• What does Aaron Glenn have in retailer for Jayden Daniels? The Lions’ defensive coordinator altered his protection patterns in Week 18, and he may use extra Cover 2 this week.
• Pay consideration to Josh Allen‘s play-action passing: Allen earned a top-10 PFF passing grade on the idea, however Baltimore was one of many NFL’s finest defenses in opposition to it late within the season.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and find out about 2025’s high prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting on your favourite NFL group.
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
While the end result of each soccer recreation is influenced by the 22 gamers on every group’s aspect, the area of interest, micro-level battles add an additional layer of nuance. That contains gamers or models battling head-to-head or defensive coaches attempting to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Last week’s focus on Matthew Stafford underneath stress (68.1 PFF passing grade, 75% adjusted completion share) and Derrick Henry in opposition to loaded packing containers (17 carries, 83 yards, 74.7 PFF speeding grade) helped swing the outcomes of wild-card weekend. With the stage solely magnified through the divisional spherical, coordinators must convey the shrewdest of methods to the desk.
Whether power in opposition to power, weak spot in opposition to weak spot or just a person struggle of nice consequence, right here is one matchup to pay shut consideration to in all 4 divisional-round battles.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Houston Texans‘ blitzes
The Texans pulled off a slightly shockingly dominant win over the Chargers within the wild-card spherical, fueled by an incredible day for the group’s protection. What significantly labored for DeMeco Ryans was a excessive blitz price in opposition to Justin Herbert, and the identical system might be the group’s finest shot at successful in Arrowhead Stadium.
Houston blitzed Herbert on 37.8% of passing snaps, the protection’s third-highest price of the 12 months. With further rushers in his face, Herbert went simply 5-of-11 for 70 yards and a 71.0 PFF passing grade. Granted, Herbert was really worse when not blitzed (52.6 PFF passing grade), however Houston’s stress and strategic stunts definitely impacted his rhythm and timing.
All 12 months lengthy, Mahomes hasn’t been distinctive when dealing with 5 or extra rushers. His 70.3 PFF passing grade in opposition to the blitz ranks 18th out of 26 qualifying starters, though his 88.8 PFF speeding grade ranks third.
When these groups squared off in Week 16, Houston blitzed Mahomes 30.4% of the time and the three-time Super Bowl champ secured a mediocre 65.4 PFF passing grade and a 46.2% adjusted completion share in opposition to the appears to be like.
If the Texans handle to tug off the upset, it’ll probably be due to their upstart protection standing tall but once more — and augmenting that blitz price in opposition to a makeshift offensive line might be probably the most prudent methodology of doing so.
Patrick Mahomes’ Blitzed/Not Blitzed Splits in 2024
Jayden Daniels vs. Lions’ Cover-2 appears to be like
Daniels’ efficiency in opposition to a premier defensive thoughts in Aaron Glenn is among the many high storylines of the Commanders-Lions duel. As Glenn did in opposition to Sam Darnold in Week 18, this matchup may very effectively incorporate the Lions switching up their tendencies to have an effect on Daniels.
Detroit has primarily operated out of Cover 1 and Cover 3, using the appears to be like on 52.9% of snaps. Meanwhile, their Cover-2 price is simply 12.3%. The incontrovertible fact that the Lions’ 66.0 group PFF protection grade from Cover 2 is decrease than the prior two ideas helps clarify why Glenn hasn’t carried out it as a lot.
However, among the many three choices mentioned above, Daniels has by far been at his worst when going through Cover 2. His 58.9 PFF passing grade in opposition to these appears to be like ranks 32nd out of 43 certified quarterbacks, and his 5.0% turnover-worthy play price locations 12th highest. Meanwhile, Daniels owns an 82.4 PFF passing grade in opposition to Cover 3 and a 68.0 PFF passing grade in opposition to Cover 1.
Two weeks in the past, Glenn displayed his acumen and suppleness by turning to Cover 0 on 23.1% of Detroit’s defensive performs in opposition to the Vikings — significantly greater than the Lions’ 5.8% season-long price. In a recreation the place Detroit’s protection might want to stop Washington’s environment friendly offense from protecting tempo, to what extent Glenn adjusts the dial to Cover 2 will probably decide how effectively the Lions can flummox Daniels.
Saquon Barkley after contact vs. Rams
The final time the Eagles and Rams battled, Barkley placed on a present with 255 yards and an 84.6 PFF speeding grade. If the Rams need a greater end result this time round, they’ll must residence in on tackling Barkley as early as attainable.
Much of Barkley’s success in that Week 12 contest was due to his Herculean play after contact. The All-Pro runner averaged a ridiculous 6.0 yards after contact per carry — nonetheless probably the most by any participant with 20-plus carries in a recreation this 12 months. Altogether, the Rams have been answerable for a mean of 4.1 yards after contact surrendered per carry in that Sunday Night Football conflict, their second-worst single-game mark of the season.
But Chris Shula’s protection has improved immensely in stopping speeding yards after contact because the season has endured. Since Week 8, the Rams have yielded the third-fewest speeding yards after contact (2.6) regardless of enjoying in opposition to Kenneth Walker III and James Cook. However, Los Angeles nonetheless ranks 18th in speeding EPA per play and 13th in success price in that span, that means not all run-defense holes have been patched.
The finest shot the Rams have at pulling off the upset is by limiting Philadelphia’s dynamic run recreation and forcing Jalen Hurts into apparent passing conditions, significantly getting stress on the quarterback. The essential first step in carrying out that’s to decelerate Barkley, which is far simpler mentioned than finished.
Most Yards After Contact in 2024 Among Running Backs
Josh Allen’s play-action passing vs. Ravens
Allen and Lamar Jackson — top-of-the-line particular person face-offs of your complete postseason. While Jackson’s postseason scrutiny stays excessive, Allen might want to play higher in opposition to a markedly improved protection since these groups met in Week 4.
Play motion has been one in every of Allen’s signature weapons this 12 months. The MVP candidate ranks seventh amongst qualifiers with a 91.9 PFF total grade on the idea, and his 89.6 PFF speeding grade is the second-best mark amongst quarterbacks. In flip, the Bills rank seventh in EPA per play and fourth in success price on play motion.
But the Ravens have stifled play motion, particularly within the second half of the season. Since Week 10, Baltimore sits second in success price and EPA per play in opposition to play motion, having given up the fewest yards per play (5.7) on faux handoffs.
During the primary bout between these powerhouses, Allen performed subpar soccer on play motion, finishing 3-of-6 passes for 9 yards, zero big-time throws and two turnover-worthy performs. The quarterback’s ineffectiveness, paired with a monster speeding recreation from Baltimore, enabled a landslide Ravens victory. If the Bills need to escape a second loss to the Ravens this 12 months, Allen and the group’s play-action cross recreation should be productive.