• Can the Chargers maintain off a Houston stampede?: Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt vs. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. is a top-tier tackle-edge battle.
• Josh Allen has a tall process in opposition to Denver’s Cover 3: The Broncos have been one of many NFL’s finest defenses when turning to the look, as they usually do.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and find out about 2025’s prime prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting in your favourite NFL workforce.
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the end result of each soccer recreation is influenced by the 22 gamers on every workforce’s aspect, the area of interest, micro-level battles add an additional layer of nuance. That consists of gamers or models battling head-to-head and even defensive coaches attempting to outscheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 18’s emphasis on the Jets’ outside-zone dashing recreation (seven carries for 41 yards and a 42.9% success price) and Spencer Rattler throwing previous the sticks (7-for-20, two turnover-worthy performs, 44.2 PFF passing grade) helped decide who gained within the final week of the common season. Now, the stakes are even larger as the primary week of the postseason will get underway.
Whether power in opposition to power, weak point in opposition to weak point or just a person struggle of nice consequence, right here is one matchup to pay shut consideration to in all six wild-card battles.
Chargers pass-blocking vs. Texans edge rushers
If you need to see iron sharpening iron, look no additional than the trenches when the Chargers have the ball. The first wild-card recreation pits an elite deal with duo in opposition to arguably the NFL’s finest edge-rushing tandem.
Jim Harbaugh’s emphasis on defending Justin Herbert has already paid off in Year 1. This 12 months, Chargers tackles mixed to generate an 87.7 PFF pass-blocking grade, the perfect within the NFL. Starters Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt mixed to surrender solely 9 sacks and 42 pressures on 1,149 pass-blocking snaps.
On the opposite aspect of the road of scrimmage will likely be a duo seeking to dominate the sport in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. The two led Houston’s edge rushers to rank second in pass-rush win price (29.6%), fifth in complete pressures generated (162) and sixth in PFF pass-rush grade (75.1).
Los Angeles’ capability to guard Herbert will likely be key in a recreation that includes two very sturdy defenses. If Hunter and Anderson can have an effect on Herbert, that would favor Houston — but when not, it could possibly be an extended day for the Texans.
Derrick Henry vs. Steelers’ heavy bins
Without Zay Flowers, the Ravens offense will seemingly look to lean on its run recreation in opposition to the Steelers. But when Pittsburgh might need to suppose twice about loading the field in opposition to Derrick Henry.
When these two bitter rivals final met in Week 16, Pittsburgh put eight or extra defenders within the field on 16 snaps, however Henry carried the ball 9 occasions for 42 yards, a 78.7 PFF dashing grade and two explosive runs. Granted, unhealthy tackling by the Steelers didn’t assist, but it surely’s clear that defensive coordinator Teryl Austin’s makes an attempt to load up in opposition to Henry weren’t efficient.
However, Henry carried out a lot worse in opposition to heavy bins of their first duel in Week 11, gaining solely 3 yards on six carries whereas securing a 64.5 PFF dashing grade. The indisputable fact that Henry even obtained to three yards is fairly unbelievable, contemplating that he gained 11 yards after contact.
Pittsburgh didn’t load the field usually in opposition to the Ravens, doing so 25.8% of the time in Week 16 and 31.5% in Week 11 — though these figures have been larger than the workforce’s season-long 21.9% heavy field price. If the Steelers put eight or extra defenders within the field, they’ll want to verify they will truly stuff Henry, or else they’re in for an extended night.
Highest-Graded Running Backs vs. 8-Plus Box Defenders (Min. 25 Snaps)
Josh Allen vs. Broncos’ Cover 3
It’s arduous to ask for far more as a soccer fan than an MVP candidate dealing with off in opposition to one of many league’s stingiest defenses. That’s precisely what we’ll be handled to when Allen takes on Denver to begin Sunday’s motion, with Cover 3 the main focus.
The Broncos have run Cover 3 25.1% of the time this 12 months, and it’s labored properly. On these seems to be, Denver is first in success price allowed, fifth in EPA allowed per play and first in yards per play allowed.
Meanwhile, Allen has been sturdy with three deep defenders. His 80.0 PFF passing grade ranks eighth amongst qualifying quarterbacks, though his 95.8 passer score is 16th. It’s additionally pertinent to say that Allen’s 92.3 PFF dashing grade in opposition to Cover 3 is the best within the NFL, no matter place.
Allen has a number of technique of defeating an elite Broncos protection, together with beating the blitz with fast throws and scrambling. If Denver desires to knock off one of many AFC’s finest groups, it should keep away from gap photographs and restrict Allen’s effectiveness in opposition to Cover 3.
Josh Jacobs on runs between the tackles vs. Eagles
Packers-Eagles is a extremely gratifying matchup for a number of causes, particularly watching Matt LaFleur try and navigate one of many NFL’s elite defenses. How properly Jacobs can get going between the A and B gaps will likely be extraordinarily telling.
Green Bay has utilized a various run recreation all 12 months, however LaFleur’s intentions of hitting opponents up the center and usually downhill have remained the main focus. That is sensible given Jacobs’ profile: his 90.5 PFF dashing grade on runs between the tackles is second amongst qualifiers. Jacobs can also be prime seven in yards after contact per try (3.5), explosive runs (21) and missed tackles compelled (35).
But the center of Philadelphia’s protection has been sturdy for a lot of the 12 months. Against these precise run varieties, the Eagles are sixth in EPA allowed per play, 15th in success price allowed, T-13th in yards allowed per carry and T-13th in first downs allowed. More particularly, Cooper DeJean is the NFL’s second-highest-graded run defender (91.6) in opposition to runs between the tackles, whereas Nakobe Dean (86.5) can also be prime 20.
When these groups performed all the best way again in Week 1, Jacobs ran the ball 9 occasions for 50 yards between the tackles, accumulating a 74.5 PFF dashing grade to associate with two first downs and an explosive run. Granted, that was seemingly a worse model of Philly’s protection, one which didn’t play DeJean on the time. Will Jacobs discover related success to assist offset the lack of Christian Watson, or will the Packers must attempt to beat a stingy Eagles protection via the air?
Baker Mayfield vs. Commanders’ Cover 1
Much of the highlight on this Week 1 rematch will likely be if Jayden Daniels performs higher in opposition to the Buccaneers and their common blitzes. But how properly Mayfield performs in opposition to a frequent Commanders protection may make a big impact.
Mayfield has loved one other sturdy season, rating seventh amongst qualifiers with an 82.4 PFF passing grade and tied for sixth with a 78.7% adjusted completion proportion. However, he’s had points in opposition to Cover 1, the place his 65.9 PFF passing grade slots 28th out of 45 qualifiers. Only 54.1% of Mayfield’s Cover 1 makes an attempt have been charted as correct (25th), whereas 22% have been catchable inaccurate (14th).
It might not bode nice that the Commanders have utilized Cover 1 on 20% of their snaps, their second-highest price of protection behind Cover 3. When commerce deadline pickup Marshon Lattimore was wholesome in Weeks 15-16, the frequency of Cover 1 stayed about the identical, however the protection was significantly better. In these two weeks, Washington recorded an 81.2 PFF protection grade when working Cover 1, with a kind of video games coming in opposition to the vaunted Eagles. Compare that to a season-long 59.2 PFF protection grade when deploying the person look.
On paper, Tampa Bay’s offense ought to have a significant benefit on this recreation in opposition to a Commanders protection that’s struggled for a lot of the 12 months. But if Quinn isolates Lattimore on Mike Evans — a real classic, hate-filled receiver-corner rivalry — then he may discover methods to decelerate Mayfield & Co.
Matthew Stafford beneath strain vs. Vikings
When the Rams pulled off a shocking upset over the Vikings in Week 8, Stafford was a major purpose why, and L.A. will want an encore to do it once more.
Even if not as elite because the 12 months earlier than, Stafford has been strong throughout his age-36 season, incomes a 72.4 PFF passing grade. Yet, a caveat is that the Super Bowl champion has been anemic beneath strain. Stafford’s 29.4 total and 29.6 PFF passing grades are the bottom within the league amongst qualifiers beneath strain. Meanwhile, when saved clear, Stafford is prime -six in each total (92.0) and passing (92.8) grades.
While the Vikings blitz greater than any protection within the league, their strain numbers haven’t been as unbelievable as anticipated. Minnesota sits 11th in workforce strain price, 17th in quarterback hurry proportion and 32nd in throwaway price. The solely beginning Vikings defensive lineman with an 11.0% pass-rush win price or higher is Jonathan Greenard (15.3%).
During their Thursday Night Football conflict, Stafford was pressured on solely 23.5% of makes an attempt, finishing 6-of-8 passes for 47 yards, one big-time throw, one turnover-worthy play and a 62.3 total PFF grade. If the Rams can defend Stafford that properly but once more, they will positively discover themselves able to win. But if Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel — who solely mustered one strain on 19 pass-rushing snaps earlier in opposition to the Rams — can wreak havoc, it is going to seemingly be powerful sledding for LA’s potent offense.