• Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams Pass and Run Defense: Green Bay faces Los Angeles’ fantasy-friendly cross protection and error-prone run protection.
• Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pass and Run Defense: Baltimore will get to choose on Cincinnati’s injury-weakened line of defense.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Identifying exploitable defensive models permits for artistic re-draft and each day fantasy sports activities (DFS) roster constructions, significantly in circumstances the place a plus matchup will not be readily obvious. The article beneath breaks down three defenses with exploitable pass- and/or run-defense models for fantasy managers to focus on in each half-points-per-reception (half-PPR) and PPR scoring codecs.
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams Pass and Run Defense
The Los Angeles Rams’ 198 zone protection, defensive snaps rank seventh-most within the NFL. Among NFL zone protection models, Los Angeles owns the sixth-highest explosive cross performs allowed charge (16.7%), the third-highest yards allowed per protection snap common (7.80) and ranks second-worst in each anticipated factors added (EPA) allowed per play (0.315) and optimistic EPA allowed charge (58.3%). Among NFL run defenses, Los Angeles ranks sixth-worst in EPA allowed per play (0.029), fifth-worst in common depth of deal with (4.72) and has missed the second-most tackles (30).
PFF Greenline implies Green Bay will rating 25.25 factors as a 3.0-point highway favourite. Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with no less than 265 dropbacks towards zone protection from Week 1, 2023 by Week 4, 2024, Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love ranks sixth in yards per passing try (8.2). Among Green Bay cross catchers with no less than 9 receiving snaps towards zone protection, huge receivers Bo Melton (33.3%), Dontayvion Wicks (26.2%) and Jayden Reed (21.3%) are the three most effective goal earners. In Weeks 3-4, Green Bay’s No. 1 operating again Josh Jacobs (50.0% speeding share, 76.7 PFF speeding grade and 0.13 missed tackles compelled per speeding try) holds solely a slight operating again speeding share edge over No. 2 operating again Emanuel Wilson (43.5% speeding share, 79.1 PFF speeding grade and 0.25 missed tackles compelled per speeding try), although Wilson grades out because the superior rusher and extra environment friendly deal with breaker.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pass and Run Defense
The Baltimore Ravens face a struggling Cincinnati Bengals protection that’s more likely to be with out its most consequential participant, edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who suffered a Week 4 neck stinger and was noticed sporting a sling post-game. Among 64 NFL defensive linemen with no less than 85 pass-rushing snaps, Hendrickson ranks eleventh in each pass-rush win charge (18.3%) and quarterback strain charge (16.1%), grading out because the Nineteenth-best participant (73.6 PFF pass-rush grade). Hendrickson is the one Cincinnati defensive lineman to provide a double-digit charge in both aforementioned class, amongst qualifying gamers with no less than 10 pass-rushing snaps. All three remaining line of defense starters are both sidelined or taking part in by multi-week accidents. Among NFL defenses, Cincinnati ranks backside 12 in catch charge allowed (73.6%), EPA allowed per cross (0.125) and run (0.039) play and common depth of run-defense deal with (4.36).
PFF Greenline implies Baltimore will rating 26.5 factors as a 2.5-point highway favourite in Week 5’s highest-totaled sport (50.5 factors). Cincinnati’s passing sport parts make for good stacking companions, dealing with a Baltimore cross protection permitting the seventh-most yards per protection snap (6.80).
Chicago Bears vs. Panthers Pass and Run Defense
The Chicago Bears offense has winnable matchups towards the Carolina Panthers’ pass- and run-defense models. Among NFL cross defenses, Carolina ranks within the backside six in quarterback strain charge (25.4%), catch charge allowed (75.2%) and yards allowed per protection snap (6.81). In Week 4, Carolina misplaced its second stalwart starter for the yr, linebacker Shaq Thompson. Thompson’s 73.2 PFF run-defense grade ranks ninth amongst 36 NFL linebackers with no less than 85 run-defense snaps. He ranks top-two in tackles (21), stops (13) and tackles for loss or no acquire (six). Carolina’s run protection ranks Nineteenth in common depth of deal with (4.29) and twentieth in explosive run performs allowed charge (13.1%). Their 14.3% explosive cross performs allowed charge, 36.1% success charge allowed and 0.058 EPA allowed per play all rank within the backside 12.
Chicago’s Week 4 utilization suggests operating backs D’Andre Swift (16 speeding makes an attempt, seven targets, 63.9% contact charge) and Roschon Johnson (seven speeding makes an attempt, zero targets, 38.9% contact charge) have consolidated operating again snaps and touches, sidelining the remaining Chicago operating backs. Johnson hogged 75.0% of third- and fourth-down operating again snaps however Swift took 71.4% of the higher-valued two-minute drill snaps. Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams has but to provide a ceiling sport however he has promisingly run the ball 5 occasions in three-of-four video games. He additionally managed to provide a 3.6% big-time-throw charge during the last two weeks, rating 18th amongst 37 NFL quarterbacks with no less than 15 dropbacks in Weeks 3-4. Williams registered a 0.0% charge in Weeks 1-2. PFF Greenline lists Chicago as a 4.0-point house favourite, which bodes positively for Chicago’s speeding quantity, although the pass-defense matchup needs to be outright ignored.