- The market is altering: For years, betting unders on season-long participant props was the usual method, as sportsbooks usually set inflated traces. But in latest seasons, the market has shifted, creating extra worth on the over, particularly for gamers with elite expertise.
- Titans QB Cam Ward will take the reins from Day 1: If Ward averages a modest 6.8 yards per try on 500 passes, he would exceed his yardage projection by 200 yards in his rookie 12 months.
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QB Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
- Passing yards: Over/below 3,200.5
- Passing touchdowns: Over/below 18.5
I’m leaning towards the over on each projections for Cam Ward’s rookie season. With intensive faculty expertise throughout a number of methods, Ward’s transition to the NFL could also be smoother than that of a typical rookie. If he averages a modest 6.8 yards per try on 500 passes, he would exceed his yardage projection by 200 yards. While the Titans’ receiving corps exterior of Calvin Ridley is a priority, a breakout from one among their three rookie wideouts, together with continued growth from tight finish Chigoziem Okonkwo, may give the previous Hurricane quarterback a stable shot at surpassing expectations in 2025.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
- Rushing yards: Over/below 1,075.5
With a brand new teaching workers and quarterback in Las Vegas, projecting something with certainty for the Raiders in 2025 is a problem. However, the most secure wager could also be their dedication to rookie operating again Ashton Jeanty, whom they chose with the No. 6 general choose on this 12 months’s draft. If Chip Kelly brings his signature up-tempo, run-heavy offense again to the NFL, Jeanty may see near 250 carries. At that quantity, he would wish to common simply 4.4 yards per carry to achieve 1,100 speeding yards.
At 211 kilos, there are legitimate questions on whether or not the previous Boise State star can deal with a full NFL workload. But if he stays wholesome, Jeanty has a practical shot at hitting that mark, simply because the smaller Bucky Irving did in 2024.
WR Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Receiving yards: Over/below 750.5
Hunter is likely one of the most difficult prospects to undertaking in NFL historical past, as he’s trying to play each methods at a stage hardly ever seen within the fashionable period. However, post-draft feedback from the teaching workers — together with important offensive reps throughout rookie minicamp and OTAs — counsel he’ll see loads of motion at vast receiver in 2025. This can even be the primary time the Heisman Trophy winner spends most of his follow and assembly time centered on offense, as he was primarily utilized as a cornerback in faculty.
Given the uncertainty, this isn’t a wager to make with excessive confidence. Still, with Hunter’s elite upside, a gifted quarterback throwing him the ball, and a confirmed playcaller guiding the offense, I’d lean towards the over on his receiving manufacturing.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
- Receiving yards: Over/below 825.5
For years, betting unders on season-long participant props was the usual method, as sportsbooks usually set inflated traces. But in latest seasons, the market has shifted, creating extra worth on the over, particularly for gamers with elite expertise.
With that in thoughts, I’m backing the over on Tetairoa McMillan’s rookie prop. McMillan joins a Panthers receiving corps the place he ought to command a excessive quantity of targets, paired with quarterback Bryce Young, who confirmed indicators of turning the nook with PFF grades of 91.7, 80.3 and 89.3 over his remaining three video games of 2024. While there’s some danger in projecting Young to maintain that stage of play, a regression in effectivity may lead to much more passing quantity because the group performs from behind.
McMillan proved he can deal with heavy utilization in faculty, recording 274 targets over the previous two seasons. As a top-10 choose, he’s prone to be the point of interest of the offense, and I count on the Panthers to feed him sufficient targets to clear this quantity in Year 1.
