• Will the Lions’ play-action passing be as robust in opposition to the Vikings? If Detroit desires to maintain the No. 1 seed, it might want to preserve its effectiveness in opposition to a Minnesota protection that defends play motion nicely.
• How will Carson Wentz deal with the blitz? The Broncos have blitzed on the third-highest price this 12 months, however Wentz excelled in opposition to additional rushers in his final begin.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and find out about 2025’s high prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting on your favourite NFL crew.
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the result of each soccer recreation is influenced by the 22 gamers on every crew’s facet, the area of interest, micro-level battles add an additional layer of nuance. That consists of gamers or models battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Before a short vacation hiatus, Week 16’s focus on Jayden Daniels underneath strain (70.4 PFF general grade, two big-time throws) and Steelers tight ends in opposition to the Ravens (six targets for 20 yards) had been impactful in figuring out which groups received two weeks in the past. Although fewer groups are enjoying with intentionality in Week 18, there are nonetheless components in every matchup that might determine if upsets maintain contenders out of the postseason.
Whether energy in opposition to energy, weak point in opposition to weak point or just a person warfare of nice consequence, listed below are six matchups with a big likelihood of figuring out winners this week.
Lions’ play-action passing vs. Vikings
The centerpiece of Week 18 is Vikings-Lions on Sunday Night Football, which really brings this collection full circle: The first version of “matchups” mentioned Jared Goff’s play in opposition to the blitz in Week 7. Goff will definitely have to get the ball out quick in opposition to strain but once more, however one other angle to observe is Detroit’s play motion.
The Lions have successfully been the NFL’s greatest play-action crew all 12 months. Detroit ranks first in play-action success price and EPA per play, to not point out second in crew offensive grade. Additionally, Goff’s 88.1 play-action passing grade ranks sixth amongst qualifiers.
However, Minnesota has been equally stingy in opposition to play-action appears to be like. The Vikings slot second in EPA per play and success price on play motion. At the identical time, the crew’s protection on play motion hasn’t been fairly as efficient, sitting solely 17th. Brian Flores’ protection hasn’t had a lot luck with getting residence on play motion both, producing simply the 22nd-best sack price.
In the primary matchup between these powerhouses, the Lions ran play motion 11 occasions to the tune of 11 yards per play and a 54.5% success price. Likewise, Goff recorded a 72.6 PFF passing grade, zero turnover-worthy performs and no sacks on play motion in opposition to the Vikings.
If Detroit’s play-action cross recreation continues to churn, it ought to permit the Lions to maintain up with Minnesota’s high-powered offense in a shootout — but when not, the Vikings may simply seize the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Bengals’ RPO offense vs. Steelers
Saturday night time’s matchup between the Bengals and Steelers presents a red-hot Cincinnati crew in opposition to a robust Steelers squad seeking to right course earlier than the playoffs. Keep an eye fixed on the Bengals’ use of RPOs on this one.
Pittsburgh’s protection has been a respectable legal responsibility in the course of the crew’s three-game skid, rating 27th in EPA per play and 24th in success price allowed in that span. Quite a lot of these points have stemmed from communication and protection integrity, the place RPOs can victimize a unit. The Steelers rank 29th in RPO success price and EPA per play this season. They have given up 14 first downs on RPOs over simply the previous three weeks — six greater than the next-closest crew.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ incredible offense hasn’t turned closely to RPOs all 12 months, operating simply 60 (22nd). Cincinnati hasn’t been particularly environment friendly on the ideas both: The Bengals place 31st in RPO EPA per play, and Joe Burrow’s 57.6 PFF passing grade on RPOs sits 34th out of 43 certified quarterbacks. He has tried solely 12 RPO throws all 12 months.
Even because the Bengals had been in common rhythm in opposition to Pittsburgh in Week 13, Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher known as just one RPO, relying extra on a standard dropback passing recreation (the place Burrow has excelled all 12 months). Will Cincinnati’s offensive braintrust capitalize on a Pittsburgh defensive weak point? And in that case, will the Steelers make the required fixes after 9 days of relaxation?
Carson Wentz when blitzed vs. Broncos
Although few of Sunday’s matchups carry super playoff implications, the sport with essentially the most ramifications is Chiefs-Broncos within the late window. If the Broncos need to win and lock down the AFC’s last playoff spot, they’ll must be cautious about blitzing Carson Wentz, who’s poised to start out rather than Patrick Mahomes.
Wentz has performed solely 9 snaps this 12 months, together with taking three dropbacks. That provides a really restricted pattern measurement of what to anticipate from the previous Philadelphia Eagle, however one can have a look at his final begin in Week 18 of 2023 in opposition to the 49ers. Wentz was usually terrific, particularly on blitzes — the place he went 7-of-7 with a 90.9 PFF general grade, one big-time throw, zero turnover-worthy performs and just one sack taken.
Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has galvanized the crew’s protection with the third-highest blitz price within the NFL, however these calls haven’t all the time been favorable. The Broncos rank simply 12th in EPA per play and 19th in success price when additional rushers are despatched, each under what one would count on for a protection that’s been stout for many of the 12 months.
In a frenetic Week 17 showdown, Joe Burrow carved up Denver’s blitz, finishing 21-of-29 makes an attempt for 2 big-time throws, zero turnover-worthy performs and an 86.3 PFF general grade on 31 dropbacks. Will Joseph maintain sending the warmth at Wentz, who principally hasn’t performed in a 12 months? And will that technique repay? If the backup-heavy Chiefs find yourself pulling off the upset, Wentz’s work in opposition to the blitz will seemingly be a serious purpose.
Jets‘ outside-zone speeding vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins will probably be pulling particularly onerous for Wentz and the Chiefs, however additionally they have to handle enterprise on the street in opposition to the Jets. For Mike McDaniel’s bunch, the main focus must be on New York’s outside-zone speeding.
Even although the Jets rank 26th in crew speeding grade, they’ve been environment friendly on outdoors zone, which the offense has turned to on 44% of runs. The Jets place sixth in EPA per play, seventh in success price and 14th in crew speeding grade when implementing outdoors zone. Rookie Braelon Allen ranks 10th amongst qualifying rushers with a 78.2 PFF speeding grade on these ideas, performing higher than Breece Hall (63.4).
Yet, the Dolphins have shut down outside-zone runs for many of the season. Miami ranks first in crew run-defense grade, ninth in EPA per play, 10th in success price and second in yards earlier than contact per carry in opposition to outdoors zone.
The warfare to observe on this one is who wins the road of scrimmage as a result of each groups have decisive benefits in both space. The Jets are ninth in common yards per carry after contact on outdoors zone, whereas the Dolphins rank simply 26th in that division. Meanwhile, New York sits solely 17th in yards earlier than contact per carry.
If the Dolphins can get to Allen and Hall early, it will put them in a superb place to win. But if not, the Jets would possibly be capable to thwart Miami’s playoff hopes by retaining runs alive.
Spencer Rattler throwing previous the sticks vs. Buccaneers
If the Buccaneers take down the beaten-up Saints, they’ll safe their fourth straight NFC South title. To achieve this, they’ll want to make sure their weak protection holds up in opposition to Rattler.
Tampa Bay’s protection has been an issue all season, rating 20th in crew grade. That’s very true on throws previous the sticks, the place the Buccaneers are 26th in EPA per play, 27th in success price and 28th in passer score allowed.
At the identical time, Rattler (51.3 PFF passing grade) hasn’t carried out admirably in his rookie season, together with on makes an attempt past the first-down marker. Rattler’s 69.1 PFF passing grade on throws previous the sticks sits 36th out of 43 certified quarterbacks, and his 8.6% turnover-worthy play price is the third-highest clip within the NFL.
Will Todd Bowles’ strain appears to be like overwhelm Rattler and maintain him from making an attempt correct throws downfield? Or will the rookie cling in and reap the benefits of a nasty secondary on deeper makes an attempt? In these rivals’ first go-around in Week 6, Rattler went 9-of-17 for 179 yards, one big-time throw, one turnover-worthy play and a 71.2 PFF passing grade on throws previous the sticks. If that holds, the Buccaneers might be in for a better recreation than they’d like.
Michael Penix Jr. throwing outdoors the numbers vs. Panthers
The Falcons’ final gasp at making the playoffs comes all the way down to them beating the Panthers and Tampa Bay shockingly slipping up in opposition to the Saints, however by no means say by no means. Atlanta’s odds would enhance much more if Penix performs higher in his bread-and-butter passing technique: outdoors the numbers.
Since his first NFL begin in Week 16, Penix has tried 41 passes outdoors the numbers, the third most within the league in that span. That’s not astounding, contemplating that strategy labored wonders for him in school at Washington. What is surprising, although, is that Penix hasn’t been very efficient on these passes. He’s notched solely a 57.7 PFF passing grade on throws outdoors the numbers up to now, good for 29th out of 32 qualifiers.
On the opposite facet of the road of scrimmage, the Panthers’ protection has been a multitude all season. That extends to perimeter protection: Carolina ranks 26th in crew protection grade and 29th in passer score allowed on throws to the far sides of the sector. Linebacker Josey Jewell (who didn’t play in Week 17 and hasn’t practiced up to now this week) is the one Panther inside the highest 100 of certified defenders in outside-the-numbers protection grade.
Will Penix and Atlanta’s vertical-threat playmakers discover their footing outdoors the hashes, or will Jaycee Horn and Carolina’s protection present some development in its last alternative of 2024? Atlanta has a myriad of strategies to win this recreation, however hitting on these particular passing probabilities would assist enormously.