A possible edge for NFL defenses

• What entropy tells us about NFL defensive linemen: Edge defenders have a tendency to maneuver round greater than inside defenders, and several other edge rushers thrived in a task the place they moved throughout the road in 2024.

• The Steelers’ move rush was elite — and predictable: Despite posting the league’s high PFF pass-rushing grade in 2024, the Steelers ranked simply 14th in strain fee with low alignment entropy scores throughout the board, suggesting offenses have been capable of anticipate and counter their rush plans.

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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

The trench battle performs a vital function in deciding soccer video games, and the primary questions I typically begin with when breaking down a trench matchup are: Where is the workforce’s greatest defensive lineman lining up, and what does that particular person matchup seem like?

That’s simpler to foretell for some groups than others. 

Former PFF knowledge scientist Eric Eager wrote 5 years in the past about using Shannon entropy to quantify unpredictability in soccer. That examine checked out security alignment versatility, and an analogous strategy could be utilized to defensive linemen alignment to focus on which gamers moved up and down the road and which gamers had pretty static roles.

The defensive approach (designation of the place the defensive lineman lined up in relation to the offensive line, as seen within the diagram under) alone isn’t sufficient to search out that alignment versatility as a result of it doesn’t take the aspect of the road under consideration. For instance, a 3-technique can align over the skin shoulder of the appropriate guard or the left guard. 

To cope with that, I pulled the aspect of the road (L for left aspect of protection and proper aspect of offense, R for proper aspect of protection and left aspect of offense) from the PFF play place and mixed it with the approach to search out the entropy values of these alignment mixtures. 

We gained’t get into the weeds of the mathematics right here, however a better entropy worth correlates with a participant who traces up in lots of spots (defensive position approach and aspect of the road, on this case) with a comparatively even utilization cut up. A decrease entropy worth correlates with a participant who traces up in comparable alignments extra incessantly. 

Below are the highest 20 defensive linemen (with at the least 100 snaps performed) from the 2024 season in alignment versatility, per the Shannon entropy calculation. 

Defensive Linemen with Highest Alignment Versatility in 2024 | Min. 100 Snaps Played

The very first thing that jumps out is that this checklist consists primarily of edge defenders, which checks out. There is extra flexibility for various alignment widths/strategies on the sting, which naturally creates extra alternative for these gamers to widen out and condense down. Still, the sting rushers who do present up right here largely match the mildew of the kinds of gamers we count on: edge rushers who can kick inside situationally and play on either side of the road of scrimmage. 

That pure bias towards edge rushers who can transfer round and kick inside makes somebody like Sebastian Joseph-Day’s look at sixth on the checklist noteworthy. 

Joseph-Day performed a reasonably even cut up of snaps from 2i- (inside shade of guard) to 6-technique (head-up on tight finish) throughout either side of the road of scrimmage final season with the Tennessee Titans, serving as a precious piece to their run protection (77.7 PFF run-defense grade). 

It additionally shouldn’t come as a lot of a shock that three Minnesota Vikings edge rushers present up on the checklist — Pat Jones II (first), Andrew Van Ginkel (ninth) and Dallas Turner (fifteenth). Brian Flores’ protection has prioritized exhibiting completely different pre-snap seems to be on the line of scrimmage, and the alignment versatility doable with gamers like these three helps make that occur. Minnesota should change Jones heading into subsequent season after he signed with the Carolina Panthers in free company. 

Defensive Linemen with Lowest Alignment Versatility in 2024 | Min. 100 Snaps Played

As anticipated, the gamers with the bottom alignment versatility are inside defensive linemen, notably nostril tackles with a strict, well-defined function within the protection. We see a handful of gamers on this checklist (Khyiris Tonga, Roy Lopez and Jaquelin Roy) whose commonest alignment is as a 0-technique, lined up straight over the middle. 

The group’s solely two gamers whose commonest alignment comes outdoors of the B-gap (at the least shading the within shoulder of the deal with) are Cam Heyward and Javon Kinlaw. 

Heyward’s inclusion is noteworthy as a result of it speaks to a bigger pattern for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who had the bottom common entropy worth of any defensive position within the NFL final season. 

Heyward lined up between the within shoulder of the left guard (R2i) and a head-up alignment on the left deal with (R4) on 86% of his snaps. T.J. Watt’s snaps come virtually solely outdoors of the appropriate deal with, reverse Heyward, and Alex Highsmith’s snaps come virtually solely outdoors of the left deal with. 

Here is the place Pittsburgh’s high defensive linemen ranked in entropy out of 333 defensive linemen who performed sufficient snaps to qualify. 

Pittsburgh Steelers’ Defensive Linemen Entropy Ranks in 2024 | Out of 333 Qualifiers

Pittsburgh completed with the best workforce PFF pass-rushing grade within the NFL final season, however simply the 14th-highest strain fee.

We can interpret that in a couple of methods. It’s simple to make an argument {that a} core of Watt, Highsmith, Heyward and Benton (now including first-round rookie Derrick Harmon into the combo in 2025) offers Pittsburgh probably the most proficient defensive entrance within the NFL. 

But offenses have been capable of game-plan round that benefit, notably late within the 2024 season. It’s simpler to take a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber participant like Watt out of the sport when you understand the place he’s going to be on each snap. The numbers that present how typically groups chipped Watt again that up.

On the opposite finish of the spectrum, a number of edge rushers thrived in a task the place they did transfer throughout the defensive position. Will Anderson Jr., Jonathan Greenard, Yaya Diaby and Jared Verse all completed within the high 40 amongst defensive linemen in alignment entropy rating (out of 300-plus qualifiers) and within the high 15 at their place in PFF WAR.

This isn’t to say that it’s essential to continuously shuffle gamers round up entrance, however lately, we’ve got seen defenses extra typically transfer gamers reminiscent of Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett and Chris Jones to hunt matchups and provides them favorable one-on-ones. In a recreation the place you spend all week making an attempt to unearth the smallest of edges, it’s simpler to search out them when you understand the hand your opponent goes to play.