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Ahead of NFL Week 18, our media workforce has dived deep into the numbers to ship key insights for each NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that form every recreation.
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LAC@HOU | PIT@BAL | DEN@BUF | GB@PHI | WAS@TB | MIN@LAR
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Justin Herbert overcame a sluggish begin to the season to complete as one of many league’s most harmful passers.
Herbert struggled over the primary six weeks, rating twenty fifth in passing yards per try (6.5), twentieth in PFF big-time throw charge (3.0%) and twenty sixth in passing grade (58.2). However, he has been a revelation since Week 7, incomes PFF’s highest passing grade (93.4), rating fourth in big-time throw charge (7.1%), and posting the sixth-best passing YPA (8.1).
A vital issue on this turnaround has been a strategic shift by the Chargers to lean on the passing recreation earlier in drives. Through the primary six weeks, the workforce handed on simply 43.7% of early downs, the bottom charge within the NFL. Since then, that quantity has jumped to 60.5%, rating fifth league-wide.
While the Chargers discovered their rhythm, the identical can’t be stated for C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Houston’s offense has struggled with consistency, rating nineteenth in EPA per play and recording a league-low constructive EPA charge of 38.4%. The Texans’ boom-or-bust nature has outlined their season: they rank tenth in performs of 10 or extra yards (222) however thirty first in performs that resulted in a loss or no acquire (108). This volatility has restricted their capacity to maintain drives successfully.
A significant component within the Texans’ struggles has been their incapability to guard Stroud. The rookie quarterback has been sacked 52 occasions, the second-most within the NFL behind Caleb Williams. While a few of this may be attributed to Stroud holding onto the ball, a lot of the blame falls on an offensive line that has allowed a league-high 76 unblocked pressures in move safety.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has hit a wall throughout their ongoing four-game shedding streak, failing to carry a lead in any of these video games. A key situation has been their incapability to guard Russell Wilson. Over this stretch, Pittsburgh’s offensive line and blocking unit have allowed 11 sacks, tied for essentially the most within the NFL since Week 15. The unit has additionally posted a 34% strain charge allowed, the sixth-highest within the league, highlighting their struggles to maintain the pocket clear.
The Baltimore Ravens will look to use these points with their evolving pass-rushing technique. Since Week 16, Baltimore has recorded a simulated strain on 51% of snaps, the very best charge within the league. If the Ravens can get to Wilson, it may spell hassle for the Steelers offense, as Wilson has struggled mightily underneath strain. His 43.9 passer score underneath strain over the previous 4 video games ranks twenty third out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, and his 2.2 yards per try ranks lifeless final.
On the opposite facet of the ball, Derrick Henry looms massive as a vital issue on this matchup. In their Week 16 conflict, Henry ran rampant in opposition to the Steelers, recording seven explosive runs of 10 or extra yards — a season-high for the bruising again.
Pittsburgh’s protection struggled to carry him down, permitting eight pressured missed tackles on his dashing makes an attempt, the second-most Henry has recorded in a recreation this 12 months. His 74 dashing yards after contact tied the very best complete the Steelers have allowed to a single participant this season, underscoring the necessity for Pittsburgh to tighten up their tackling and include Henry within the backfield.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
The Broncos may discover success in opposition to a weak Buffalo run protection that permits explosive runs of 10 or extra yards on the second-highest charge within the league (15% of dashing makes an attempt confronted).
Denver’s running-back-by-committee strategy lacks a real lead again, however Jaleel McLaughlin has emerged as their most dynamic possibility. McLaughlin leads the Broncos’ backfield with 16 explosive runs, rating fifth amongst 46 working backs with at the least 100 carries in explosive run charge (14%). He additionally boasts a powerful 1.8 yards earlier than contact per try, the very best amongst Denver’s working backs, making him a key participant to look at.
Buffalo’s protection thrives on disguising coverages, utilizing that strategy on the sixth-highest charge within the league (36%). Rookie quarterback Bo Nix will seemingly be cautious when going through these seems. His common depth of goal in opposition to disguised coverages is simply 6.2 yards, rating thirty first out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. However, Nix’s mobility may turn into an element, as he has proven a bent to scramble in opposition to disguise, with an 8% scramble charge that ranks fourth-highest amongst quarterbacks this season.
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The rematch between the Packers and Eagles in Philadelphia comes with important personnel modifications, notably for Green Bay.
The absence of Christian Watson may affect the Packers’ offensive technique. Watson has been their most explosive receiving weapon, with 48% of his receptions gaining 15 or extra yards and 37% of his targets approaching throws 20-plus yards downfield — the second-highest charge amongst receivers with at the least 50 targets this season.
Adapting to a brief passing recreation may match within the Packers’ favor in opposition to a formidable Eagles secondary that excels at defending deep pictures. Philadelphia permits only a 48.5 passer score on throws 20 or extra yards downfield, the second-lowest within the NFL, and their league-leading 33% pressured incompletion charge has made large performs almost unimaginable.
However, Green Bay thrives within the quick recreation, with pass-catchers turning throws of 9 yards or much less — together with these behind the road of scrimmage — into explosive beneficial properties of 15 or extra yards at a 12% charge, the third-highest charge within the league. Their 6.6 yards after the catch common on quick throws ranks fifth, and their 59 missed tackles pressured are seventh-most total.
Defensively, the Packers shall be with out Jaire Alexander, prompting changes to their scheme underneath Jeff Hafley. Green Bay has leaned closely on Cover-2 since Week 13, using it on 27% of their snaps — the very best charge within the league. The outcomes have been promising, as they’ve allowed simply 5.3 yards per play (ninth-lowest) and produced a contested goal charge of 12% (additionally ninth-highest).
This strategy may pose challenges for Jalen Hurts, who has struggled considerably in opposition to Cover-2 defenses. Hurts has an 89.1 passer score (14th amongst quarterbacks) and seven.2 yards per try (seventeenth) in opposition to cover-2 this season, and he has but to throw a landing on 70 makes an attempt versus the protection.
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The highlight of this playoff showdown will undoubtedly shine on the matchup between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore, two gamers with a storied historical past of intense battles within the NFC South. Since Lattimore entered the league in 2017, he has persistently made life tough for Evans, holding him to simply 15 catches for 306 yards over 12 regular-season matchups—a mean of 1.3 catches and 25.5 yards per recreation. A key consider Lattimore’s success has been his physicality, contesting 42% of the targets thrown Evans’ method in comparison with the 16% contested charge Evans faces in opposition to different defenders in his profession.
Penalties may additionally play a vital position on this matchup. Evans has drawn 55 pass-interference penalties since getting into the league in 2014, second solely to DeAndre Hopkins (56). Meanwhile, Lattimore has been flagged for move interference 21 occasions since 2017, the third-highest mark amongst defenders.
In their Week 1 assembly, the Buccaneers held Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels to 184 passing yards, his lowest output in any full recreation this season. However, Daniels posed important issues on the bottom, dashing for 77 yards, 5 conversions, and 4 explosive runs on scrambles—all season highs. His 595 dashing yards on scrambles this season rank because the third-most in a single season by a quarterback within the PFF period. Tampa Bay’s protection has struggled in opposition to scrambling quarterbacks all 12 months, permitting a 65% success charge on such performs, the third-worst within the league.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
In their Week 8 matchup, Matthew Stafford dealt with the Vikings’ unique move protection with poise, incomes an 81.5 passing grade—the very best by any quarterback in opposition to Minnesota this season. To disrupt Stafford this time, the Vikings should enhance their pass-rush effectiveness, which has been a weak spot of their earlier encounter. Minnesota generated a 24% strain charge in opposition to the Rams in Week 8, their second-lowest mark of the season, and did not report a sack—one in all simply two such video games this 12 months. That’s troubling, contemplating Stafford’s stark efficiency hole when pressured. His 90.8 passing grade when stored clear plummets to 29.6 when underneath duress, the biggest drop-off amongst qualifying quarterbacks.
The Vikings’ reliance on the passing recreation close to the purpose line has been a key a part of their offensive id, rating sixth in pass-play charge contained in the 10-yard line at 58%. While this strategy has paid off all through the season, with Sam Darnold throwing 20 passing touchdowns from that vary—third-most within the league—it backfired of their Week 18 loss to the Lions. Against Detroit, Darnold accomplished simply 1 of 9 passes for 3 yards and no touchdowns on 11 performs contained in the 10-yard line, together with two failed fourth-down makes an attempt. While the Lions boast the league’s greatest passer score allowed inside the 10-yard line (58.0), the Rams are a detailed second at 66.8, presenting one other powerful problem.
Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ go-to risk within the crimson zone, couldn’t convert his lone goal inside the 10-yard line in Week 18 however has in any other case been dependable. From Weeks 1-17, Addison introduced in all eight of his targets contained in the 10-yard line for 42 yards and 4 touchdowns, proving to be a constant and environment friendly weapon in tight areas. The Vikings will want him to ship in opposition to a formidable Rams protection to show these close-range alternatives into factors.