.5 however shortly rebounded.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

BAHAMAS BOWL: BUFFALO vs. LIBERTY

Spread: The switch of QB Kaidon Salter to Colorado has shifted the road in Buffalo’s favor, making them near a field-goal favourite after opening as a slight underdog. The market is cut up between -2 and -2.5.

Total: After opening at 52, the full has dipped barely and now sits between 50.5 and 51. Further downward motion is feasible as kickoff approaches.

Buy/Sell: I’m shopping for Buffalo at -2.5, as the road appears prone to shut at 3 or greater.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)