- Tampa Bay is a rightful favourite, however regression is probably going: Baker Mayfield’s 2024 success was closely pushed by a screen-heavy offense that masked his long-standing struggles beneath stress — a development that will not proceed with out Liam Coen.
- Carolina’s outlook hinges on Bryce Young’s subsequent step: While Young improved dramatically after his benching, ending with the seventh-best PFF grade within the second half, he nonetheless ranked simply nineteenth in EPA per play and should proceed to progress for the Panthers to contend.
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Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
Now that the draft is behind us and rosters are largely set, it’s a good time to shift focus to futures markets searching for betting worth. In the previous, tying up cash for months got here with a possibility price. But with the rise of latest platforms, together with these providing curiosity, betting early on futures is usually a extra worthwhile funding than ever.
We’ll go division by division, highlighting the bets we discover most useful. While not each crew will get a full breakdown, we’ll contact on every one as we work via the board.
To set the inspiration for our evaluation, we’ll have a look at crew fundamentals from final season, utilizing PFF’s personal Timo Riske’s chart on crew efficiency as a baseline.
The NFC South is an intriguing division, however there’s a transparent pecking order heading into 2025.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers clearly established themselves as the category of the NFC South final season and enter 2025 because the rightful favorites to win the division. The Atlanta Falcons underwhelmed in Kirk Cousins‘ first yr however will now flip the web page to Michael Penix Jr., retaining a roster that also performed to a .500 stage. The Carolina Panthers had a story of two seasons — the protection struggled from begin to end, however the offense confirmed indicators of life as Bryce Young rebounded following his midseason benching. And then there may be the New Orleans Saints, who have been merely poor in 2024 and challenge poorly heading into this yr, making them the justifiable lengthy pictures within the division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Central query: Can quarterback Baker Mayfield replicate his 2024 success?
Fresh off a second straight NFC South title, Baker Mayfield enters 2025 studying his third offensive system in as a few years. That context is vital when evaluating his current manufacturing and setting expectations for the upcoming season.
Mayfield almost doubled each his EPA per play and PFF grade from 2023 to 2024, a bounce that exhibits up throughout just about each significant class. And one of the crucial notable schematic shifts was how display passes factored into the offense. In 2023, Mayfield ranked seventh-lowest amongst quarterbacks in display price. By 2024, that quantity jumped to the fourth-highest at 15%.
Not solely have been screens extra frequent, however they have been additionally extremely efficient. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff generated extra EPA per play on screens final season. In complete, Tampa Bay’s display sport added almost 28 anticipated factors, the second-highest mark by any quarterback prior to now 4 seasons, trailing solely Patrick Mahomes in 2021.