- No one can beat peak Christian McCaffrey: At his finest, McCaffrey has outscored each different lively operating again at their finest.
- D.J. Moore has continuity at quarterback: The former first-round choose has by no means had the identical quarterback play greater than 400 snaps in two straight seasons. Barring damage, Caleb Williams would be the first.
- Subscribe to PFF+: Get entry to participant grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy soccer rankings, the entire PFF fantasy draft analysis instruments and extra!
Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes
Several NFL gamers disillusioned fantasy soccer managers final season for a number of causes. In some circumstances, it was accidents, however in others, modifications to the offense or each. While there have been circumstances of declining veterans who may by no means return to their former worth, there are gamers that we are able to count on to bounce again this season. All of those gamers needs to be more healthy this season, and a few of their offenses have modified, giving motive for optimism.
The common draft place listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for the place the participant is picked on common in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last up to date: Monday, June 30
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 2.01)
Christian McCaffrey was the eighth total choose of the 2017 NFL Draft. Since he was drafted, there have been 10 circumstances of a operating again averaging no less than 24 fantasy factors per recreation in a season, and he has 4 of them. That consists of the one season previously three years, and the highest two seasons in fantasy factors per recreation.
He’s achieved his elite fantasy manufacturing by being the perfect receiving again within the league, in addition to the perfect runner. Since becoming a member of the San Francisco 49ers, he’s additionally benefited from enjoying in the most effective offenses within the league behind a powerful offensive line.
McCaffrey’s downfall in current seasons has been his accidents. He performed each recreation in his first three seasons. In 2020, he suffered an ankle damage, an A/C joint sprain and glute pressure, main him to solely play three video games. In 2021, he suffered a hamstring pressure adopted by an ankle sprain, main him to play in seven video games. This previous 12 months, he handled Achilles tendinitis in each toes. He returned for 4 video games however then a PCL sprain ended his season.
By all accounts, McCaffrey needs to be at 100% for the beginning of the season. However, he’s 29 years previous, previous the age when operating backs peak. McCaffrey wasn’t very efficient in his 4 video games final season, however he seemingly wasn’t 100% in these video games. He may very well be again to his regular self, through which case, he may very well be the highest total operating again in fantasy. There can be an opportunity we by no means see the identical participant he was in 2023, when he was a first-team All-Pro.
The 49ers’ offensive line was a serious asset for McCaffrey in 2023 when it had the best crew run-blocking grade. The line wasn’t pretty much as good in 2024, but it surely nonetheless ranked third total. Left sort out Trent Williams had his run-blocking grade drop from the 90.0s to 81.4, which continues to be excellent however not as elite as he as soon as was. He will likely be 37 years previous by the beginning of the season, so we are able to’t count on him to return to his 2023 kind. Finding Dominick Puni was an enormous win for the 49ers’ offense. The major concern heading into 2025 is at left guard after Aaron Banks landed with the Green Bay Packers. Nick Zakelj is penciled in for the beginning position, however he hasn’t regarded nice in his two profession begins.
This ought to nonetheless be one of many higher offensive strains within the league, however it might fall out of the highest 5.
McCaffrey is among the riskiest picks a fantasy supervisor could make early in drafts as a result of he has a wider vary of outcomes than most gamers. While anybody might get injured, McCaffrey’s repeated accidents make him extra of an damage threat. Even if he doesn’t undergo one other damage, the 49ers might contemplate limiting his workload, or the accidents might have stopped him from being as elite, which naturally occurs with age anyway. He might additionally dominate leagues if he returns to his normal kind.
WR D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears (ADP: 5.01)
DJ Moore spent the primary 5 years of his profession with the Carolina Panthers. From 2019 to 2021, he constantly gained 1,150-1,200 receiving yards however secured solely 4 touchdowns every season. In 2022, the Panthers used Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker at quarterback all through the season, and so they mixed for lower than 3,000 passing yards, so Moore gained solely 888 yards. However, he caught seven landing passes, regardless of the crew having solely 16 passing touchdowns. He constantly completed within the WR16-WR25 vary, making him a dependable starter however not among the many league’s elite.
The Panthers traded Moore to the Chicago Bears in 2023 as a part of the deal that landed them Bryce Young. This paired Moore with Justin Fields, with whom he loved the perfect season of his profession. His PFF receiving grade, receiving yards, yards per route run and receiving touchdowns have been all profession highs. He was constantly robust at avoiding tackles early in his NFL profession, and whereas that took a step again in his later years with the Panthers, his price rebounded with Chicago.
The Bears made a number of modifications on offense in 2024, that includes new quarterback Caleb Williams, new vast receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. They ran extra passing performs, however Moore’s goal price decreased barely, resulting in a really related variety of targets and receptions as in 2023. While he remained the crew’s X receiver, his common goal depth dropped significantly, as did his deep goal price. This left him averaging greater than 20 fewer receiving yards per recreation, simply from the totally different position. His end-zone goal price additionally decreased, resulting in fewer touchdowns. After a top-10 end in 2023, Moore returned to being a dependable WR2, as he was with the Panthers.
New Bears head coach Ben Johnson is a constructive power for the crew’s offense. His Detroit Lions ran numerous performs and scored numerous factors. However, he constantly runs greater than the typical crew, which is able to seemingly result in a lower in routes per recreation. His offenses have had no drawback concentrating on different positions, which is able to keep true this season after Chicago’s first-round draft funding in Colston Loveland.
Johnson’s Lions had a singular trio of vast receivers, together with a tall, possession-centric X receiver with a low goal share in Tim Patrick (and beforehand Josh Reynolds), a speedy Z receiver in Jameson Williams and a slot receiver who may also play on the skin in Amon-Ra St. Brown.
The Bears’ receivers are typically greater than the Lions’. The closest match is Odunze at X, as he’s the tallest, greatest and slowest of the trio. Moore has historically performed on the skin as an X or Z receiver, and Burden is extra skilled within the slot from his time at Missouri, however there may be no less than an opportunity their roles will flip this season. Burden is the quickest and lightest of the three, which finest matches Williams. Moore is a bit sooner than St. Brown and barely bigger, however he’s the closest comparability to St. Brown.
The finest likelihood for Moore to maximise his fantasy worth may very well be by studying St. Brown’s position within the offense. However, given the variations within the Bears’ receivers in comparison with the Lions’, Johnson may reinvent his passing recreation to higher play to his gamers’ strengths.
Assuming Caleb Williams doesn’t undergo an damage that prices him a lot of the season, this would be the first time in Moore’s NFL profession with a quarterback who performs no less than 400 snaps in back-to-back years. Moore is often a secure WR2 possibility, however many variables might affect his fantasy worth in 2025. He might play the slot position in Ben Johnson’s offense with an improved Caleb Williams, giving him top-10 potential.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 7.02)
Waddle was the sixth total choose of the 2021 draft. He instantly turned the highest vast receiver on a Dolphins depth chart that had DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson and Mack Hollins. His 7.0-yard common depth of goal was the bottom of his profession, resulting in a low 9.8 yards per reception. He earned 104 receptions for 1,015 yards. He completed fifteenth in fantasy factors per recreation.
Injuries began to turn out to be an issue for Waddle at first of the 2022 season. He began the season within the damage report as a consequence of a quadricep damage, spent two weeks off the report after which spent almost a month with a groin damage, over a month with a shoulder damage and per week with a fibula damage earlier than he was listed once more with a shoulder damage adopted by an ankle damage to finish the season. In 2023, it was an indirect, adopted by a concussion, which value him a recreation. He returned and was comparatively wholesome for a month however then handled again, knee and ankle accidents that value him the ultimate two video games of the common season.
Last season was the worst of Waddle’s profession, however he was comparatively wholesome all through. He caught 5 passes for 109 yards in Week 1. He averaged 32 yards per recreation over the next 5 video games with Tua Tagovailoa out. He confirmed up on the damage report for per week as a consequence of a quadricep damage, however he nonetheless struggled for one more month with 34 yards per recreation throughout a four-game stretch. He lastly returned to kind for 3 weeks, ending with 21 receptions for 296 and a landing over three weeks. He suffered a knee damage within the following recreation, costing him two video games, after which returned to a quiet recreation. While Waddle didn’t seem on the damage report almost as a lot in 2024 because the earlier two seasons, his NGS Tracking Data suggests his pace was slower final season in comparison with earlier years.
Despite the accidents and low stage of play final season, he’s nonetheless among the many higher receivers as soon as the ball is in his palms. His 5.8 yards after the catch per catch over the past three years is second-best amongst all vast receivers. This has helped him acquire no less than 10 yards on 69.3% of his receptions, which can be the second-highest price.
His major competitors for targets stays Tyreek Hill, though there have been commerce rumors on and off all through the season. Waddle is across the age when vast receivers peak, whereas Hill is across the age when vast receivers retire, so it’s doable that Waddle turns into the crew’s goal chief. The Dolphins have tried out a number of totally different vast receivers for the third, fourth and fifth spots on the depth chart throughout Mike McDaniel’s time period. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine seems to be taking that third position this season, regardless of competitors from Malik Washington. None of them will threaten Waddle’s goal price, and one might want to step up if Hill is traded.
Waddle is a top-10 fantasy vast receiver at his finest, however he had a down season final 12 months, and there’s no clear motive why. It was most likely the cumulative impact of accidents over a number of years. If that’s the case, perhaps he’ll be again to regular subsequent 12 months, but it surely’s additionally doable he’ll by no means be again to being the identical participant.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (ADP: 10.05)
The Patriots modified teaching staffs and gave Stevenson a brand new backup in Antonio Gibson for 2024. He began the season because the clear focus of the offense, ending with 46 carries for 201 yards and two touchdowns within the first two weeks. However, he fumbled 4 occasions within the first 4 weeks. He didn’t begin in Week 5 however ended up operating for 89 yards and a landing anyway. He was inactive for Week 6 with a foot sprain.
The Patriots eased him in a single week after which went again to relying closely on him, as he acquired no less than 15 touches per recreation and completed three video games with no less than 20 carries. However, he averaged 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in every of his first six video games again from damage. Stevenson began enjoying higher for a three-game stretch in December, ending with 73-94 yards per recreation, however he additionally fumbled twice throughout that stretch. The Patriots have been blown out 7-40 the next week, and so they turned extra towards Gibson once more as a consequence of Stevenson’s fumbles. Stevenson was one of many veterans the Patriots opted to not play in Week 18.
Stevenson didn’t have an issue with fumbles within the first three years of his profession, and most of his fumbles occurred within the first 4 weeks final season. Fumbles aren’t constant from one season to the following, in order that shouldn’t be a serious drawback this season.
The Patriots retained Antonio Gibson, who’s skilled on each early downs and passing downs, but in addition added TreVeyon Henderson with the thirty eighth choose within the NFL draft. Henderson was the passing down again for Ohio State final season. Henderson has been praised for his receiving and go safety, and he’ll seemingly take a lot of the third-down work away from Stevenson. There is a good likelihood that Henderson may even take numerous the two-minute drill work, which may even lower into Henderson’s worth.
Josh McDaniels is the brand new Patriots offensive coordinator after spending two years because the Las Vegas Raiders head coach, over a decade because the Patriots’ offensive coordinator underneath Bill Belichick, a quick stint because the Denver Broncos head coach from 2009 to 2010 and serving because the St. Louis Rams‘ offensive coordinator in 2011.
Throughout McDaniels’ teaching profession, he has constantly utilized a committee at operating again. In 18 years as a head coach or offensive coordinator, there has solely been one season the place the again main the crew in carries was additionally the again receiving essentially the most third-down snaps. The exception was in 2011 with three-time Pro Bowl operating again Steven Jackson. His final operating again was Josh Jacobs, who performed extra third-down snaps earlier than McDaniels arrived and after McDaniels left than when McDaniels was there.
McDaniels has usually turned to three-back committees. This included his final season with the Patriots, the place Stevenson and Harris each performed on early downs and Bolden on third downs. The excellent case for Stevenson is that he’s in a two-back committee with Henderson, the place Stevenson is the early down again and Henderson will get the passing-down work, however Stevenson might have to rotate with Gibson in the identical manner he as soon as needed to rotate with Harris.
Stevenson’s speeding manufacturing depends closely on his offensive line, extra so than almost another operating again. He averages 8.0 yards per keep on completely blocked runs and three.1 on non-perfectly blocked runs. All operating backs are higher with higher blocking, however his yards per carry hole on the 2 is among the many largest within the league. His 3.2 yards after contact per try rank seventh-best amongst operating backs, suggesting he’s a greater again than his current stats counsel, however his offensive strains have been the issue. The Patriots’ offensive line was within the high 10 in his rookie season when he ran for 4.6 yards per carry. They ranked on the backside of the league final season, main Stevenson to common 3.9 yards per carry. This left his fantasy worth comparatively low regardless of a career-high in speeding makes an attempt per recreation.
While the Patriots had the bottom crew run-blocking grade final season, they’ve taken some steps to enhance. This consists of deciding on Will Campbell with the fourth total choose and bringing in veterans Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury. Both Moses and Mike Onwenu had down years final season. It appears unlikely the road will likely be common subsequent 12 months, however the Patriots have hopefully carried out sufficient to not be in final once more. Even a small distinction might result in an enormous distinction in Stevenson’s speeding manufacturing.
While some are assuming Stevenson will likely be an entire non-factor after the TreVeyon Henderson choice, Stevenson ought to nonetheless obtain double-digit carries every week and be simpler on these runs than final season. However, his receiving work may not be sufficient to make him somebody value beginning each week. He may very well be very recreation script dependent, making him somebody to start out if the Patriots are anticipated to win, and somebody to take a seat if not.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 15.08)
Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy worth peaked in 2022, ending with a career-high 25 passing touchdowns and a career-high 5 speeding touchdowns. This led him to complete twelfth in fantasy factors per recreation. His high quality of play improved in 2023, and he dropped again to go extra usually. This led to extra passing yards, however he threw fewer touchdowns and ran for fewer touchdowns. This helped him end among the many top-18 fantasy quarterbacks extra usually however among the many top-12 fantasy quarterbacks much less usually, and in the end decreased his fantasy worth.
Lawrence’s fantasy worth continued to dip in 2024. His per-game stats are considerably deceiving, as he had a recreation with solely 10 passing makes an attempt, however he was held underneath 200 passing yards in 5 different video games. He failed to succeed in 200 yards solely twice in 2023. Two of those video games have been from a really low passing try whole, however there was one recreation the place he had 38 makes an attempt and 178 yards. These video games largely occurred earlier than Brian Thomas Jr. absolutely broke out and whereas Evan Engram was injured.
Lawrence suffered a shoulder damage in Week 9, which he additionally suffered on the finish of 2023. He returned briefly in Week 13, however he suffered a concussion and didn’t return that season. Throughout Lawrence’s final three seasons, he’s been a high-risk, high-reward quarterback. His 1.8 big-time throws per recreation over the past two seasons are the fourth-most amongst quarterbacks, however he’s additionally had one of many highest turnover-worthy throw charges.
Lawrence is studying a brand new offensive system this 12 months with Liam Coen as his new head coach. One massive motive for optimism for Lawrence is how effectively Baker Mayfield performed final season in Coen’s system. Mayfield acquired a 72.8 passing grade in 2023, which may be very similar to Lawrence in current seasons, and Mayfield’s passing recreation jumped to 82.4 in 2024. Similarly, his fantasy factors per recreation jumped from 16.7 to 22.5. Lawrence has typically run the ball extra usually than Mayfield, so there may be room for Lawrence’s fantasy manufacturing to be even greater.
Lawrence’s time to throw was constantly low throughout his time underneath Doug Pederson, however his common depth of goal skyrocketed, resulting in decrease accuracy charges. We ought to count on his common goal depth to lower significantly. Lawrence’s deep ball accuracy over the past three years was within the backside quarter of the league, however he completed within the high quarter of the league on brief passes. The change in offensive philosophy needs to be a fantastic asset to his fantasy worth.
The Jaguars have largely reworked their receiver room. Jacksonville traded as much as the second total choose for Travis Hunter and signed Dyami Brown to be their subject stretcher in free company. The Jaguars have tried a number of veteran vast receivers to assist Lawrence, however the younger duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter needs to be the perfect pair of Lawrence’s profession. Jacksonville moved on from Lawrence’s security web of Evan Engram, however Brenton Strange had a really related receiving grade final season. Strange is one other ascending participant who ought to fill his position respectably.
Trevor Lawrence is a high-upside backup possibility in single quarterback leagues, and he, at finest, can turn out to be your normal starter and, at worst, be an ample fill-in throughout bye weeks. In superflex leagues, he’s a considerably dangerous second possibility.
