• Drafting quarterbacks early was a successful technique: Those who drafted Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson had a very good likelihood of creating the fantasy playoffs.
• Young tight ends have been a nightmare: Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson noticed their fantasy manufacturing decline as an alternative of enhance this season.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all of our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, the Start-Sit Optimizer and extra. Sign up now!
Estimated studying time: 8 minutes
With the fantasy soccer season over, it’s time to evaluation the fantasy draft season and determine what went nicely, what went flawed, and what was a gray space. This is to be clear, notably concerning my preseason recap articles to see the place I can enhance for the 2025 season.
This article compares my draft rankings and articles to FantasyProfessionals’ consensus 2024 ADP. Fantasy factors per recreation have been usually the benchmark for the way nicely gamers did somewhat than complete fantasy factors. I had Christian McCaffrey as the highest general choose, however so did ADP, so these hits and misses are ignored. All recommendation referenced on this article was for single-quarterback redraft leagues solely, utilizing PPR scoring, and doesn’t essentially apply to greatest ball or dynasty.
What I Got Right
Not drafting Travis Etienne within the second spherical
Etienne was the consensus RB8, placing him as a mid-second-round choose, whereas I had him at RB14, which was nonetheless too excessive. In his participant profile, I famous Etienne’s drop in enjoying time and fantasy manufacturing in 2023 and that “his upside solely exists if the offensive line improves dramatically or if Tank Bigsby retains turning the ball over, forcing Etienne to play over 80% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps once more.”
Bigsby was a non-factor within the passing recreation, dropping two of 9 passes. He fumbled thrice within the run recreation, however that didn’t cease him from main the crew in carries and grading out as the higher runner of the 2. The run blocking on the crew improved however not dramatically sufficient to make them an asset.
While accidents actually contributed to only how far Etienne fell, Etienne was nonetheless exterior of the top-20 working backs early within the season earlier than accidents took their toll.
Nailing the league-winning working backs
James Cook, Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs have been my three league-winning working backs. They have been all slated to be the clear lead working backs on playoff groups, so I usually had them ranked forward of consensus and forward of gamers like Etienne and Rachaad White. All three completed among the many high 10 working backs in fantasy factors per recreation.
Mixon was notably noteworthy as a result of he was included within the “My Guys“ piece on the finish of the fantasy draft season. He was typically included as the perfect fourth-round goal within the “Perfect Draft Strategy” sequence, together with the closing 12-team version. While he missed a while early within the season as a result of damage, he was nonetheless the fourth-round choose most probably to steer a crew to the fantasy playoffs at ESPN.
Ranking Derrick Henry and De’Von Achane increased than consensus
While I wasn’t as vocal about my help for Henry or Achane, I ended up with them as my sixth and ninth-ranked working backs, respectively, whereas the consensus had them ninth and Eleventh. They completed fourth and seventh in fantasy factors per recreation. My solely concern with Henry was quantity. I famous Achane was the riskiest of the working again picks, however one which I used to be extra prepared to take than others.
Knowing Bucky Irving could be a significant factor within the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield
I famous instantly after the NFL draft that Irving was the large winner at working again. I ended up rating Irving 4 rounds forward of consensus and calling him one among my sleepers. Rachaad White was one of many 5 gamers I listed as my gamers to keep away from this season, and I had White as an possibility two rounds later than consensus. The solely gamers within the high 36 by ADP for whom I used to be a spherical or decrease than consensus have been Etienne and White.
The two ended up back-to-back in fantasy factors per recreation, and Irving was a full level per recreation forward of White. I preferred Irving largely for his alternative to be the lead rusher within the Tampa Bay backfield, however he exceeded expectations with a top-10 PFF dashing grade amongst working backs with no less than 100 carries. White remained fantasy-relevant largely due to his landing complete. His 9 touchdowns are tied for Twentieth-most amongst all gamers no matter place. He additionally improved considerably as a participant, which helped reduce his dropoff.
Avoiding Zamir White
Not drafting White was the working again opinion I felt most strongly about. He was the consensus RB22, and I had him at RB32, almost three rounds decrease than ADP. White didn’t have a single week as a top-32 fantasy working again.
White appeared like a giant winner in each free company and the draft after the crew misplaced Josh Jacobs and solely added Alexander Mattison in free company and sixth-round rookie Dylan Laube within the draft. He was RB9 over the ultimate 4 weeks of 2023 when Jacobs was injured.
The downside was that the Raiders had a brand new offensive coordinator, and it was clear all through the preseason that White wouldn’t be used equally to final 12 months. He wouldn’t play on third downs or two-minute drills, and his position on early downs wasn’t safe. Mattison performed considerably on early downs in a rotation with White, and even Laube was given some alternatives. Teams keep away from utilizing their working again within the preseason greater than most positions to keep away from them taking pointless hits, and White performed into the second half of a preseason recreation.
I absolutely detailed why White must be averted amongst my 5 gamers to keep away from piece and boldly predicted that he wouldn’t be a fantasy starter by mid-season. White’s fantasy manufacturing was even worse than anticipated within the first few weeks. Mattison vultured touchdowns, and the Raiders offense was as dangerous as anticipated, which at all times hurts early down-backs. White misplaced his job to Mattison. Injuries additionally took their toll over the remainder of the season, however White was benched earlier than the accidents began.
Listing Chase Brown as a breakout
The working again in Joe Burrow’s offense had been a goldmine for fantasy functions, so if one among Zack Moss or Brown may pull forward from the opposite, that working again would have numerous fantasy worth. I ended up with Moss and Brown back-to-back in my fantasy rankings, whereas ADP had a 17-spot hole between the 2, making Brown the higher worth.
Moss landed on season-ending injured reserve mid-season, and Brown averaged 20.6 PPR factors from Weeks 9-17. While it took an damage for Brown to work out absolutely, the final technique within the mid-to-late rounds of the drafts ought to concentrate on eventualities the place a participant may work out in a giant method.
Ranking Nick Chubb decrease than consensus
Chubb was a consensus RB34, whereas I put Him at RB42. Early in 2023, he wanted surgical procedure to restore his MCL, a meniscus and later his ACL. Players are usually a lot much less environment friendly when initially getting back from accidents that extreme. Chubb has at all times been an elite runner, however his fantasy worth has been restricted by not enjoying on passing downs. Other working backs getting back from main accidents have, at instances, been OK as a result of quantity, however Chubb was by no means going to see sufficient quantity.
My backside line in his participant profile was, “Chubb is an entire gamble. He has top-10 potential, however there’s additionally an opportunity he splits early-down snaps all season and underperforms, making him unreliable as a fantasy starter. In a extra informal league, somebody will possible draft him a lot sooner than they need to, primarily based on his fame and with out understanding the damage dangers.”
Chubb was a top-24 working again in solely two of his eight video games. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
Ranking Chuba Hubbard increased than consensus
I ranked Hubbard as RB36, whereas consensus had him at RB41. I used to be excessive on Hubbard by two rounds in comparison with consensus. While a lot of the gamers drafted in that vary have been high-upside backups, Hubbard was a starter who could be restricted later within the season as soon as Jonathon Brooks was wholesome. A mix of establishing himself forward of Miles Sanders and a scarcity of optimism round Brooks’ well being led me to maneuver Hubbard up the rankings. Dave Canales’ historical past with RB1’s in fantasy gave at least some purpose for optimism for prime quantity.
Hubbard ended up as a top-10 runner by PFF run grade, and Brooks’ damage lasted longer than many anticipated, main Hubbard to exceed expectations. There was a little bit of luck right here, however the basic thought course of of getting a projected starter forward of the high-upside rookies was usually the precise one.
What I Got Wrong
Not drafting Saquon Barkley within the first spherical
Barkley has been the highest working again in fantasy soccer this season. In his participant profile, I knew an enormous season may very well be in retailer for Barkley. The improved offensive line was going to be a significant optimistic for Barkley. Breakaway large runs have been Barkley’s robust level in latest seasons, and the road was going to create the likelihood for these large performs, which made for lots of upside.
There have been too many causes for concern round Barkley that I didn’t have for different gamers, which led me to decrease Barkley to the early components of the second spherical. First, there was the tush push resulting in Jalen Hurts doubtlessly stealing too many touchdowns. However, Barkley ended up with 9 touchdowns of over 10 yards. The subsequent most by a participant was 5, and the common for a crew is 2.5. No different working again since 2010 has greater than seven in a season. Adrian Peterson had 9 in his historic rookie season, DeAngelo Williams earned 9 in 2008, and Chris Johnson completed with eight in his 2,000-yard season in 2009.
These large performs make an infinite distinction for fantasy soccer functions. If you eliminated all gamers’ 10 or more-yard landing runs, Barkley would have the ninth-most PPR factors per recreation for working backs.
Concern was additionally expressed about his receiving. Barkley set season lows for receptions per recreation and receiving yards per recreation, however his large positive aspects within the run recreation have been so good that the shortage of receiving manufacturing didn’t matter. The different concern was merely how good a runner he was.
He was good, however when contemplating first-round picks, you want somebody glorious. Loads of the blame for Barkley’s numbers lately may very well be blamed on the offense and offensive line with the New York Giants. It is tough to separate a working again from his crew. His charge at avoiding tackles has been low in previous seasons and remained low this season, however once more, that didn’t matter together with his explosive runs.
I’m OK that I didn’t predict Barkley would have a historic charge of massive performs that we haven’t seen in 15 years, however extra will be completed to separate a runner from their crew, and perhaps there was extra sign that Barkley was nonetheless a wonderful participant regardless of his stats.
The working backs to focus on in rounds seven and eight
I most well-liked choosing two working backs within the first six rounds. The commonest working again I instructed within the seventh spherical was Tony Pollard, and he was the one one of many 10 working backs within the seventh or eighth spherical to complete among the many high 24 in fantasy factors per recreation. However, typically I’d recommend choosing a unique working again, which didn’t go nicely.
I additionally instructed Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams and Jaylen Warren as working backs in these two rounds, however they lived as much as their ADP. In a preseason recreation, the Giants used their starters for a complete half, and Singletary dominated offensive snaps over Eric Gray, suggesting a big position for him. Williams and Warren have been listed amongst my breakout gamers for the season.
The working backs on this vary have been usually gamers in clear two-back committees and beginning working backs with loads of younger competitors. The fantasy group usually did a very good job of projecting working backs this season and a scarcity of gamers popping out of nowhere possible contributed to the gamers in these rounds not being of a lot worth. The high 12 working backs in fantasy factors per recreation have been all among the many high 18 working backs picked. Seventeen of the highest 20 have been picked within the first 5 rounds.
I may have been increased or decrease on any working backs on this vary, however I might have been flawed on the working backs I used to be excessive on. Ideally, I might have been increased on the highest 20 working backs typically and decrease on gamers exterior of the highest 20, however that doesn’t essentially imply the identical tendencies will maintain subsequent season. This might be one other development to look into this offseason.
Missing on J.Ok. Dobbins and Rico Dowdle
A number of working backs have been picked exterior the highest 100, which impacted fantasy groups this season. Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard and Bucky Irving have been three of the 5 gamers who completed within the high 30 in fantasy factors per recreation, which I used to be excessive on. The different two have been Dobbins and Dowdle, who I used to be decrease than consensus.
With Dobbins, I wasn’t anticipating him to take such a excessive proportion of carries for Los Angeles. I additionally didn’t anticipate the Chargers to be nearly as good as they’ve been, permitting the crew to run as a lot as they’ve. He’s carried the ball no less than 14 instances in all however three of the video games he performed. Dobbins’ damage historical past performed a giant half in my perception that he was unlikely to see that enormous workload. Given how a lot different gamers have struggled to return from a number of accidents, I’m unsure there are any long-term takeaways right here.
With Dowdle, there wasn’t a lot in his profile to recommend he could be an incredible participant, however the path to quantity was there. Sincere McCormick, Jeremy McNichols and Emanuel Wilson have no less than performed nicely when given the chance after not having a historical past of success within the NFL. It’s potential I’m not accounting nicely sufficient for high-end outcomes for working backs the place there isn’t a lot pattern dimension of knowledge for that working again.
Grey Area
Preseason Confirmations
Many backfields modified this offseason, as gamers have been on new groups with new teaching staffs. In just a few circumstances, groups used their starters for no less than a part of a recreation within the preseason. Their backfield adopted a rotation that we anticipated they’d use within the common season, and the preseason utilization carried on into the common season as anticipated. While these aren’t essentially issues I obtained proper as a result of most individuals obtained it proper, they did result in extra confidence in rating specific gamers.
In preseason Week 1, the Commanders and Titans, with new offensive play-callers, showcased their new two-man backfields with Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Both groups used a heavy rotation of gamers, as Robinson and Pollard performed extra on early downs and Ekeler and Spears enjoying extra on passing downs. The Titans used their starters once more within the third recreation. That time, Pollard performed the primary drive and Spears the second. Typically, a working again enjoying one drive and exiting doesn’t talk about how the 2 will rotate and solely factors to which working again is forward.
The Broncos used starters in each their first and second video games. The first recreation instructed that Samaje Perine would nonetheless be a part of the rotation, however the second recreation reversed that thought. They used a two-man rotation, which appeared unsettled, and that rotation has continued all through the season.
The Browns’ third preseason recreation confirmed Jerome Ford was forward of Pierre Strong Jr. on the depth chart. The Bears’ first preseason recreation had some odd utilization, as D’Andre Swift solely performed two snaps however not the primary two. It usually instructed the Bears would use an early down again and a third-down again. Travis Homer was in rivalry for the third-down position. Homer or Roschon Johnson has performed important snaps on third downs all through the season.
What I Got Right
Drafting Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Justin Jefferson over Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson
I agreed with ADP that Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill must be the primary three picks for higher or worse. ADP had Robinson and Hall as the subsequent two picks, whereas I constantly had them decrease than Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson. This was constant in each my rankings and good draft articles.
The purpose was Chase, St. Brown and Jefferson have been a lot safer bets. They have been all top-12 final season, and whereas Jefferson was altering quarterbacks, it was very secure to imagine they’d all be nice this 12 months. They have been the highest three large receivers in fantasy factors per recreation. There was extra threat round Robinson and Hall. Robinson had a brand new teaching employees and a proficient Tyler Allgeier behind him. Breece Hall hasn’t seen as many targets with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
Robinson had an incredible season, however groups who drafted one of many three large receivers have been likelier to make the fantasy playoffs this 12 months.
Ranking Davante Adams increased than consensus
I ended up with Adams because the 14th-best choose within the draft, whereas the consensus had him as choose 20. In my good draft technique articles, he was typically a mid-second-round choose. I had him forward of Marvin Harrison Jr. at large receiver and working backs like Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne Jr. and Isiah Pacheco.
In his participant profile, I acknowledged he wasn’t absolutely the identical participant he as soon as was, however he nonetheless performed at a really excessive degree. The basic pleasure was on his reunion with Luke Getsy. He scored the 14th-most fantasy factors by a large receiver over the primary three weeks. He then reunited with Aaron Rodgers with the New York Jets. Since Week 7, Adams has scored the Tenth-most fantasy factors.
Ranking Deebo Samuel Sr. and Michael Pittman Jr. decrease than consensus
I usually was at or forward of consensus for every of the highest 14 large receivers. The first two large receivers I had that have been notably decrease than consensus have been Samuel and Pittman. They had ADPs within the late third spherical, the place I had each as fourth-round picks.
Both gamers have skilled accidents this season, possible impacting their progress. However, there was additionally concern in regards to the competitors for touches. The 49ers and Colts emphasize the run recreation, making it more durable for them to succeed in their goal totals than receivers in different high-powered offenses. Pittman ranks thirty fourth in targets, whereas Samuel ranks Fortieth.
Trusting proficient rookie large receivers on below-average offenses
Ten large receivers have been picked throughout the first 37 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, giving fantasy managers loads of choices. Marvin Harrison Jr. was picked two spots forward of Malik Nabers, however the distinction in touchdown spot led Harrison to get picked almost three rounds forward of Nabers in fantasy drafts.
Brian Thomas Jr. was the fourth large receiver chosen within the NFL Draft. Still, he was chosen behind Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey in fantasy drafts due to their touchdown spots. I usually trusted Nabers’s and Thomas Jr.’s expertise and potential quantity, which led me to name Nabers a league winner and Thomas Jr. a breakout.
While loads of rookies have performed nicely, Nabers and Thomas Jr. lead all rookie large receivers in targets, resulting in probably the most receptions and yards. Both gamers have far exceeded their ADP.
Ranking Jaxon Smith-Njigba increased than consensus
There have been solely two large receivers with a top-100 ADP that I had ranked no less than a spherical and a half forward of consensus ADP: Rashee Rice and Smith-Njigba. The backside line of his participant profile was:
“For Smith-Njigba to constantly be in fantasy beginning lineups, two issues must occur: he must play higher, and he must play extra in two-receiver units. If neither occurs, he ought to stay on fantasy benches except there’s an incredible matchup. If simply one among these components happens, he might be a price at his present ADP of WR45. If each occur, he may turn into a top-20 large receiver.”
After that article was written, Smith-Njigba took restricted preseason snaps, which included enjoying in 12 personnel. Tyler Lockett wasn’t enjoying within the preseason, so his elevated enjoying time was no assure, but it surely elevated the chances sufficient to maneuver Smith-Njigba up the rankings. Brian Thomas Jr. was the one large receiver drafted later than Smith-Njigba in fantasy drafts and ended up with a greater season.
Listing Christian Kirk as a participant to keep away from
Kirk was the one notable large receiver I had ranked two full rounds decrease than his consensus ADP. I had considerations about his goal charge along with his utilization within the pink zone and two-receiver units.
He didn’t play in 12 personnel with the starters within the preseason in 2023. That performed out for one week, after which Zay Jones suffered an damage, resulting in extra enjoying time for Kirk. He didn’t play in 12 personnel once more this preseason, which performed out whereas he was wholesome. He performed in 24 out of a potential 120 snaps out of 12 personnel in his eight wholesome video games. This led to fewer routes per recreation, targets, receptions and receiving yards.
In his nice fantasy season with the Jaguars, he scored eight touchdowns. The Jaguars had three different targets with reputations for scoring touchdowns, making it unlikely Kirk could be prioritized close to the purpose line. Kirk acquired three of a potential 18 targets when the Jaguars have been inside 10 yards of scoring, main to 1 landing.
Kirk completed the season 57th in fantasy factors per recreation. Amari Cooper was the one large receiver drafted forward of him with worse fantasy factors per recreation this season.
Malachi Corley as a participant to keep away from
Typically, a rookie can show they’re excessive on the depth chart within the preseason, but it surely’s widespread sufficient for a rookie to begin low on their depth chart and work their method up. An exception was made for Corley. Throughout the preseason, he solely performed in 11 personnel. Generally, large receivers must be on an offense that runs a excessive charge of 11 personnel and has a excessive goal charge to be fantasy-relevant in that position.
In their closing preseason recreation, the Jets rested each starters and key backups. They rested all three different rookies the Jets drafted on offense, however Corley wanted to play in that recreation. While it’s OK to be a backup at the beginning of a rookie season, he was enjoying with gamers who largely didn’t make the roster. Nine of the 14 gamers who performed on the primary drive of the ultimate preseason recreation have been both launched or placed on injured reserve earlier than Week 1, with backup lineman Max Mitchell as the one participant with important enjoying time this season. Corley’s being that far down the depth chart was a significant pink flag.
While Corley was solely getting drafted in large leagues or leagues with deep benches, Corley didn’t appear definitely worth the threat in these leagues.
What I Got Wrong
Ranking Chris Olave increased than the consensus
Olave joined Davante Adams as the 2 large receivers I used to be highest on relative to consensus within the first two rounds. He completed because the WR16 in 2023, and I anticipated the brand new teaching employees to result in extra passing and Olave to proceed his ascension as a younger large receiver.
Olave had six video games the place he performed no less than 70% of the Saints’ offensive snaps and gained no less than 80 receiving yards in 4 of these six video games. He was held to 10 and 11 yards within the different two video games. In these video games, Rashid Shaheed carried out strongly. While I used to be additionally excessive on Shaheed, I didn’t anticipate him getting in the best way of Olave’s fantasy worth.
Olave suffered concussions very early in two different video games, which made his per-game stats look a lot worse than he performed. Ignoring these video games, he completed with 12.5 PPR factors per recreation, which was nonetheless a step down from the final two seasons somewhat than a step up.
Calling Jaylen Waddle a league-winner
Waddle’s per-play stats, alongside together with his age, equally made Waddle appear to be one of many league’s high large receivers with the potential to overhaul Tyreek Hill because the Dolphins’ high receiver sooner somewhat than later.
Waddle gained 109 receiving yards in Week 1. Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2 and returned in Week 8. Since then, Waddle has proven up on the damage report as a result of a quadricep, hamstring and knee accidents. While he’s flashed a few of his nice play in latest weeks, together with an eight catch, 144-yard efficiency in Week 12 and a 99-yard efficiency in Week 14, it’s general been a disappointing season.
While a few of it was dangerous damage luck to him and his quarterback, I used to be in all probability too dismissive of his accidents from final season. I used to be additionally not excessive sufficient on Jonnu Smith, which might be lined within the tight finish part. Smith’s ascension has possible harm Waddle’s goal share.
Ranking Diontae Johnson increased than the consensus
Johnson was the third large receiver I used to be no less than a spherical above consensus, becoming a member of Waddle and Rashee Rice. I believed he may have a comparable season to 2022, the place he performed the Steelers’ X-receiver position and had one of many highest goal charges within the league. Johnson scored the Twentieth-most fantasy factors for a large receiver over the primary seven weeks. It got here from three nice video games combined with 4 quiet ones.
After that, the Panthers traded him to the Baltimore Ravens. He’s caught one go within the final two months. Teams hardly ever commerce away gamers in the identical calendar 12 months they traded for that participant, so this appeared somewhat unpredictable.
Listing Rome Odunze as a breakout
I usually adopted the technique of drafting proficient rookies. While this labored with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., it didn’t with Rome Odunze. The Chicago Bears receiver has put up positive numbers for a rookie, however they simply haven’t been sufficient to warrant the draft capital. I used to be positive with my course of right here, however I wished to incorporate Odunze right here for completeness.
Ranking Jordan Addison decrease than the consensus
While I used to be proper on the primary 4 large receivers I ranked no less than 10 spots decrease than ADP, I used to be not proper on Addison. In his participant profile, I acknowledged he may very well be a top-20 large receiver if every part goes proper, and thru 17 weeks, he was Twentieth in fantasy factors per recreation.
The most important concern was at quarterback, the place Sam Darnold had a historical past of inaccurate passes and dumping off to different positions extra typically than different quarterbacks. Addison has the best common depth of goal and deep goal charge on the crew, so this might doubtlessly affect Addison greater than different gamers. Darnold’s high quality of play has been one of many season’s greatest surprises, which has drastically helped Addison.
There have been additionally some considerations a few suspension. A courtroom look that was set for October seventh was delayed till December. Any potential suspension won’t occur till 2025.
boldly predicting a giant season for Brandin Cooks
Cooks improved because the 2023 season progressed. The Cowboys’ passing offense appeared primed for a giant 12 months after not investing a lot at working again. He scored a landing in Week 1 however then had three quiet video games, adopted by an damage that price him seven video games. Once he was again, Dak Prescott was out. There may very well be one thing to dig into, both with Cooks’ decline or the Cowboys’ offense early within the season.
Brenden Rice doubtlessly being a part of the Chargers large receiver rotation
Rice was a seventh-round choose for the Los Angeles Chargers. In the second preseason recreation, he began forward of Quentin Johnston and D.J. Chark Jr. The three continued to rotate all through the primary half. I ended up shifting Rice up in my rankings, though not excessive sufficient to get drafted in most leagues.
Rice began the season as a wholesome inactive regardless of Chark being on injured reserve. Rice solely performed three offensive snaps in Week 7 and has been on injured reserve since Week 8. While this wasn’t the most important miss, it’s at all times good to recollect some unusual issues can occur within the preseason.
Grey Area
Considering Puka Nacua a first-round choose
Throughout the offseason, Nacua was my favourite late first-round choose within the good draft technique articles. As his ADP fell, he turned the favourite choose to begin the second spherical. I didn’t really feel snug calling this a victory after he suffered an damage in Week 1 and didn’t return till Week 8. He’s averaged the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation, so for the second half of the season, he was price that choose.
The proportion of groups with Nacua who made the fantasy playoffs was roughly as anticipated for somebody picked at Nacua’s spot. Theoretically, it will have been increased had it not been for the damage. I notably had Nacua increased than Garrett Wilson, who had comparable advance charges. Wilson had extra complete fantasy factors, however Nacua has been higher per recreation.
Considering Rashee Rice the participant to construct your fantasy draft round
I had Rice as a second-round choose when initially doing my 2024 rankings. Then Rice confronted authorized points that made it appear to be a suspension was potential. As we drew nearer to the season, it turned clearer {that a} suspension was impossible for 2024.
I ended up with Rice two rounds forward of ADP, the best I used to be on any participant within the high 100. His per-play stats have been elite as a rookie, and by the top of the season, he was lastly seeing a full-time position within the Chiefs offense. I included him in my breakout article and my guys’ article. Rice was considered as such a price that my good draft technique articles modified to make sure Rice could be drafted,
After Week 3, Rice had the second-most fantasy factors for a large receiver at 64.3 factors. He suffered a season-ending damage in Week 4. The thought course of and choice round Rice have been proper, however accidents occur in soccer. Unfortunately, it occurred to the participant I used to be highest on.
Including Jayden Reed as a participant to keep away from
Throughout Reed’s profession, he has solely performed in three large receiver units. He ended the 2023 season on hearth, but it surely was when the Packers had a number of accidents on offense. Green Bay invested within the run recreation within the offseason and had well being at tight finish. As lengthy because the Packers have been successful, Reed wouldn’t be on the sector very a lot. Typically, slot receivers have low common depths of targets, to allow them to no less than see numerous quick targets, giving them a good ground even when they solely play in 11 personnel. Reed had the second-highest common depth of goal of large receivers from the slot final season, making him much more unstable.
Reed had no less than 110 receiving yards in every of the Packers’ first three losses and averaged 37 receiving yards of their wins. Luckily, he has seven touchdowns on the season, however he additionally has 5 video games with two or fewer receptions. While I knew the massive video games have been potential, I additionally knew it will be arduous to know once they have been coming, so there may very well be weeks the place you sat him and he had an incredible recreation or began him and he posted little or no.
I had Reed at WR44, with consensus at WR36. He’s averaged the Fortieth-most factors per recreation.
Reason to be involved in regards to the Buffalo Bills‘ large receivers
The Bills traded away Stefon Diggs this offseason and let Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty all depart. They added Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free company and Keon Coleman within the draft. The basic considering was that Shakir and Samuel would constantly be on the sector in three-receiver units, with Coleman in some sort of rotation with Hollins, relying on how he developed as a rookie.
During the first and second preseason video games, it turned clear that the plan was to have two taller receivers on the sector in three-receiver units and solely one among Shakir or Samuel. This led me to be low on each Shakir and Samuel. Both have been ranked amongst large receivers within the 50s by consensus ADP, and I had them within the 60s.
This labored out nicely for not drafting Samuel however not for Shakir. Their cumulative worth wasn’t as excessive as anticipated, however Shakir ended up forward of Samuel on the depth chart, so I ended up being decrease on Shakir than I ought to have been. Shakir was the large receiver who was constantly ok to be in fantasy lineups in leagues the place you begin three large receivers however not a league winner.
Other Preseason Notes
- The Texans’ preseason utilization made it clear Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs could be the first receivers in two-receiver units, whereas Tank Dell was utilized in three-receiver units. It additionally instructed the next snap charge for Collins than final 12 months. Those all ended up being true, however not all that shocking.
- Xavier Worthy was a transparent starter instantly, which has been true all season. Even now, he constantly sees extra enjoying time than the opposite large receivers of the Chiefs.
- The Patriots’ large receiver rotation appeared unsettled all through the preseason. The exception was Demario Douglas, who was the slot receiver in three-receiver units solely all through the preseason. That was how Douglas was utilized all through the season whereas the 2 exterior spots remained unsettled.
- During coaching camp, there was hypothesis that Cedric Tillman may begin forward of Elijah Moore. They each performed within the closing preseason recreation, and their utilization instructed Moore could be forward of Tillman, which was true. However, it additionally instructed that Moore would play extra on the skin, leaving the slot position to Jerry Jeudy. During the season, Moore has performed extra within the slot than Jeudy.
- There appeared to be some indicators Adonai Mitchell may see notable enjoying time even when the entire Colts’ large receivers had been wholesome. Mitchell has performed nicely on a per-play foundation this season, however Alec Pierce having some large video games early within the season slowed Mitchell’s momentum.
- One of the larger tales within the first two weeks of the preseason by way of utilization was Jahan Dotson’s enjoying within the slot for the Washington Commanders. However, that went nowhere as a result of Dotson was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles.
What I Got Right
The significance of choosing a top-12 tight finish
I’ve pressured the significance of choosing a top-12 tight finish for the previous two seasons. I had the highest 12 tight ends three or 4 spots increased than ADP on common. Tight finish is the one place the place a participant’s expertise is most intently correlated to their fantasy worth, making them considerably simpler to foretell. Nine of the highest 12 gamers by ADP are within the high 12 by way of fantasy factors per recreation. In distinction, that was true for seven quarterbacks, seven working backs and 7 large receivers.
This means it was simpler to attend at different positions and nonetheless discover worth later within the draft than at tight finish.
Listing Trey McBride as a league winner
There was a transparent high 4 tight ends primarily based on ADP, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and Trey McBride. All 4 are within the high 10 in fantasy factors per recreation, however McBride is the one one who has matched and exceeded expectations.
McBride’s most important concern was the Marvin Harrison Jr. addition and the way that would affect McBride’s goal charge. There have been a number of examples of tight ends being elite fantasy producers regardless of having an incredible large receiver on the crew, so McBride was the tight finish I used to be highest on relative to ADP amongst these 4. Harrison hasn’t performed in addition to anticipated, which has doubtlessly helped McBride, however his low landing charge has harm his fantasy manufacturing.
More fantasy groups with McBride made the playoffs in comparison with the opposite three tight ends.
Ranking Evan Engram decrease than consensus
While there may be usually a excessive correlation between PFF receiving grade and fantasy manufacturing for tight ends, Engram has been an exception. Because of that, I’ve usually been low on Engram. In 2023, he performed like typical a lot of the 12 months and had distinctive manufacturing solely as soon as Christian Kirk went down as a result of damage.
The Jaguars have performed their starters greater than most groups within the preseason, and Evan Engram performed notably fewer snaps than typical. He performed 67% of snaps within the second preseason recreation and 65% within the third. He was often round 79% of his crew’s offensive snaps in 2023. This season, he performed 68%, 61% and 56% of snaps in his first three video games, probably as a result of damage. Once Christian Kirk was injured, Engram returned to over 80% of snaps. He was all the way down to 71-75% in his final three wholesome video games. These adjustments solely had a delicate impact on his routes run.
A mix of barely fewer routes, an damage, and the Jaguars’ offense merely not enjoying in addition to up to now led to Engram averaging fewer fantasy factors per recreation than in different latest seasons.
Rankings Brock Bowers increased than consensus
I had Bowers 9 spots increased than consensus, putting him forward of David Njoku in my rankings. Unfortunately, I usually did not advocate to draft Bowers as a result of I advocated choosing a decent finish early. My concern was that when you focused Bowers and missed, your choices turned far more restricted. Dallas Goedert was an possibility, however after that, Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson, Luke Musgrave and Isaiah Likely have been the subsequent gamers primarily based on ADP. In some leagues, when Bowers fell, I drafted him as a second tight finish possibility.
PFF beloved Bowers’ expertise. In one preseason drive, he lined up everywhere in the subject, which was encouraging. The concern was the quarterback scenario and competitors for targets and snaps with Davante Adams and Michael Mayer. Two of Bowers’ worst three video games occurred early within the season when Adams was nonetheless on the crew.
Ranking Dalton Schultz decrease than the consensus
Schultz was the tight finish I used to be lowest on in comparison with ADP amongst gamers with a high 160 ADP. There have been considerations in regards to the large receivers being more healthy this 12 months, the Stefon Diggs addition, an even bigger concentrate on the run recreation with Joe Mixon and extra competitors for snaps within the tight finish room.
Most of these issues didn’t maintain. All three high large receivers have missed important time this 12 months, and the Texans have a number of backup tight ends on injured reserve, leaving Schultz with a excessive snap charge. The increased run charge with Mixon is the one concern that has held. That’s been sufficient for Schultz to fall to twenty fifth in fantasy factors per recreation, the worst amongst all tight ends with a high 160 ADP.
Ranking Cade Otton increased than the consensus
ADP ranked Otton because the Twenty sixth-best tight finish possibility, however I ranked him at TE18. My logic was that he was a younger tight finish with assured enjoying time, so there was an opportunity he may enhance, see the next goal share and be a fantasy starter. I most well-liked that to a number of the older tight ends we knew had restricted ceilings or have been in rotation.
That ended up enjoying out, and he averaged the Eleventh-most fantasy factors for tight ends this season.
Considering Cole Kmet undraftable
Kmet was thought-about one of many high tight finish sleepers, ending with a TE16 ADP. I had him considerably decrease, together with him within the 5 gamers to keep away from and an aggressive, daring prediction. The preliminary concern was that including Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen would create an excessive amount of competitors for targets.
Then, within the preseason, the Bears used the same rotation to that of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s previous stints with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. It concerned one every-down tight finish and one passing-down tight finish. Gerald Everett typically took the passing-down position. The Bears signed Everett in free company, and the preseason utilization instructed that Everett may very well be forward within the rotation.
This performed out within the first regular-season recreation. Everett began, performed 34 snaps and ran 21 routes, whereas Kmet performed 27 snaps, ran 12 routes and caught one go for 4 yards.
Kmet returned to the beginning lineup by Week 2, and his enjoying time finally returned to regular, however Kmet was hardly ever a precedence within the offense. Since Week 8, he’s been held to 14 or fewer receiving yards in seven of 10 video games. While he’s had just a few splash weeks, it’s unimaginable to know once they would occur, so he wasn’t serving to fantasy beginning lineups.
He is at present twenty fourth in fantasy factors per recreation. While that wasn’t precisely thirtieth or worse, he wasn’t somebody price rostering in fantasy leagues this season.
What I Got Wrong
Drafting Sam LaPorta as an early third-round choose
LaPorta’s ADP was late within the third spherical, however he and McBride have been the 2 I advocated choosing forward of their ADP early. After his record-breaking rookie season, I believed we’d see extra of the identical.
There hasn’t been a notable dropoff in his receiving grade. The first downside is he’s run noticeably fewer routes. The Lions dominate most of their video games, main them to stay with the run recreation and never must go the ball. His enjoying time has been comparable, however his routes per recreation have decreased by round 10%.
Beyond that, his targets per route have additionally decreased. Jameson Williams and David Montgomery have skilled substantial will increase in targets this season relative to final. While there’s a likelihood one thing was up particularly with LaPorta, which may very well be seemed into, the scenario may need been sufficient to maintain LaPorta out of the highest 5 tight ends this season.
Calling Dalton Kincaid a league winner and Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson as breakouts
Tight ends have been my worst place to predict precisely this season, and this is because of lacking these three younger tight ends early within the season. I usually thought all three had proven some promise within the NFL, and sufficient modified within the offseason to recommend they may play even higher this 12 months. The articles went into extra specifics about what I preferred about them.
All three completed exterior of the highest 18 in fantasy factors per recreation. While it appears comparatively secure to say Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and George Kittle would be the three highest-ranked tight ends heading into subsequent season, I’ll be spending numerous time digging into what occurred to the younger tight ends this season earlier than being assured on my rankings for TE4 and past, in addition to one of the best methods to take when choosing tight ends subsequent season.
Ranking David Njoku decrease than consensus
While I used to be increased than ADP for eight of the highest 12 tight ends, Evan Engram and Njoku have been the 2 I used to be noticeably decrease on. For Njoku, it was his goal share splits with and with out Deshaun Watson in each 2022 and 2023, the place he was thrown at a lot much less when Watson was at quarterback.
He was higher with Watson this season than in previous seasons. His targets per route was as much as 23.8%, and he averaged 10.6 PPR factors per recreation with Watson. His goal charge with out Watson was roughly the identical, however his fantasy factors per recreation have been significantly better with out Watson at 15.1. He was injured for 3 video games early within the season, so there wasn’t a lot overlap when he and Watson have been wholesome. This would nonetheless have been a slight miss for me had Watson been the quarterback the entire season. Being low on Njoku was much more of a miss with different quarterbacks.
Ranking Jonnu Smith decrease than consensus
Smith was TE24 by ADP and I had him at TE31. Either method, he wasn’t getting drafted in most leagues, however the reasoning is price discussing. The Dolphins used their high three tight ends for half of the second preseason recreation. Smith was enjoying solely in three-receiver units. Tight ends in that position are usually very inconsistent from a fantasy perspective as a result of their lack of enjoying time.
Playing time was a giant downside for Smith early within the season. He performed lower than 50% of the offensive snaps within the Dolphins’ first six video games. He was held to 18 yards or fewer within the first 4 video games. At that time of the season, he was TE31. He put collectively large video games in Weeks 5 and seven, resulting in a rise in snaps by Week 8. While he didn’t do a lot from Weeks 8-10, he turned an elite tight finish by Week 11, which led to a different enhance in snaps. He’s been the highest fantasy tight finish during the last seven weeks.
Smith has the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade this season at 85.2 behind Kittle, Bowers and McBride. His earlier excessive was 79.3 in 2019. His grade in 2023 was 63.5, which was his lowest since 2018. On one hand, I can’t blame myself an excessive amount of for a decent finish having an eighth-year breakout that I didn’t see coming. On the opposite hand, there may very well be some purpose why he discovered success with the Tennessee Titans and Dolphins however not as a lot with the New England Patriots or Atlanta Falcons.
Grey Area
Listing Taysom Hill as one among my guys and a sleeper
I began fantasy draft season out on Hill, considering a brand new offensive coordinator wouldn’t use Hill the identical method Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael did, particularly at 34 years previous. However, speak in coaching camp combined with preseason utilization led to the thought Hill may very well be used much more this 12 months. Hill is a dangerous participant to begin like another tight finish exterior of the highest 10. However, Hill has the upside for a number of touchdowns, which most tight ends don’t have. This made Hill extra precious than most beginning tight ends within the league, main me to rank Hill twelfth whereas ADP had him twenty first. I had Hill 91 spots increased than ADP, which was probably the most for a participant with a high 250 ADP.
Hill completed fifth in fantasy factors per recreation at 12.9 and second in commonplace leagues. Hill had three video games as a top-five fantasy tight finish and 5 video games the place he didn’t do a lot. It’s arduous to think about him a hit when he missed seven video games. The Saints have handled a number of accidents this season, and it’s arduous to inform how a lot these accidents impacted Hill’s utilization.
Ranking Pat Freiermuth decrease than the consensus
Freiermuth wasn’t drafted to be a fantasy starter this season. The Arthur Smith addition was regarding for the tight finish room. Smith utilized a rotation of tight ends with each the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons, which made it very arduous to belief their tight ends. They had proficient gamers, however they have been very hit-and-miss. The Steelers used starters of their first and third preseason recreation, suggesting Freiermuth may not see a lot enjoying time in two tight finish units.
This was true in some weeks, however their run-blocking tight finish, MyCole Pruitt, has missed a number of video games as a result of damage, permitting Freiermuth to see extra enjoying time in these video games. Freirmuth has caught no less than two passes each recreation, and that ground has helped his fantasy totals this season. He’s caught just a few touchdowns, which have additionally helped, however he hasn’t had a recreation with greater than 70 yards.
The Steelers offense has performed higher than I anticipated, so Freiermuth has ended up with extra fantasy factors this season than I anticipated, however that also hasn’t been sufficient for Freiermuth to reside as much as his ADP.
What I Got Right
Considering Josh Allen a league-winner
By consensus, Allen was the general QB1, however I used to be a giant advocate for taking one of many high few quarterbacks, led by Allen. It was sufficient to listing Allen as one among my guys. The reasoning was that the highest few quarterbacks have been particular primarily based on their passing and dashing, and it will be very tough for different quarterbacks to match them in fantasy factors per recreation.
While Lamar Jackson has outscored him, anybody who drafted Allen wouldn’t be upset by his 24.1 fantasy factors per recreation.
Drafting a quarterback within the high 4 rounds
While Allen was my man, I additionally constantly advocated for Jalen Hurts within the center/late components of the third spherical and Jackson on the finish of the third or begin of the fourth. Those who drafted Allen, Hurts or Jackson had the highest charges of creating the fantasy playoffs for a second straight season.
Most groups who didn’t draft a quarterback that early have been caught altering quarterbacks from one week to the subsequent except you drafted Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels. C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Dak Prescott have been all quarterbacks throughout the high 70 of ADP, they usually all completed exterior the highest half of quarterbacks in fantasy factors per recreation.
Boldly predicting Jayden Daniels would common no less than 21 fantasy factors per recreation
I additionally included Daniels amongst my breakout quarterbacks. He was the one quarterback among the many high 15 that I had ranked a spherical higher than the consensus. Everything about Daniels instructed he would run the ball at a charge just like different elite fantasy choices. His 144 dashing makes an attempt and 864 dashing yards ranked second and first amongst quarterbacks, respectively. Luckily, his passing has additionally exceeded expectations.
Unfortunately, I didn’t advocate for drafting Daniels sufficient. Because I believed strongly within the elite quarterback choices, I solely often instructed choosing Daniels as a second possibility. The concern with ready for Daniels is that if another person sniped him, there could be no different choices to fall again on.
Daniels averaged 22.5 fantasy factors per recreation over the primary 17 weeks, so the daring prediction has come true.
Ranking Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Jordan Love decrease than the consensus
I ranked all three quarterbacks just a little greater than a spherical decrease than consensus, they usually didn’t reside as much as their ADP. I had Joe Burrow ranked increased than Richardson and Daniels forward of Murray and Love, whereas ADP had these reversed.
Loads of this needed to do with Daniels greater than these quarterbacks. In specific, Richardson and Daniels have been preferred for his or her dashing capability. Washington had arguably higher weapons, and Daniels confirmed extra dashing potential in faculty. This led me to rank choosing Richardson because the worst technique for choosing quarterbacks this 12 months since you may simply get Daniels just a few rounds later.
Listing Sam Darnold as a sleeper
Darnold was QB30 by ADP, however I had him ranked twenty first. I preferred Darnold for the quarterback-friendly offense in Minnesota, which included working extra performs than common, passing extra typically in comparison with expectations, and the nice receivers the Vikings have. His scenario was so significantly better than that of different quarterbacks that drafting Darnold forward of these quarterbacks was price drafting. Darnold exceeded my and everybody else’s expectations for simply how good he’s been as a passer, however every part in regards to the offense and his receivers has helped.
What I Got Wrong
Listing Trevor Lawrence as a breakout
While I didn’t usually advocate taking a second quarterback after drafting one of many elite choices, Lawrence was the one participant I’d contemplate. Lawrence completed enjoying like a fantasy starter final season, and Jacksonville upgraded on the exterior receiver spots.
Lawrence averaged 16.8 fantasy factors over the primary 9 weeks, which ranked sixteenth greatest amongst quarterbacks. He had a gradual begin to the season like typical, however from Weeks 4-9, he was the eighth-best fantasy quarterback. He performed round his ADP, however accidents price him the remainder of the season.
Missing right here had extra to do with dangerous damage luck and an unsurprisingly dangerous begin. I consider he would have been nearer to successful if he didn’t undergo the second-half accidents.
Ranking Jared Goff decrease than consensus
I had Goff 11 spots decrease than the consensus ADP. I had him at QB16 whereas ADP had him at QB15. I had Lawrence forward of Goff. I had most quarterbacks from QB9 to QB18 decrease than consensus due to how a lot I valued choosing a quarterback early. Most quarterbacks completed proper round ADP or just a little worse, however Goff was the exception exterior Jayden Daniels.
Goff completed exterior the highest 12 in fantasy factors per recreation every of the final 5 seasons. The Lions run-first offense made it unlikely he’d be a top-five possibility. Goff has been very environment friendly this season, with a career-high 9.1 yards per try and a career-high landing charge of seven% of his passes. Both of these marks are second-best to Lamar Jackson this season. Goff is at present at seventh in factors per recreation, and that’s possible the place he’ll max out, as he gained’t have the passing quantity or dashing quantity of the highest quarterback choices.
Ranking Bo Nix decrease than the consensus
I had Nix close to the underside of the fantasy quarterback rankings this 12 months. One large purpose was his passing weapons. In June, we ranked the Broncos third-to-last within the receiving corps, and that was earlier than the crew moved on from Tim Patrick, Samaje Perine, and finally Josh Reynolds.
Nix has completed within the high 10 in dashing yards and dashing touchdowns for a quarterback, which has been a giant assist. He additionally ranks within the high 10 in passing touchdowns. The Broncos’ basic success this season is price investigating this offseason.