• No QB enjoying in addition to Toronto’s Chad Kelly the previous month: He leads the CFL with an 83.8% adjusted completion price and has made eight big-time throws to only one turnover-worthy play.
• Throwing deep on Montreal isn’t a straightforward job: As a unit, the Alouettes have allowed a 15-plus-yard completion on simply 14.9% of their performs, the second-lowest mark within the league.
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Estimated studying time: 8 minutes
TORONTO ARGONAUTS VS. MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The Argonauts began sluggish per week in the past of their East Division Semi-Finals matchup, falling behind the Ottawa Redblacks 13-3 early within the second quarter. However, the Argos awoke after that, outscoring Ottawa 55-25 the remainder of the sport. With their dominant win, they arrange a rematch of final season’s East Division Finals. Last yr’s sport noticed the red-hot Montreal Alouettes journey to Toronto to tackle the East Division Champion Argonauts. The script is flipped this yr, because the No. 1 seed Alouettes host a Toronto group that’s received 4 of its final 5 video games (and the one loss being a walk-off rouge in a meaningless Week 21 sport). Montreal has been the very best group within the league all season, but it surely has regarded beatable over the ultimate month and a little bit of the season. Can the Alouettes maintain off Toronto and punch their ticket to a second-straight Grey Cup sport? Or will the Argonauts get revenge for final yr’s upset loss and discover themselves enjoying for a second Grey Cup in three years?
TORONTO PLAYER TO WATCH: QB CHAD KELLY
After lacking the primary 9 video games of the season on account of a suspension, Kelly obtained off to a sluggish begin in his return. He’s been something however towards the top of the season. Over his previous three video games, Kelly leads the complete league with a 94.7 total grade. He leads the CFL with an 83.8% adjusted completion price and has made eight big-time throws to only one turnover-worthy play. Kelly has been wanting like he did to win the CFL Most Outstanding Player in 2023. The final time these two groups met, Kelly had a reasonably pedestrian sport with only a 65.4 passing grade. While the Argos nonetheless received that sport, they’ll absolutely want an enormous sport out of Kelly on this one to return out on prime.
MONTREAL PLAYER TO WATCH: LB TYRICE BEVERETTE
The Alouettes protection has loads of gamers price mentioning throughout it, however none are as essential to the group as Beverette has been this season. The linebacker is the protection’s do-it-all weapon, excelling in any respect three phases of the sport and by no means needing to go away the sector. Beverette led all linebackers with 40 pass-rush wins, ranked fourth within the league with 66 whole run tackles and allowed only one landing in protection whereas choosing off two passes and breaking apart 5 extra. Beverette additionally led the complete CFL with a 91.8 particular groups grade. If Beverette was requested to play offense, he’d virtually actually succeed. There’s seemingly nothing he can’t do, which incorporates main this Montreal group to a win and a berth within the Grey Cup.
TORONTO WILL WIN IF: IT CAN PRESSURE THE QUARTERBACK
Montreal’s greatest offensive power is its cross blocking. The unit leads the league with a 73.6 pass-blocking grade and permits simply eight pressures per sport. This is vital for QB Cody Fajardo, who has a 2.0% turnover-worthy play price when saved clear, but it surely jumps to 4.5% when pressured. The Argonauts lead the CFL with a cumulative 86.5 pass-rushing grade. Their 322 whole pressures rank second within the CFL, as does their 24.9 pass-rushing productiveness rating. EDGE Robbie Smith ranks second within the league with 57 whole pressures, whereas DI Jake Ceresna, DI Ralph Holley and EDGE Folarin Orimolade all rank inside the highest seven in pass-rushing grade. If these guys can discover success up entrance, it might be sufficient to show the tides of this sport.
MONTREAL WILL WIN IF: IT CAN CONTAIN TORONTO’S DEEP PASSING ATTACK
It’s no secret that Toronto likes to push the ball downfield. Chad Kelly’s 12.2-yard common depth of goal ranks second within the league. Over 26.2% of his passes journey 15-plus yards within the air, the second-highest mark within the league. Since Week 19, Kelly is 13-for-20 for 473 yards, 4 touchdowns, zero interceptions and one dropped cross on throws past 15 yards. They are one of many CFL’s greatest deep-ball passing groups. The Alouettes must take that away in the event that they wish to win. They have the protection to do it. As a unit, the Alouettes have allowed a 15-plus-yard completion on simply 14.9% of their performs, the second-lowest mark within the league. Their star CB Kabion Ento has allowed one on simply 1.5% of his snaps. Montreal leads the CFL with simply 7.9 yards per protection snap allowed. If it may cease the Toronto deep ball, it ought to be ok with its possibilities to win.
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS VS. WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
After lacking the playoffs for the previous two seasons, the Saskatchewan Roughriders managed to show issues round below rookie head coach Corey Mace and earn themselves a house playoff sport final week. They dealt with the B.C. Lions 28-19 and get an opportunity on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The identical Blue Bombers which have knocked the Roughriders out of the final three playoffs that they’ve made. This yr’s Winnipeg group began off tough, going 2-6 and sitting on the backside of the West Division early within the yr. The Blue Bombers responded by successful 9 of their remaining ten video games and ending on prime of the West. Both of those groups can largely thank their protection for being on this sport. The Blue Bombers are permitting simply 20.3 factors per sport, the CFL’s No. 1 scoring protection. The Roughriders have pressured opposing offenses into 49 turnovers, essentially the most within the league. The winner of this sport will doubtless come right down to whichever offense is ready to make the least errors in opposition to these elite defenses.
SASKATCHEWAN PLAYER TO WATCH: RB A.J. OUELLETTE
The Roughriders introduced in RB A.J. Ouellette this offseason to show their run sport round. Injuries restricted his effectiveness, as he rushed for simply 626 yards and broke solely 21 tackles on 143 carries this season. However, the Riders didn’t signal Ouellette for the common season solely, they signed him to return up huge in powerful video games. That’s precisely what he did final week, speeding for 70 yards and breaking 5 tackles on 14 carries — 84.3% of these yards got here after first contact, and he had the very best grade amongst RBs for the week. Ouellette enjoying properly permits Saskatchewan to function effectively with the quick passing sport, one thing that QB Trevor Harris excels at. Another good sport from Ouellette may propel Saskatchewan to their first Grey Cup since 2013.
WINNIPEG PLAYER TO WATCH: ED WILLIE JEFFERSON
The ageless Willie Jefferson simply earned his sixth choice to the All-CFL Team and remains to be one of many CFL’s most dominant pass-rushers. His 54 whole pressures ranked third within the league this yr, and his 13.2% pass-rush win price was a top-10 mark. Where Jefferson could make an enormous distinction is his signature batted passes. Since PFF started charting the CFL in 2022, Jefferson has batted down a ridiculous 35 passes. The second-most in that span is 12. Jefferson is a sport breaker who’s able to single-handedly ending opposing offensive drives along with his cross speeding. Some pressures right here, a batted cross or two there, and Winnipeg might be coming away with a win.
SASKATCHEWAN WILL WIN IF: THEY GET THE QUICK PASSING GAME GOING
Nobody is best at dissecting a protection shortly than QB Trevor Harris is for Saskatchewan. He was one in every of three QBs to throw greater than 50% of his passes past the primary down markers and in addition had the quickest common time to throw within the league at 2.27 seconds. That’s huge in opposition to this Blue Bombers protection. On passes thrown in below 2.2 seconds, Winnipeg permits a 74.9% completion price and seven.09 yards per protection snaps. On passes over 2.2 seconds, these marks drop to 54.9% and 6.94. The Blue Bombers are the one group within the league whose protection permits a better share of first downs on these fast passes (37.0%) than on the longer-developing throws (36.1%). It’s not that they’re dangerous at fast passes, it’s that they’re so good at overlaying the longer performs {that a} fast sport is the very best likelihood of beating them.
WINNIPEG WILL WIN IF: ZACH COLLAROS DOESN’T FORCE THROWS
This hasn’t been an impressive season for Collaros by any means. The quarterback’s 77.3 passing grade this season ranked ninth out of 11 certified quarterbacks. His 23 big-time throws had been a major dropoff from his earlier two seasons (36 and 38), whereas his 23 turnover-worthy performs had been the second-most within the league. Collaros has at all times been a high-risk-high-reward quarterback. He will typically drive passes to his receivers making an attempt to make a play downfield. That could not work in opposition to this Saskatchewan protection. The Roughriders lead the CFL with 49 takeaways, ten greater than second place. Guys like HB Rolan Milligan and CB Marcus Sayles are greater than able to making an enormous play and coming away with the ball on these sorts of throws. Collaros might want to take what the protection provides him and transfer the ball downfield effectively if he desires to beat this Saskatchewan protection.