• Can the Bears cease Kyler Murray within the fourth quarter? The star ranks ninth amongst all offensive gamers in fourth-quarter PFF grade (82.3), however Chicago’s protection has been the NFL’s finest within the last interval.
• Will the Colts run inside zone effectively in Minnesota? Indianapolis’ inside-zone price is the second highest in soccer, and the Vikings have struggled to cease the idea.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and extra. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
While the result of each soccer recreation is — in a roundabout way, form or kind — influenced by the 22 gamers on every crew’s aspect, what provides an additional layer of nuance is analyzing the area of interest, micro-level battles that may outline a outcome. That contains gamers or models battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 8’s focus on Jalen Hurts in opposition to the Bengals’ strain (solely below duress on 13.6% of snaps) and the Bears’ deep passing (Caleb Williams accomplished 1-of-5 deep makes an attempt) performed vital roles in figuring out recreation outcomes. Now, let’s flip the web page to Week 9.
Whether energy in opposition to energy, weak point in opposition to weak point or just a person struggle of nice consequence, listed below are eight matchups with a major likelihood of figuring out winners this week.
Kyler Murray’s fourth-quarter magic vs. the Bears
At 4-4, the Cardinals have been one of many extra tenacious and, frankly, fulfilling groups to observe this yr. Facing a deficit within the fourth quarter hasn’t been a difficulty, with Arizona erasing holes in opposition to the 49ers, Chargers and Dolphins to grab victories from the jaws of defeat.
That’s largely fueled by Kyler Murray, who’s been spectacular within the last interval. Murray’s 78.5 PFF passing grade within the fourth quarter ranks fifth amongst qualifying quarterbacks, and he sports activities a 7.2% big-time throw price, which sits third. The star ranks ninth amongst all offensive gamers in fourth-quarter PFF grading (82.3).
At the identical time, the Bears might lastly buck that development. Chicago boasts the perfect fourth-quarter protection within the NFL by EPA per play and profitable play proportion. Yes, the Bears misplaced in cataclysmic style on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary in Week 8, however that kind of efficiency may be very a lot an aberration.
If the Bears can hem in Murray and firm within the recreation’s last levels, Chicago might have the benefit in what figures to be an air-tight battle between two playoff hopefuls.
Broncos’ passing offense vs. Ravens’ secondary
The Ravens suffered one of many extra unbelievable losses of your entire season by falling to the lowly Browns — led by Jameis Winston — in Week 8. The main pitfall for Baltimore was its secondary, which permitted Winston to document 334 passing yards, three touchdowns and a 74.9 PFF passing grade. Winston accomplished 3-of-5 deep makes an attempt, securing a 77.1 passing grade and two touchdowns.
Deep passing has been Baltimore’s Achilles’ heel all yr. The Ravens have confronted the second-most deep makes an attempt (49) in 2024 and have allowed probably the most explosive passes — 13 greater than some other crew.
The dilemma for the Broncos in Week 9 is that explosive passing shouldn’t be a energy. They have generated solely 37 explosive passes this yr, sitting 24th in explosive cross proportion (11.4%). Rookie Bo Nix has truly been spectacular on deep passes, rating eighth with a 90.1 PFF passing grade, however solely 33.4% of his passes have gone for 10 or extra yards.
Teams appear to have their manner with Baltimore if they will restrict the Ravens’ unstoppable speeding assault in addition to decide aside the secondary. The Broncos might be able to mitigate Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the bottom, however the latter might show the determinant on this one.
Justin Herbert’s intermediate passing vs. Browns’ intermediate protection
Justin Herbert has been exceptional over the previous few weeks, main the NFL with a 90.9 PFF passing grade since Week 6. Part of his season-long success stems from thriving within the intermediate (10-to-19-yard) vary. Herbert’s 91.7 passing grade on intermediate throws sits fourth amongst quarterbacks with 200 or extra dropbacks, with the star tossing six big-time throws in comparison with making just one turnover-worthy play.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Browns’ protection, however the crew has achieved effectively to neutralize intermediate throws. Cleveland’s 53.8 crew protection grade on intermediate makes an attempt is the third finest within the NFL. Cornerback Denzel Ward has been particularly stingy in that vary, along with his 91.0 protection grade rating fourth within the NFL.
If Herbert can discover his rhythm with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston within the intermediate a part of the sector, then the Chargers might be able to transfer the ball. But if not, the Browns might pull off a second straight upset.
Jayden Daniels’ play-action passing vs. Giants
There don’t look like some ways to include the Commanders — simply ask the Bears, who did nearly as good a job as anybody all yr however nonetheless misplaced due to a Hail Mary. Washington nonetheless leads the NFL in EPA per play, and a significant anchor has been its play-action recreation. Daniels’ 93.7 PFF total grade is the second highest of any quarterback on play motion, the place the rookie has accomplished 73.3% of his passes and averaged 9.3 yards per try.
The Giants may have a tall activity in Week 9, however the crew might be able to depend on its play-action protection. New York sits eighth in EPA per play in opposition to play motion, permitting solely 10 explosive passing performs all yr (tied for fifth fewest).
When these two groups squared off in Week 2, Daniels accomplished all eight of his play-action makes an attempt for 63 yards however was held with no big-time throw, recording only a 60.0 PFF passing grade. If the Giants’ protection can stand tall in opposition to play fakes, they could have a preventing shot in Week 9.
PFF Passing Grade Leaders on Play Action
Jared Goff vs. Packers’ stunts
The first version of Lions-Packers in 2024 pits two of the perfect groups within the NFL in opposition to each other with divisional standings at stake. Both groups are fairly good in a number of departments — and possess arguably two of the perfect offensive minds in soccer — however the Packers might differentiate themselves primarily based on their defensive construction.
In his first yr as Green Bay’s defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley has made stunts a staple. The Packers rank third in performs with a stunt and have allowed the ninth-lowest passer score in soccer when including strain with twists or misdirection. Altogether, Green Bay’s protection ranks fourth in EPA per play when using a stunt.
On the opposite finish of the road of scrimmage, Jared Goff hasn’t been marvelous when his offensive line has navigated rushers from completely different angles. Goff’s 59.4 PFF passing grade in opposition to stunts ranks 19th amongst qualifying quarterbacks, together with a 5.7% turnover-worthy play price (11th highest).
Every NFC North intra-divisional contest appears like a real struggle, and the Lions attained early solutions by dealing with the blitzes of Brian Flores and the Vikings. If Goff can fare successfully sufficient in opposition to Hafley’s stunt appears to be like, the Lions might roar to 7-1 and stake their declare for first place.
Colts’ inside-zone operating recreation vs. Vikings’ protection
The overarching storyline of this Sunday Night Football showdown would be the Colts transferring from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco below heart. Although Flacco’s efficiency in opposition to Flores’ stout protection will show huge, so too will the Colts’ operating recreation.
Indianapolis runs inside zone on 41% of its makes an attempt, the second-highest price in soccer. At the identical time, the Colts common solely 3.0 yards per play on inside zone (28th) and have a 28.8% success price, which ranks 20th. Of the 13 gamers with 25 or extra inside-zone carries, star Jonathan Taylor’s 56.0 PFF speeding grade ranks 12th.
However, the Vikings haven’t carried out successfully in opposition to that look. Minnesota permits 5.3 yards per keep it up inside zone runs (30th) with a 34.4% success price (19th).
If Indianapolis can set up its inside-zone run recreation behind a dominant offensive line, it might open up comfy play-action appears to be like for Flacco. If not, although, the Vikings might be able to drive apparent passing downs, pin their ears again and keep on with their tried-and-true strain scheme.