- Are Travis Kelce’s finest video games behind him? Despite notching a team-leading 131 targets (third-most amongst all tight ends) final season, Kelce recorded profession lows in PFF receiving grade (70.5), receiving yardage (823) and touchdowns (three).
- Aaron Rodgers is aggressive within the pink zone: The Steelers’ new quarterback is greater than snug throwing when the sector will get condensed within the pink zone. Last season, the Jets had been the one workforce to eclipse 70% in red-zone go play proportion.
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While some gamers are simply getting began, every new season might mark the final for lots of the NFL’s getting older stars. Hungry to show there’s extra within the tank, these veterans are the gamers to observe in NFL betting markets for the 2025 season.
Odds sourced from FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce has produced among the best careers the NFL has seen on the tight finish place, however the cracks have begun to floor in his recreation. Despite notching a team-leading 131 targets in 2024 (third most amongst tight ends), Kelce recorded profession lows in PFF receiving grade (70.5), receiving yardage (823), touchdowns (three), receptions of 15 or extra yards (15) and yards per route run (1.43) through the common season.
The most alarming half is that the Chiefs spent a lot of the season coping with accidents to key targets in Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown. While there are questions concerning a possible suspension for Rice, Brown is about to return as a key piece of Kansas City’s offense. Pair that with the continued improvement of Xavier Worthy, and it’s showing extra like Kelce’s goal share will diminish in 2025.
As PFF’s Nathan Jahnke highlighted, Kelce’s receiving numbers have been on the decline for the previous two seasons. Although he nonetheless managed to surpass this 725.5-yard line in every, that got here due largely to his 248 targets, probably the most of any tight finish because the begin of 2023. Without the quantity to prop up his yardage, the veteran is prone to fall properly under this line and far nearer to his 630-yard projection.
Pick: Under 725.5 receiving yards (-114)
QB Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers
The latest historical past of quarterback play in Pittsburgh hasn’t been as explosive because the Steel City devoted would really like. The tandem of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields totaled simply 21 touchdowns final common season, and the mix of Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph in 2023 mustered solely 13. In reality, the final Steelers quarterback to surpass this 23.5-passing-touchdown line in a season was Ben Roethlisberger in 2020, when he tossed 33.
Luckily for the Steelers, Rodgers nonetheless is aware of tips on how to whip it round at 41 years previous. He has by no means produced fewer than 25 passing touchdowns in a season during which he performed a minimum of 10 video games.
One motive for this comes right down to Rodgers’ willingness to throw when the sector will get condensed within the pink zone. Last season, the Jets had been the one workforce to eclipse 70% in red-zone go play proportion. By comparability, the Steelers had been one among 12 groups to run it greater than 50% of the time. With high quality red-zone targets like D.Okay. Metcalf and Jonnu Smith — each of whom have generated 74.0-plus red-zone PFF receiving grades over the previous three seasons — count on that pattern to comply with Rodgers to Pittsburgh.
The Steelers’ protection strives to remove the soccer, practically doubling the Jets in whole turnovers pressured within the 2024 common season, which suggests extra alternatives for Rodgers with a brief area.
Pick: Over 23.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
RB Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings
The transfer to Minnesota final 12 months resulted in one among Jones’ finest seasons within the NFL, as he produced profession highs in carries (255) and yardage (1,138) through the common season. However, the Vikings’ backfield added Jordan Mason this offseason, and he might stand in the way in which of a repeat efficiency for the 30-year-old again.
While Jones is a top quality runner, his quantity has propped up his manufacturing in recent times. In 2024, he noticed greater than 67% of the Vikings’ designed carries and completed within the prime 10 in makes an attempt through the common season. Yet, his 4.5 yards per carry common ranked simply twenty second amongst working backs with a minimum of 100 dashing makes an attempt. Conversely, Mason’s 5.2 mark ranked ninth.
And the spectacular metrics for Mason don’t cease there. He popped off because the headliner within the 49ers‘ backfield with Christian McCaffrey out early within the 12 months. Through Week 7, Mason generated probably the most explosive runs (19) and the second-most missed tackles pressured (32) within the NFL whereas additionally producing a breakaway fee that ranked within the 94th percentile.
It will probably be tough for Jones to fend off Mason from carving out a large portion of the workload. PFF’s projections point out that Mason might overtake the veteran on the bottom whereas Jones takes on a bigger position within the receiving recreation. Should that be the case, Jones is unlikely to hit this 775.5-yard dashing line, a mark he has by no means reached in a season with lower than 170 makes an attempt.
On the opposite hand, that might additionally point out that Mason is being underpriced by oddsmakers. With a projection of greater than 870 yards, the brand new Vikings again initiatives properly over his 575.5-yard dashing line. His 295-yard dashing line differential is the most important of any again this season.
Pick: Under 775.5 dashing yards (-110)