LAS VEGAS — Democrats simply suffered a bruising defeat on the presidential degree in Nevada for the primary time in 20 years, fueled by a swing towards Republicans amongst working-class voters.
The final result has prompted a reckoning with how they failed. In interviews, prime Democrats and their allies cited “messaging” issues, the late swap to nominating Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump’s distinctive capability to capitalize on the ache of post-pandemic rising prices, which hit onerous for a lot of voters.
Yet they continue to be upbeat about their prospects in Nevada, noting that the purple wave ended with Trump and didn’t translate to different Republicans within the state. The peculiar final result helps them map out the technique to color Nevada blue once more in 2028.
“I actually consider he’s, I’m going to say, very gifted at focusing on sure teams of society and telling them what they need to know,” mentioned Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nev., who mentioned she gained a district that backed Trump. “And I believe the proof might be within the pudding — if he can ship on these guarantees.”
If Republicans fail to enhance their lives, Lee mentioned, “it’s going to return again to hang-out them in two years after which once more in 4 years.”
While Democrats’ presidential nominee misplaced, Sen. Jacky Rosen gained re-election, and Democrats in all three intently divided Las Vegas-area House districts gained. Democrats additionally held their floor within the state Legislature, falling simply shy of supermajorities.
Ticket-splitting and partial nonvoting in Nevada’s “not one of the above” poll possibility had impacts.
Harris misplaced Nevada regardless of profitable about 4,000 extra votes than Rosen did. The key distinction? Many Trump backers refused to examine the field for Rosen’s opponent, Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown. Brown gained almost 75,000 fewer votes than Trump.
A working-class message
“Trump is a phenomenon. He’s a model. And he’s been at it for 30 years with ‘The Apprentice,’ showing on WWF, et cetera,” mentioned Ted Pappageorge, the secretary-treasurer of the influential Culinary Union in Las Vegas. “When you lose the highest of the ticket, you usually have harm. It didn’t occur.”
With its giant inhabitants of Latinos and voters with out faculty levels, Nevada was floor zero for the 2 demographics that helped Trump sweep all seven battleground states.
According to NBC News exit polls of Nevada, Trump misplaced Latinos by 26 proportion factors in 2020, however he gained them by 2 factors this 12 months. Among Nevada voters with out faculty levels, Trump prolonged his lead from 2 factors in 2020 to 10 factors this 12 months.
Pappageorge, whose union represents the blue-collar employees who employees the glamorous motels and casinos of Sin City, mentioned Democrats had been damage by “messaging points” that allow Trump enchantment to working-class voters by operating towards “elitism.”
“Democrats must get again to the fundamentals of preventing for working-class points and values,” he mentioned, together with “working-class white, Black and Latino employees,” each women and men. “Working-class voters don’t take note of politics. They’re not watching CNN and Fox or all that. They’re fearful about taking good care of their households,” he mentioned.
Even as Trump carried Nevada Latinos by 2 factors, they voted for Rosen by 7 factors, in accordance with NBC News exit polls.
Republican hopes for the long run
Republicans say Nevada’s vote for Trump marks the start of a shift towards their social gathering that the GOP can construct on.
“It’s a extremely massive deal. We’ve seen Republicans have success on the state degree since 2004, however the presidential had eluded us,” mentioned Jeremy Hughes, a GOP strategist who has labored on Nevada races. “When you take a look at 2020, 2022 and 2024, you see a pattern that might be silly for anybody to disregard.”
Asked concerning the GOP’s failure to transform down the poll, Hughes mentioned: “It’s nonetheless a piece in progress. Beating incumbents is difficult. But success will construct on success if we proceed executing in 2026 and past.”
He added that Republicans can begin proving Democrats mistaken by re-electing GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo in 2026.
Other Republicans mentioned assets had been an issue down the poll.
“Brown was badly outspent. He closed the hole, however the cavalry most likely arrived a few week too late,” mentioned a nationwide Republican strategist engaged on Senate races, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to talk frankly about his social gathering.
The strategist mentioned the House GOP machine “didn’t spend a penny” in Nevada this 12 months however added: “Republicans ought to be optimistic for Nevada down the highway. The voter registration traits inform the story.”
The Democrats’ highway map
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., who defied headwinds to win in 2022, mentioned Democrats should get a deal with on the rising variety of unaligned voters.
“We now have extra nonpartisans or independents within the state of Nevada than we’ve ever had earlier than, over a 3rd of them. And so we now have to know who they’re,” she mentioned. “You’ve acquired to focus your message on these voters on the finish of the day and speak concerning the points that they care about. That’s why Jacky gained.”
“Nevada’s races are all the time aggressive and shut. That’s not going to alter. We’ve all the time had shut presidential races,” Cortez Masto mentioned. “But on the finish of the day, do I’ve confidence within the Democratic floor sport and the infrastructure and the knocking on the doorways and speaking to our voters? I do have faith in that. And that’s a part of why we’re so profitable.”
Rosen mentioned she gained as a result of she delivered outcomes for tourism, wildfire mitigation, infrastructure, a brand new Veterans Affairs hospital in Reno and photo voltaic, wind and geothermal jobs.
Harris, she mentioned, was hamstrung by unhealthy luck.
“There’s loads of bigger questions, in fact. I’ll say this as a lady: Are folks prepared for a girl president?” Rosen mentioned. “This was a novel election cycle due to the way in which that President Biden stepped again 100 days earlier than the election.”
Josh Marcus-Blank, a Democratic operative who labored for Cortez Masto in 2022 and on Harris’ 2024 marketing campaign, mentioned his social gathering retains “the highway map to win in Nevada” with a various coalition of voters and an agenda targeted on economics, housing and the price of dwelling.
“At the identical time, it’s a state the place voters have persistently stood up for reproductive freedom, and, whether or not it’s on the poll or not, abortion rights will proceed to be an enormous piece of Democratic campaigns going ahead,” he mentioned.
Pappageorge praised Harris for operating a powerful marketing campaign towards lengthy odds. He mentioned that whereas the Biden-Harris coverage file on blue-collar employees is robust, many aren’t perceiving it.
“Joe Biden was probably the most pro-union, pro-worker candidate and president that we’ve ever had in our lifetimes,” he mentioned. “But general, the Democratic Party missed the mark, and so they’re going to must re-evaluate that dedication to working-class voters.”