• Can the Bengals make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable? Hurts’ 30.8 PFF passing grade underneath stress sits 36th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks, however the Bengals’ move rush has been disappointing all 12 months.
• Will the Cowboys bend or break within the purple zone? San Francisco ranks 26th in red-zone EPA per play, however Dallas has allowed 70% of red-zone drives to finish in a landing.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
While the result of each soccer recreation is — indirectly, form or kind — influenced by the 22 gamers on every workforce’s facet, what provides an additional layer of nuance is analyzing the area of interest, micro-level battles that may outline a consequence. That consists of gamers or models battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Whether energy towards energy, weak spot towards weak spot or just a person conflict of nice consequence, listed below are eight matchups with a major likelihood of figuring out winners in Week 8.
Jalen Hurts vs. the Bengals’ move rush
This early-window matchup pits two playoff hopefuls in very related circumstances towards each other: receiving corps which might be almost unstoppable with shaky defenses. The defining issue might very effectively be quarterback play — and meaning the Eagles might want to get a greater model of Jalen Hurts.
Hurts has struggled in 2024, rating 32nd in PFF passing grade amongst certified quarterbacks. In specific, he’s been very subpar when underneath stress. Hurts’ 30.8 PFF passing grade underneath stress sits 36th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. The disparity between Hurts’ play underneath stress and when saved clear is gigantic, as evidenced by his 82.8 PFF passing grade when not coping with rushers.
Meanwhile, one of many Bengals’ basic issues this 12 months is the move rush. Star Trey Hendrickson has heated up over the previous two weeks, recording 13 pressures and 4 sacks, however the unit continues to be performing under expectations. Cincinnati ranks 17th in whole pressures generated and 22nd in stress proportion.
If Lou Anarumo’s protection can generate ample stress from secondary choices like B.J. Hill and Sam Hubbard, then Hurts might be susceptible to creating a mistake. Even then, the Bengals have to key on Hurts’ scrambling — his 83.9 dashing grade underneath stress ranks sixth amongst quarterbacks.
Buccaneers’ display recreation vs. Falcons’ display protection
This rematch of a high-strung divisional matchup from three weeks in the past gained’t essentially have the identical firepower, primarily from a Tampa Bay standpoint. The Buccaneers might be with out Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, which suggests the workforce might alter its pass-centric method. That would possibly truly work out: Tampa Bay ranks first in display EPA per play and is averaging 7.4 yards on such performs.
Atlanta’s protection has been gashed by means of the air this 12 months, sitting 25th in passing EPA per play. But its display protection has truly been very sound, rating seventh in that division.
Given the receiving prowess of Sean Tucker and Rachaad White — who each have notched PFF receiving grades of no less than 73.8 — Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen might very effectively lean on his operating backs by means of the air. Tampa Bay might should hope that passing technique works effectively sufficient towards a protection that’s ready to deal with it.
Josh Allen vs. the Seahawks’ secondary
Allen has largely been as spectacular as ever in 2024, sitting eighth amongst quarterbacks in PFF general grade. But as has change into inextricable for Allen, he’s vulnerable to placing the ball in hurt’s means. His 10 turnover-worthy performs are tied for the fifth most within the NFL, whereas his 4.3% turnover-worthy play price is tied for 10th. That price could be Allen’s highest since 2019.
Allen’s proclivity to make errors might spell bother towards a stingy Seahawks protection. Seattle ranks 12th in contested-target proportion and 13th in workforce PFF protection grade. The unit made Kirk Cousins pay twice in Atlanta final week, and that was with out Tariq Woolen. Julian Love, Woolen, Tyrel Dodson and even edge rusher Derick Hall have all posted protection grades of 74.4 or higher.
Somehow, although, the Seahawks have hauled in solely 4 interceptions, which is tied for 21st amongst defenses. In different phrases, enjoying sturdy protection hasn’t resulted in as many takeaways as one would count on.
If Allen makes a mistake, don’t count on Seattle to drop it: The Seahawks have solely dropped one interceptable move all 12 months. But if the celebrity performs clear soccer, Seattle might not have the identical manufactured alternatives at snatching the ball.
49ers’ purple zone offense vs. Cowboys’ purple zone protection
Sunday Night Football’s conflict places two of the anticipated NFC title contenders head-to-head. In actuality, the competition may be to salvage playoff hopes, as a result of each San Francisco and Dallas haven’t performed as anticipated this 12 months, with accidents on the forefront.
With or with out the total secure of expertise, Kyle Shanahan’s workforce merely has not been efficient within the purple zone. San Francisco ranks 26th in red-zone EPA per play, with solely 45.2% of drives ending in touchdowns (27th). The 49ers lead the NFL in red-zone performs, however truly ending contained in the 20 has been arduous.
Dallas’ protection is considerably of a direct juxtaposition. The Cowboys have been arguably the worst red-zone protection within the NFL, sitting 32nd in red-zone EPA per play and 29th in red-zone landing proportion, with opposing offenses changing 70% of probabilities into six factors. Crucially, although, Dallas has permitted solely 52 red-zone performs — tied for the fourth fewest in soccer.
Can the 49ers get to the purple zone towards a protection that stops performs from shut vary? And, as soon as there, will San Francisco truly break the aircraft? That recreation inside the matchup will play a paramount function in deciding the victor in primetime.
Bears’ deep passing vs. the Commanders’ secondary
On the floor, the Bears’ offense towards the Commanders’ protection seems a little bit of a mismatch, particularly with the way in which that Caleb Williams has developed over his previous few video games. However, taking a deeper dive into a few of Williams’ play might truly grant Washington a bonus.
Deep-ball passing has not been Williams’ forte. The No. 1 general decide is the lowest-graded passer on makes an attempt 20 or extra yards downfield, recording only a 29.7 PFF passing grade and changing 6-of-27 makes an attempt. Williams’ 5 turnover-worthy performs on deep balls are tied for probably the most within the NFL.
Although the Commanders’ protection has been maligned for a lot of the season — rating 26th in EPA per play — Dan Quinn’s unit has neutralized deep makes an attempt quite effectively. Washington ranks eighth in workforce PFF protection grade on deep passing makes an attempt, plus ninth as a whole protection in EPA allowed per play on such passes. In specific, cornerback Benjamin St.-Juste has been lockdown when examined down the sphere: His 90.7 protection grade on deep balls ranks fourth amongst qualifying cornerbacks.
If Williams assaults the brief and intermediate ranges, it might show a making an attempt afternoon for Washington’s protection to maintain up. But if the rookie desires to check a go ball to Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore or Rome Odunze, then the Commanders might have the proper response.
Chargers’ run recreation vs. Saints’ run protection
Saints-Chargers is a battle of two groups trying to stabilize their 2024 seasons earlier than they begin to capsize. Whichever facet can keep away from falling off the sting of rivalry might come right down to when the Chargers have the ball.
Los Angeles’ offense hasn’t been very prolific in Jim Harbaugh’s first 12 months. The unit sits simply 21st in EPA per play and is tied for 30th in factors scored. A big proportion of the shortage of offensive effectivity could be chalked as much as not operating the ball effectively sufficient — which is what Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman hoped to lean on. The Chargers sit 31st in workforce PFF dashing grade and are tied for 25th in explosive rushes (17), and neither J.Ok. Dobbins nor Gus Edwards has notched a PFF dashing grade above 65.2.
On the opposite finish of the equation sit the Saints, whose defensive bedrock has utterly caved in over the previous 5 weeks. Altogether, New Orleans has been victimized on the bottom. The Saints rank 31st in workforce PFF run-defense grade and rank 26th in explosive performs dashing allowed. Only two defenders with 50-plus run protection snaps — Alontae Taylor and Jordan Howden — have posted run-defense grades above 65.0, as play from Carl Granderson and Demario Davis has slipped.
This micro-matchup successfully pits weak spot towards weak spot. Can the Chargers set up their offensive basis with good blocks and damaged tackles, or will the Saints lastly stop large runs from holding their protection on the sphere?