Analytics strengths and weaknesses for the highest 2025 rookie quarterbacks

Analytics strengths and weaknesses for the highest 2025 rookie quarterbacks


  • Shedeur Sanders provides the perfect knowledge profile of the category: While Cameron Ward is the consensus first total decide, Sanders clears him in practically each analytical metric.
  • Jaxson Dart separates himself from the remainder of the quarterbacks on this class: Dart’s passing metrics supply strengths which can be few and much between with the remainder of this class.
  • 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and study 2025’s prime prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting to your favourite NFL workforce.

Estimated studying time: 9 minutes


The 2025 NFL Draft‘s quarterback class is polarizing regardless of one quarterback being the clear favourite to go first total. Even with that being the case, this class can’t essentially have their values copied and pasted into what previous rookie quarterbacks supplied for fantasy. That’s why diving into every quarterback’s manufacturing numbers from faculty and evaluating their analytical profiles ought to assist us kind these values as we head into the NFL draft.

  • Overall percentile rank references a pool of 122 previous quarterback prospects courting again to 2017. 
  • Strengths are thought-about manufacturing knowledge factors the place a selected quarterback scored the best compared to the prospect pool courting again to 2017.
  • Weaknesses are the areas the place a selected quarterback scored beneath the fiftieth percentile in that specific manufacturing class in comparison with the prospect pool since 2017.
  • This article will highlight the highest 5 quarterbacks on consensus massive boards.

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CAMERON WARD, MIAMI (FL)

Ward’s profession faculty analytics strengths:
MetricValueRank amongst QB prospects since 2017
Adjusted completion fee75.8%74th percentile
First-down-plus-touchdown dashing fee40.0%ninetieth percentile
Explosive run fee24.1%ninetieth percentile

Ward is about to be the primary total decide on this yr’s draft, although he isn’t essentially on the identical stage as first total decide quarterbacks in previous years. As a passer, Ward’s finest metric is his adjusted completion fee, however there isn’t a lot else. For essentially the most half, Ward’s biggest strengths come from his working capacity, which he doesn’t do at a excessive fee, averaging simply 4.7 makes an attempt per recreation. For context, Bo Nix – an above-average rusher – averaged 6.2 rush makes an attempt per recreation, so Ward isn’t the high-level dual-threat quarterback fantasy managers will hope for both.

Ward’s profession faculty analytics weaknesses:
MetricValueRank amongst TE prospects since 2017
Career PFF passing grade78.1thirty second percentile
Big-time-throw fee4.2%eleventh percentile
Turnover-worthy-play fee3.4%thirty ninth percentile
Sack fee6.2%thirtieth percentile
Accuracy on 20-plus ADoT throws30.9%twelfth percentile

As a passer, there are some pink flags in Ward’s knowledge, together with only a thirty second percentile passing grade for his profession whereas enjoying throughout three completely different groups in 5 seasons. This is mirrored in his very low big-time-throw fee, larger turnover-worthy-play fee, and lack of accuracy on deep passes. Even avoiding sacks, which tends to translate to the subsequent stage most of the time, is a major pink flag when he isn’t including all that a lot together with his legs both.

Since 2017, there have been 37 previous quarterback prospects with a profession passing grade beneath 80.0, and solely two have delivered fantasy-relevant manufacturing (5.4%). The two quarterbacks who overcame that low-end passing capacity popping out of faculty have been Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen – each of whom have been elite runners for the place and will overcome any shortcomings as passers early of their careers.

SHEDEUR SANDERS, COLORADO

Sanders’ profession faculty analytics strengths:
MetricValueRank amongst QB prospects since 2017
Career PFF passing grade91.892nd percentile
Turnover-worthy-play fee1.6%99th percentile
Adjusted completion fee80.0%99th percentile
Passing grade past the sticks96.3ninety fifth percentile
Accuracy on 20-plus ADoT throws47.5%ninetieth percentile

Sanders’ passing knowledge is considerably higher than Ward’s for his profession, together with elite marks in PFF passing grade and among the best turnover-worthy-play charges in recent times. Sanders’ 1.6% turnover-worthy-play fee is similar to Jayden Daniels’ popping out of faculty, and it was an space the place Daniels led the league final yr with the perfect mark as nicely. On prime of the encouraging passing numbers, Sanders’ knowledge, as a complete, must be considered as encouraging for a workforce keen to take a shot on him, and his probability to outperform Ward shouldn’t be missed.

Sanders’ profession faculty analytics weaknesses:
MetricValueRank amongst TE prospects since 2017
Big-time-throw fee4.6%twenty seventh percentile
First-down-plus-touchdown dashing fee27.9%twenty second percentile
Average time-to-throw2.89s18th percentile
Sack fee6.9%sixteenth percentile

Another space that compares equally to Jayden Daniels is the decrease big-time-throw fee as a consequence of a decrease profession common depth of goal (8.5). Sanders’ profession ADoT is barely decrease than Daniels (9.1 yards), and that’s led to each gamers missing in that big-play-throw territory. It wasn’t an space the place Daniels thrived within the NFL final season both, but he nonetheless had a rookie of the yr season. This isn’t meant to aggressively evaluate Sanders to Daniels as a result of Daniels was nonetheless the higher prospect, however to a lesser extent relative to this yr’s class, there are some similarities. Their sack charges have been practically similar as nicely, and their common time-to-throw was precisely the identical (2.89 seconds) popping out.

JAXSON DART, OLE MISS

Dart’s profession faculty analytics strengths:
MetricValueRank amongst QB prospects since 2017
Career PFF passing grade90.784th percentile
Turnover-worthy-play fee2.7%72nd percentile
Explosive run fee23.2%82nd percentile
Passing grade past the sticks93.882nd percentile

Dart has slowly crept up draft boards to the purpose the place he now has an actual probability to go within the first spherical, presently sitting because the thirty second total decide on consensus mock drafts. As a passer, Dart outshines Ward, although Dart’s offense at Ole Miss was considerably completely different from most faculty and NFL offenses. Over the previous two seasons, Dart’s Rebels ranked prime 5 within the Power-Five conferences in deep throw fee (20.9%), practically double the typical of NFL offenses (11.4%). On the plus facet, Dart’s capacity to restrict turnover-worthy performs regardless of the excessive fee of low proportion passes is an efficient signal, although he nonetheless makes for a troublesome NFL projection coming from an offense that’s removed from what we sometimes see from NFL passing offenses.

Dart’s profession faculty analytics weaknesses:
MetricValueRank amongst TE prospects since 2017
Accuracy on 20-plus ADoT throws33.8%thirty first percentile
First-down-plus-touchdown dashing fee32.4%forty sixth percentile

Considering the excessive fee of deep passes, Dart’s accuracy on such passes popping out as considered one of his lower-ranked classes is regarding. He, in fact, had extra makes an attempt than most, although that accuracy would, ideally, be nearer to common than beneath. It’s additionally extra motivation for him to tone down the deep makes an attempt on the subsequent stage, which will even simply occur naturally.

JALEN MILROE, ALABAMA

Milroe’s profession faculty analytics strengths:
MetricValueRank amongst QB prospects since 2017
Big-time-throw fee6.7%88th percentile
First-down-plus-touchdown dashing fee37.1%77th percentile
Explosive run fee24.6%92nd percentile
Yards after contact per rush try3.2482nd percentile

Milroe’s thrives as a runner, as nearly all of his prime marks are available dashing classes. Milroe averaged 8.7 rush makes an attempt per recreation, resulting in over 2,000 profession dashing yards and 33 dashing touchdowns for his profession. The one space the place Milroe did stand out as a passer was in his big-time throw fee, though that quantity dropped off considerably in 2024 after he hit the second-best big-time throw fee within the FBS in 2023 (9.1%). He dipped down to simply 5.2% in 2024, which was nearer to common for the place.

Milroe’s profession faculty analytics weaknesses:
MetricValueRank amongst TE prospects since 2017
Sack fee8.9%third percentile
Career PFF passing grade75.2seventeenth percentile
Turnover-worthy-play fee3.4%forty second percentile
Average time-to-throw3.172nd percentile
Adjusted completion fee72.2%thirty first percentile

Milroe’s tendency to take sacks can be a priority, coming in with one of many highest sack charges of current years that’s on par with previous non-first-round picks Sam Howell, Will Levis and Malik Willis. The bigger concern will come all the way down to poor total accuracy and turnover-worthy play fee whereas taking a really very long time to get the ball out of his palms. These are all vital pink flags that may want time to repair if he’s going to achieve success within the NFL.

WILL HOWARD, OHIO STATE

Howard’s profession faculty analytics strengths:
MetricValueRank amongst QB prospects since 2017
Sack fee3.7%87th percentile
Accuracy on 20-plus ADoT throws42.5%74th percentile

Howard is about to go Day 2, although he provides an identical lack of translatable strengths in his faculty manufacturing profile. The two areas that qualify as strengths are his capacity to keep away from sacks, which is effective on the subsequent stage. The different space is his accuracy on deep passes, though he ranks nearer to the underside of the category in precise deep makes an attempt (139) – solely 5 different quarterbacks (out of 19) are behind him in that regard. 

Howard’s profession faculty analytics weaknesses:
MetricValueRank amongst TE prospects since 2017
Career PFF passing grade76.3twenty second percentile
Big-time-throw fee4.7%thirty first percentile
Turnover-worthy-play fee4.0%thirteenth percentile
Passing grade with out play-action68.2thirteenth percentile

Low profession passing grades are a standard theme for this draft class and converse to why, as a complete, the 2025 quarterbacks aren’t touted as extremely as in previous years. Howard isn’t any exception, coming in nicely beneath common in profession passing grade. Howard additionally struggled to scale back turnover-worthy performs. Howard additionally had one of many larger drop-offs in passing grade with and with out play-action, rating top-five in profession passing grade with play-action (88.6) and bottom-five within the class with out it.