- Don’t guess blindly on the Chiefs: Given QB Patrick Mahomes’ observe document and the Chiefs’ offensive pedigree, the expectation stays that this unit will proceed to be one of many league’s finest. However, that doesn’t imply there aren’t causes to observe intently.
- The Raiders supply worth: The Raiders will not be a playoff contender, however with one of many lowest win totals on the board, a steady quarterback and a satisfactory protection, this staff has a practical probability to surpass expectations and exceed their projected win whole.
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Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes
Now that the draft is behind us and rosters are principally set, it’s a good time to shift focus to futures markets seeking betting worth. In the previous, tying up cash for months got here with a chance value. However, with the emergence of latest platforms, together with these providing curiosity, betting early on futures generally is a extra profitable funding than ever.
We’ll go division by division, highlighting essentially the most worthwhile bets. While not each staff will get a full breakdown, we’ll contact on every as we work via the board.
To set the muse for our evaluation, we’ll have a look at staff fundamentals from final season, utilizing PFF’s personal Timo Riske’s chart on staff efficiency as a baseline.
The Chiefs as soon as once more reached the Super Bowl, however from a fundamentals perspective, the offense took a transparent step again. Rather than touchdown among the many league’s elite, Kansas City’s offense fell into the “good, not nice” cluster — a far cry from the dominant items of the early Mahomes period. Of course, this is only one information level, however by almost each metric, this offense was stable reasonably than spectacular.
The Chargers returned to the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season, however questions stay round their secondary weapons and whether or not the protection can maintain its 2024 efficiency. Still, with Justin Herbert below heart, this staff ought to stay squarely within the playoff combine.
The Broncos featured a dominant protection final 12 months and doubled down on that energy by including former 49ers Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw, together with first-round cornerback Jahdae Barron. Whether they will transfer from fringe playoff contender to authentic menace will doubtless depend upon rookie quarterback Bo Nix’s growth.
Meanwhile, the Raiders selected to not rebuild. Instead, they revamped their offense by buying and selling for quarterback Geno Smith and drafting operating again Ashton Jeanty. Combined with a protection that was surprisingly common final 12 months, Las Vegas has the items to be aggressive if the offense can take a step ahead.
Kansas City Chiefs
Central query: Patrick Mahomes’ sack fee spiked final season, however was that an outlier or an indication of a brand new norm?
When evaluating the Chiefs, it’s essential to acknowledge from the outset that they’re an outlier — a staff that persistently bucks league-wide developments. While it’s not sometimes sound statistical observe to dismiss sure information as irrelevant, Patrick Mahomes has repeatedly elevated his stage of play to no matter is critical to win, each on a micro and macro stage.
Interestingly, the Chiefs’ offensive output has proven an inverse correlation with the energy of their protection: the higher the protection, the extra subdued the offense tends to be, and vice versa. On a smaller scale, no quarterback in NFL historical past has been extra environment friendly when trailing within the second half. Since getting into the league, Mahomes has almost doubled the next-best quarterback in drive-level effectivity in these conditions and leads by a large margin in EPA per play.