Over the years, PFF knowledge scientists have performed intensive research to higher perceive and predict participant efficiency. While many of those foundational works proceed to form discussions and affect evaluation, the main target right here is on figuring out how these insights apply to particular weekly matchups and uncovering alternatives the betting market might have ignored.
Some bets will align with conventional markets, whereas others will discover extra area of interest choices to make sure we leverage essentially the most appropriate markets for a given thesis or angle.
The Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line might neutralize the Chicago Bears’ Run Defense
The Colts face a tricky problem this week towards a Bears run protection that has been one of many NFL’s finest for the reason that begin of 2023, rating top-three in each EPA allowed per rush and dashing success price allowed.
The market appears to be anticipating a dip within the Colts’ dashing output, as Jonathan Taylor‘s present dashing prop is ready notably decrease than his first two weeks, regardless of him simply surpassing it final week.
However, not all matchups are created equal. In this strength-on-strength contest, the underlying knowledge means that the Colts’ blocking effectivity ought to permit them to beat Chicago’s stout run protection.
As PFF tracks each play on each snap, we will measure “good blocks,” the place no participant on the offensive line misses their project. A couple of years in the past, we recognized that completely blocked runs are among the many most useful performs in soccer. For groups just like the Colts, who excel on this space, good block charges are usually sustainable and are as near “matchup-proof” as you’ll discover within the NFL.
Not solely are the Colts producing a excessive good block price, however they’re additionally successful after contact, strengthening the case for his or her dashing assault.
Suggested bets: It will not be essentially the most thrilling angle, however in a strength-on-strength matchup, the underlying metrics favor the Colts. The market appears to mirror this, and I’ll be taking the over on Taylor’s dashing props and betting on sport scripts the place the Colts dominate on the bottom.
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Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud Picks Apart Minnesota Vikings‘ Zone Coverage and Blitz Packages
With Brian Flores on the helm, the Vikings have grow to be one of many NFL’s most blitz-heavy and zone-reliant defenses. After back-to-back robust performances, the market is beginning to purchase into the Vikings protection, as mirrored within the totals for his or her video games. However, these two areas — zone protection and the blitz — are exactly the place C.J. Stroud has excelled.
Against man protection, Stroud has been beneath common in effectivity. But when going through zone protection, he has been one of many NFL’s prime performers. Not solely is Stroud constant on a down-to-down foundation towards zone defenses, however he additionally ranks second in explosive play price, throwing an explosive cross almost 12% of the time when going through zone protection.
Stroud has additionally thrived towards the blitz, incomes the eighth-highest PFF grade in such conditions in comparison with thirteenth with out the blitz. His effectivity, measured by EPA, additionally improves towards blitz-heavy defenses. Additionally, Stroud has a larger tendency to ship explosive performs when blitzed, even after adjusting for the upper baseline explosive play price that blitzing naturally permits.
Suggested bets: Following a tricky outing on Sunday Night Football, I’m backing Stroud on this matchup, which I imagine is perceived to be harder than it actually is. Minnesota’s defensive tendencies play immediately into Stroud’s strengths, making this a chance for an enormous efficiency. I’ll be betting on Stroud’s passing overs, his alternate passing yards and the Texans’ staff totals.