• Will the Eagles enhance their go safety in opposition to the Ravens? Philadelphia’s offensive line has been one of many worst in permitting stress on a per-snap foundation, however Baltimore hasn’t ramped up the warmth recurrently both.
• Can the Commanders get their run sport going in opposition to the Titans? Washington’s speeding assault has slowed throughout its shedding streak, and Tennessee has been stingy in opposition to runs.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and extra. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
While the result of each soccer sport is influenced by the 22 gamers on every workforce’s facet, inspecting the area of interest, micro-level battles provides an additional layer of nuance. That contains gamers or items battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 12’s focus on Josh Jacobs in opposition to the 49ers’ heavy packing containers (75.1 PFF speeding grade, 32 yards after contact and three touchdowns) and Lamar Jackson in opposition to the Chargers’ zone protection (77.8 PFF passing grade, 12-of-18 passing) performed giant roles in dictating which groups gained. Now, let’s flip the script to Week 13.
Whether power in opposition to power, weak point in opposition to weak point or just a person warfare of nice consequence, listed here are six matchups with a major likelihood of figuring out winners this week.
Eagles’ go safety vs. Ravens
The greatest sport in Week 13 pits two contenders in opposition to each other. The Eagles and Ravens boast two of the NFL’s greatest speeding assaults (and working backs), plus good front-four items, which makes this contest nearly a mirrored image pool. What may be most fascinating is watching two surprisingly below-average items go head-to-head.
The Eagles’ inside offensive line — with Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens and Mekhi Becton — hasn’t missed a lot of a beat with out future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce. The unit ranks sixth in PFF general grade, however go safety has been extra of a battle. Philadelphia’s inside ranks solely 15th in pass-blocking grade — and, by extension, the Eagles’ go safety numbers have been shockingly dangerous. The Eagles are useless final in stress fee and hurry proportion, to not point out 28th in sack fee.
On the opposite facet of the ball, that trio will face off in opposition to a scary defensive position pair in Travis Jones and Nnamdi Madubuike. As a unit, the Ravens’ inside defenders rank eighth in PFF general grade, however the bunch is barely 17th in PFF pass-rushing grade. Although Jones and Madubuike have mixed for 61 pressures, neither has recorded a pass-rush win fee increased than 11.3%. As a broader workforce, the Ravens haven’t been distinctive at producing stress, slotting 21st in stress and sack charges.
The catalyst for whoever wins this warfare within the trenches is Jalen Hurts’ play. The Eagles signal-caller has fared decently in avoiding sacks, being taken down on solely 20.3% of pressures — which feels low relative to how a lot he’s been below duress. But Hurts has not fared effectively below stress, as mirrored by his 46.4 PFF general grade — which ranks 31st out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks.
Will Jones, Madubuike and lately activated Michael Pierce break by means of the center of Philadelphia’s offensive line to throw Hurts off his spot? Or will Hurts have sufficient time to sit down within the pocket and doubtlessly assault the Ravens’ weaker secondary? Whoever emerges victorious in that micro-war will most likely get the sting in his high-stakes sport.
Chargers‘ defensive position vs. Falcons‘ offensive line
Chargers-Falcons will not be in primetime, nevertheless it does supply an intriguing take a look at two present playoff groups trying to get again on observe. Atlanta’s offense in opposition to Los Angeles’ vaunted protection ought to contain some high-level maneuvering, particularly alongside the road of scrimmage.
The Falcons boast the sixth-best offensive line in soccer by PFF general grade. Perusing the workforce’s starters provides a glimpse into why: Only one (Ryan Neuzil) has posted a sub-60.0 PFF general grade. Left sort out Jake Matthews (81.5 PFF pass-blocking grade) and proper guard Chris Lindstrom (91.5 PFF general grade) have performed on the sky-high stage we’re accustomed to.
But the Chargers’ defensive position has quietly been disruptive all 12 months. Los Angeles ranks seventh in PFF run-defense grade amongst its edge rushers and defensive linemen, plus 13th in pass-rush win fee. Khalil Mack (91.3 PFF run-defense grade, 31 pressures), Poona Ford (82.4 PFF general grade) and Tuli Tuipulotu (30 pressures) headline the group, whereas Joey Bosa remains to be a pressure to be reckoned with, even in a down 12 months. The Chargers even have depth in Teair Tart (69.2 PFF general grade), Morgan Fox and Bud Dupree — the latter two of whom have crossed the 20-pressure threshold.
Will Atlanta maintain as much as give Kirk Cousins time to throw and clear lanes for Bijan Robinson within the run sport? Or will the Chargers management the road of scrimmage, preserve factors off the board to assist their shorthanded offense and proper their latest defensive points? Whoever claims bragging rights in that division will most likely win the sport.
Kyler Murray holding onto the ball vs. Vikings
Cardinals-Vikings doesn’t supply fairly as a lot promise as it will have if Arizona have been nonetheless atop the NFC West, however this sport nonetheless doubles as a possible playoff preview. And who doesn’t wish to see Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ hovering offense tackle one of many NFL’s stingiest defenses?
Murray’s tendency this 12 months has been to carry onto the ball to scramble — and be a playmaker. His 2.87-second common time to throw is the 16th slowest amongst certified quarterbacks, though his splits on throwing below/over 2.5 seconds are comparatively even. That aligns with Murray’s play fashion: His 81.5 PFF general grade when holding the ball longer ranks ninth amongst qualifiers, in comparison with his 76.0 PFF general grade when getting the ball out in 2.5 seconds or much less, which ranks 17th.
Brian Flores’ protection has been fairly efficient in each conditions, however most likely extra so in opposition to fast passes. Minnesota ranks second in defensive EPA per play when quarterbacks maintain onto the ball for lower than 2.5 seconds whereas permitting the third-lowest opposing passer score (80.2). Those rankings bounce to eighth and 13th, respectively, when quarterbacks can occupy 2.5 or extra seconds.
The backside line is that if Murray can lengthen performs, it favors the Cardinals’ offense. But if Flores’ blitz packages can get dwelling and preserve Murray throughout the confines of the pocket, the size ought to tip towards the Vikings.
Steelers‘ red-zone offense vs. Bengals
Another compelling sport which may stream below the radar, Steelers-Bengals offers followers a glimpse on the AFC North chief — however a workforce clawing for its playoff lives. It feels as if each Pittsburgh and Cincinnati want a win in Week 13, and red-zone efficiency could drive that consequence.
Even in its dismal street exhibiting at Cleveland final Thursday, Pittsburgh moved the ball into enemy territory pretty effectively. Issues arose within the crimson zone, although — a standard chorus for a lot of this 12 months. The Steelers rank 26th in red-zone EPA per play, changing solely 44.7% of drives getting into the opposing 20-yard line into touchdowns — the fourth-worst fee in soccer. Dovetailing with that’s dangerous red-zone play from Russell Wilson, whose 53.8 PFF passing grade ranks 25th out of 35 certified quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ protection hasn’t performed effectively to restrict opposing offenses deep of their territory. Cincinnati ranks 31st in red-zone EPA per play allowed, allowing touchdowns on a whopping 75% of red-zone possessions — the worst determine within the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s offense might be able to exploit a Bengals protection that’s dissatisfied all 12 months, however will Wilson and firm punch the ball in or will Cincinnati lastly rectify a significant concern and forestall red-zone touchdowns? In a sport that appears like a toss-up, that small element will show vital.
Commanders‘ speeding assault vs. Titans
Few batted a watch on the Commanders enjoying the Cowboys at dwelling in Week 12 — till the unfathomable occurred. After struggling arguably the worst loss by any workforce all 12 months, Washington will get one other crack at rectifying its three-game shedding streak by taking over the 3-8 Titans. For as a lot because the Commanders ought to have the sting, they’ll should be cautious of a great run protection.
Washington’s speeding offense has served as one among its backbones all season. The Commanders rank fourth in speeding EPA per play, are tied for sixth in yards per play and rank 10th in success fee. Whether by way of quarterback Jayden Daniels’ scrambling or the backfield mixture of Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr., Kliff Kingsbury’s run sport has labored. However, these numbers have dwindled through the workforce’s latest slide, with Washington rating solely 14th in EPA per play and 20th in yards per carry.
On the opposite facet of the ball lurks a Titans protection that’s been strong all 12 months, particularly in opposition to the run. Tennessee slots fourth in opposing speeding EPA per play, plus third in success fee and fourth in workforce run-defense grade. An enormous part of Tennessee’s large street upset over the Texans was limiting Houston to solely 17 carries for 40 yards, together with averaging a lowly 1.24 yards after carry per try.
Will the Commanders produce like their early-season selves on offense, primarily on the bottom? Or will Brian Callahan’s workforce stay disciplined in opposition to the run and pressure Daniels into apparent passing conditions? If Washington desires to maintain its dream season alive, it’ll have to realign its run sport.
Jameis Winston when moved vs. Broncos
Monday evening’s battle between the Browns and Broncos doesn’t seem as scintillating as another video games this week (perhaps having six standalone video games does that), nevertheless it’s nonetheless important within the AFC playoff race. If Cleveland desires to upset one other present top-seven seed within the AFC, it might be able to financial institution on Jameis Winston’s playmaking.
Over the previous two weeks, Winston has recorded an NFL-best 91.8 PFF passing grade when he’s been moved within the pocket, going 8-of-11 for 199 passing yards, two big-time throws and 0 turnover-worthy performs. Even because the Steelers pressured Winston from the pocket in Week 12, he saved his eyes downfield and launched a number of hold-your-breath throws with excellent accuracy en path to huge positive factors.
Winston will face one other of the NFL’s premier defenses in Denver, which has typically carried out effectively when getting quarterbacks on the transfer. In these conditions, the Broncos rank 10th in PFF defensive grade and boast the seventh-best PFF pass-rushing grade. At the identical time, Denver holds the 16th-ranked protection grade when quarterbacks get knocked off their spot.
If Winston stays undaunted and continues discovering open receivers downfield, Cleveland might pull off one other stunning (and chaotic) upset. But if Denver’s protection stays sticky in opposition to previous pal Jerry Jeudy, it ought to keep its wild-card slot.