• Jared Goff could also be higher when blitzed: His 66.7 PFF passing grade when blitzed ranks 13th amongst certified quarterbacks — increased than his passing grade when not blitzed (54.1).
• Will the 49ers keep on with Cover 3 in opposition to the Chiefs? San Francisco has run the protection on 28.3% of defensive snaps, however to solely a 54.9 total grade — although Patrick Mahomes has struggled in opposition to it in 2024.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and extra. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes
While the end result of each soccer sport is — ultimately, form or type — influenced by the 22 gamers on every group’s aspect, what provides an additional layer of nuance is inspecting the area of interest, micro-level battles that may outline a end result. That consists of gamers or models battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Whether power in opposition to power, weak point in opposition to weak point or just a person battle of nice consequence, listed here are eight matchups with a big likelihood of figuring out winners in Week 7.
Lions‘ Jared Goff vs. Brian Flores’ stress packages
Despite being one of many NFL’s most stable quarterbacks, Goff has commonly faltered when pockets break down. That lack of profession success below duress hasn’t modified a lot in 2024: Among certified quarterbacks, Goff’s 45.3 PFF passing grade below stress ranks 21st.
But, there may very well be a silver lining. Even although his metrics below stress are subpar, Goff has perhaps been at his finest when blitzed. His 66.7 {FF passing grade when blitzed ranks 13th amongst certified quarterbacks — increased than his passing grade when not blitzed (54.1).
That may go away Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores in a little bit of a bind. Minnesota’s 178 performs with a blitz are the second most within the NFL, and its 52.4% move blitz charge is the best in soccer. Flores’ protection relies on strolling up positionless gamers, then rendering it a guessing sport as to who will blitz. That system has baffled virtually each opposing quarterback this yr, culminating in the perfect defensive EPA per play mark in soccer.
Goff fared nicely total in opposition to Flores when the 2 matched up final yr, notching passing grades of 73.4 or higher every time and committing just one turnover-worthy play on 72 makes an attempt. Indeed, Goff was surgical in opposition to the blitz, posting passing grades of 85.7 and 74.9 with further rushers arriving.
Will Flores need to proceed to make Goff uncomfortable — a minimum of theoretically? Can the Vikings’ protection maintain up in opposition to a potent Detroit offense if it doesn’t deliver warmth? This chess match might be one of the fascinating to comply with this week.
Bengals’ move rush vs. Browns’ offensive line
The battle for Ohio is again on in Week 7, but it surely definitely isn’t as glimmering as as soon as thought. The 2-4 Bengals and 1-5 Browns have each underachieved in 2024.
Cleveland’s total offense has been a trainwreck, sitting 31st in EPA per play. There are a slew of fingers to level, considered one of which is on the offensive line. The Browns’ unit ranks 30th in pass-blocking grade, with 4 starters already allowing 15-plus pressures.
On the flip aspect, Cincinnati’s protection hasn’t come near dwelling as much as the billing. Lou Anarumo’s bunch ranks 26th in EPA per play in opposition to, and a key Achilles’ heel has been its move rush. Even in fielding Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals’ entrance 4 ranks 28th in pass-rush win charge. As a group, Cincinnati’s 90 whole pressures generated rank 20th.
Will Deshaun Watson have sufficient time to enhance his nose-diving play, or will Hendrickson construct on a stable Week 6 exhibiting and wreak havoc? Whichever underwhelming unit prevails might definitely sway this divisional matchup.
Texans’ play motion sport vs. Packers’ protection
One of a number of treats that Week 7 presents is Texans-Packers, a showdown between groups vying for titles however who haven’t all the time performed the cleanest soccer this yr. Still, we must always see iron in opposition to iron when Houston has the ball — particularly on play-action passes.
Houston ranks fifth in EPA per play on play-action ideas, with Bobby Slowik establishing it as a staple of his offense. C.J. Stroud thrives on such calls, along with his 76.5 PFF passing grade good for seventh amongst all quarterbacks on play motion.
At the identical time, the Packers have defended play motion nicely. Green Bay’s group protection grade on such ideas sits 10th. In specific, linebackers Eric Wilson and Edgerrin Cooper have stayed disciplined on Robot methods: Both rank among the many high 11 linebackers in PFF protection grade on play motion (minimal 10 snaps).
Will Stroud be capable to weaponize Joe Mixon to focus on an open Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs or Dalton Schultz, or will Jeff Hafley and the Packers drive an adjustment from Slowik? If the Texans can’t depend on their play-action passing sport, the benefit might lean Green Bay.
Falcons’ Kirk Cousins vs. Seahawks’ beneath protection
Things could not have began quick in Atlanta, however they certain are rolling now, particularly offensively. Over the previous two weeks, the Falcons rank fifth in EPA per play, and Kirk Cousins has returned to the 2022-23 type we anticipated. Cousins sits fifth amongst quarterbacks in PFF passing grade since Week 4, throwing for a league-high 732 yards in that stretch with an 80% adjusted completion proportion.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ quick begin has taken a wayward flip, largely as a result of its resurgent protection being victimized by the potent Lions and 49ers. The excellent news, nevertheless, is that Seattle might need some extinguishers on the prepared in Week 7.
Cousins’ most focused route this yr is the hitch, however the Seahawks rank seventh as a group in protection grade on such shorter, beneath routes. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon‘s 81.8 PFF protection grade in opposition to that route sits 11th on the place. Likewise, Cousins has thrown to an out route as his second-most frequent goal alternative, however Seattle really boasts the perfect protection grade on outs.
Not having Tariq Woolen or Tre Brown — neither of whom practiced early within the week — would definitely throw a wrench in Seattle’s protection effectiveness in opposition to Cousins’ preferences, however the Seahawks should be capable to problem Cousins to beat the group elsewhere down the sector.
Buccaneers’ explosive passive offense vs. Ravens’ secondary
The first sport of Monday evening’s twin billing presents a enjoyable have a look at two of the higher quarterbacks within the NFL this yr, plus two groups vying for division crowns. While Tampa Bay’s potential to hem in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the bottom might be of utmost significance, what could in the end decide sport move is how nicely Baltimore’s protection can maintain up.
The Ravens rank 22nd in defensive EPA per play and 21st in group protection grade, numbers that characterize a disappointing begin for Zach Orr as Baltimore’s new defensive coordinator. The most alarming development is how a lot the unit has been gashed deep. The Ravens have allowed 46 explosive passing performs (15-plus yards) via six video games, essentially the most within the NFL. That weekly development has but to be bucked.
Meanwhile, that’s an space that Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers exploit commonly. Tampa’s 37 explosive passing performs are the fifth most within the NFL. Although the Bucs don’t move deep a ton — simply 5.8% of Mayfield’s makes an attempt have been focused 20-plus yards downfield — the group ranks second in whole yards after the catch. Chris Godwin leads all the NFL in yards after the catch, with 322 of his 510 yards coming as soon as the ball is in his palms.
Will Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens and Kyle Hamilton be capable to sort out Godwin on the primary strive, or will the Buccaneers victimize a protection that has commonly surrendered chunk yards via the air?
Patrick Mahomes vs. the 49ers’ Cover 3
Point clean, Chiefs-49ers needs to be one of the anticipated video games of the season. While neither group is enjoying in addition to it will like via six video games — with accidents a contributing issue — this matchup nonetheless pits a few of the sharpest minds and most expert particular person gamers in opposition to each other.
Maybe essentially the most intriguing facet of this showdown is how Mahomes and the Chiefs will attempt to reply the 49ers’ zone coverages. San Francisco has performed Cover 3 on 28.3% of its defensive snaps, with Cover 4 and Cover 1 additionally holding a 20% share of calls. However, the 49ers haven’t performed their most frequent look nicely: The group holds only a 54.9 PFF total grade out of Cover 3, which ranks 26th.
At the identical time, Mahomes hasn’t thrived with three defenders enjoying deep thirds this yr. His 55.6 PFF passing grade in opposition to Cover 3 ranks 30th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks. The two-time MVP has fared higher in opposition to Quarters and Cover 1, recording passing grades over 72.0.
Part of the problem for Mahomes might be an absence of succesful receivers to work behind linebackers or up seams, particularly after shedding Rashee Rice for the season to damage. Still, his three turnover-worthy performs in opposition to Cover 3 are the second most within the NFL.
Can Andy Reid assist higher scheme open receivers in opposition to the Cover 3-happy 49ers? How a lot will new defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen stick to 3 deep gamers as an alternative of blending and matching? That particular person cat-and-mouse sport might be very telling.
Jets’ defensive position vs. Steelers’ makeshift offensive line
It appeared a close to certainty that the Jets would keep their dominant stretch of defensive play in 2024. That’s been continued with New York sitting 10th in EPA per play, however not due to its once-vaunted defensive position.
The Jets’ entrance 4 is graded because the 22nd-ranked unit within the NFL, with its pass-rush win charge additionally sitting in 22nd. Only a single Jet — Will McDonald IV — has notched greater than 20 pressures, and just one — Quinnen Williams — possesses a PFF total grade above 65.0. Even then, 2024 has been a far cry for Williams, whose total grade has dropped almost 35 factors and whose pass-rush win charge has dipped by virtually 10 proportion factors.
However, New York may get a possibility to proper its wrongs on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers will presumably be with out rookie middle Zach Frazier, who ranks fourth in total grade on the place. That means Pittsburgh will begin three backups alongside its proper aspect: Ryan McCollum at middle, rookie Mason McCormick at proper guard and Broderick Jones at proper sort out. None of these gamers has recorded a PFF total grade above 65.0.
Can the Jets disrupt Russell Wilson in what needs to be his first begin of the yr, or will Pittsburgh — whose offensive line ranks 24th in PFF pass-blocking grade — fend off a proficient group with a ragtag bunch?
Raiders’ lackluster passing offense vs. Rams’ move protection
There isn’t a lot hype surrounding Raiders-Rams, with neither group showing poised to compete for the postseason this yr. But this matchup will nonetheless point out so much about trajectory — each in 2024 and transferring ahead.
If the Raiders need to salvage a dismal begin below Antonio Pierce, they’ll want their passing offense to make main strides, albeit sans Davante Adams. Las Vegas’ offense ranks 22nd or worse in PFF group passing grade, passing yards per try and EPA per passing try. Neither Gardner Minshew nor Aidan O’Connell has secured a PFF passing grade above 65.0, and the one Vegas pass-catchers with above-average receiving grades are Brock Bowers (83.8) and Jakobi Meyers (71.7).
The e-book on the Rams has been accidents for a lot of the yr, however the group’s protection has been a colossal disappointment after shedding Raheem Morris. Los Angeles ranks final in group EPA per play, 29th in profitable play proportion and 28th in scoring drive allowed. Much of that stems from holding a 44.8 PFF protection grade, which ranks 31st.
If the Raiders can defend O’Connell in opposition to rookie standout Jared Verse, Bowers could proceed to wreak havoc over the center of the sector. Yet, that is about as near a get-right sport as Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula might ask for, particularly with Las Vegas possible with out Jakobi Meyers one other week — primarily counting on Bowers, Tre Tucker, D.J. Turner and Alex Bachman at receiver or tight finish.