Fantasy Football IDP: Rookie security prospect mannequin

The high security spot in 2025 is as shut because it will get: Both Malaki Starks and Nick Emmanwori share an an identical prospect rating among the many high ninety fifth percentile on this mannequin.
Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts shouldn’t be neglected: Watts isn’t more likely to go first-round as two of his friends are, however he boasts quite a lot of encouraging metrics to be in that dialog as a participant to observe for IDP.
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NFL draft season is in full swing, which naturally comes with a plethora of the way to judge potential expertise popping out of faculty with the potential to translate to the subsequent stage. This article sequence isn’t any totally different, as we’ll add a fantasy soccer spin to the analysis course of to determine which incoming prospects have a shot to turn into fantasy-relevant early on of their NFL careers.

The ultimate place group that this mannequin sequence will cowl is the safeties, which is commonly one of many extra unstable positions for IDP as there may be a lot dependence on utilization and massive performs, which tends to fluctuate year-to-year for many gamers. This mannequin has dug into the info to kind out what issues and doesn’t for NFL security prospects and the way successfully these items translate to IDP. As was the case with all the opposite positions coated, there may be not one singular metric that can inform us who can have success and who received’t, and the mix of key metrics tends to have a lot better predictive success.

For the protection place, in no specific order, we’re taking a look at general PFF grade, protection grade, run protection grade, play-on-pass charge, draft capital and stage of competitors, amongst a couple of others.

Keys:

The prospect pool for this mannequin consists of 347 previous security prospects courting again to 2016.
26 safeties drafted since 2018 have turn into a top-12 IDP finisher for his or her place at the very least as soon as (7.5%).
41 safeties drafted since 2018 have turn into a top-24 IDP finisher for his or her place at the very least as soon as (11.8%).
56 safeties drafted since 2018 have turn into a top-36 IDP finisher for his or her place at the very least as soon as (16.1%).
This is a crucial context when understanding hit charges as many extra prospects won’t turn into fantasy-relevant than most, given such a big pool of gamers.
However, utilizing this mannequin, the upper the prospect rating, the higher the success charge can be for every prospect, as highlighted beneath.

With all this in thoughts, it’s time to take a look at this 12 months’s edge prospects to determine our future IDP contributors. It must also be famous that these scores mustn’t essentially be used a lot as your rankings as they need to be extra of a information towards the standard of the participant. Draft capital and touchdown spot can and can play an enormous a part of precise rankings.

The 2025 Safety Class

MALAKI STARKS, GEORGIA

Starks is projected to be the primary security taken on this 12 months’s NFL draft, although that hole could also be closing popping out of the mix. Starks’ rating on this mannequin ranks within the high cohort the place top-12 IDP security turns into the best risk, as highlighted above.
While most high-end safeties have above-average profession protection grades, Starks separates himself a bit on account of his work as a run defender, the place he’s earned a 90.3 profession run-defense grade, which ranks 92nd percentile amongst security prospects since 2018.
Compared to different safeties who have been drafted in both Round 1 or 2 of the NFL Draft, there have ever been eight safeties with a 90.0 or increased run-defense grade for his or her school careers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Jalen Pitre, Brian Branch, Taylor Rapp, Jeremy Chinn and Juan Thornhill.
All apart from Thornhill have completed high 12 in IDP for his or her place at the very least as soon as to this point (85.7%), placing Starks in nice firm of which to be a component.
Even as a participant who profiles as extra of a deep security within the NFL, a number of of these comparables additionally performed from extra of a deep alignment, so he’ll nonetheless be a participant we need to goal in IDP rookie drafts, the place acceptable.

NICK EMMANWORI, SOUTH CAROLINA

Emmanwori has slowly crept up the consensus boards after a formidable mix to the purpose the place he may push to be the primary security drafted, relying on what groups are in search of.
Emmanwori even scored identically to Starks on this mannequin, giving him an identical constructive IDP outlook as he heads into the draft.
While Starks earned higher marks as a run defender, Emmanwori earned barely higher marks in protection and general whereas additionally doing a barely higher job at getting his arms on passes.
The huge distinction between Starks and Emmanwori, nonetheless, is that Emmanwori figures to play a lot nearer to the road of scrimmage, spending 43% of his school snaps within the field – the best charge of any top-200 security prospect on this 12 months’s class.
While that is naturally going to make him a fascinating IDP prospect, his 96th percentile profile doubtless places him excessive as arguably the highest IDP security possibility on this class.

XAVIER WATTS, NOTRE DAME

As issues stand proper now, there hasn’t been a better rating between a trio of prospects in a single class close to the highest of this mannequin since 2018, as Watts is available in proper behind each Starks and Emmanwori, arguably making this probably the most top-heavy class lately for IDP.
All three guys have a powerful shot to be weekly IDP starters, and for Watts particularly, whereas he isn’t more likely to go within the first spherical, he does personal a greater general and protection grade than the opposite two.
Watts additionally has a extra supreme cut up of deep (43%) and field (30%) snaps for his profession, giving him a wider vary of potential matches in numerous defensive schemes.
Watts additionally separates himself from the first-round safeties a bit as a result of his play on move charge is the most effective on this class for top-200 prospects, which is how he got here up with a class-leading 13 profession interceptions.
While occurring Day 2 of the NFL Draft versus the primary spherical is probably going going to maintain Watts from being as fascinating for IDP as Starks or Emmanwori, a number of ninety fifth percentile scorers additionally went in that vary who discovered high-end IDP success, together with Xavier McKinney, Brian Branch, Jalen Pitre, Jaquan Brisker, Grant Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr., Taylor Rapp and Justin Reid.
That creates a 57% success charge for Round 2 safeties who scored at the very least ninety fifth percentile on this mannequin, whereas 4 extra (Richie Grant, Trevon Moehrig, Jevon Holland, Tyler Nubin) have completed at the very least top-24, enhancing that hit charge to 86%.
Only two others (Lewis Cine, Juan Thornhill) did not crack even the highest 36 IDP safeties to this point.
Watts’ outlook is a powerful one and ought to be locked in because the S3 for this class heading into the NFL Draft.

ANDREW MUKUBA, TEXAS

As we head into the third spherical of the NFL Draft, the prospect scores proceed to line up with Mukuba coming in as each the S4 within the mannequin and in accordance with the consensus rankings, which isn’t all the time the case.
As a third-round decide, Mukuba’s IDP impression won’t be felt instantly in his profession, as there are a number of previous prospects who went third spherical or later within the NFL Draft that we’re nonetheless ready on to hit for IDP.
Other Round 3 draft picks who scored at the very least ninetieth percentile on this mannequin embrace Julian Blackmon (2020), Tykee Smith (2024), Jordan Battle (2023), Kamren Kinchens (2024), Calen Bullock (2024), Mike Edwards (2019), Nick Cross (2022), Tanner Muse (2020), Tarvarius Moore (2018), Antoine Brooks Jr. (2020), Kerby Joseph (2022), Ashtyn Davis (2020), Divine Deablo (2021) and Armani Watts (2018).
Only Blackmon, Edwards, Cross, and Joseph have completed as at the very least top-36 IDP scorers, and solely Cross reached the top-12.
Each of these gamers who’ve discovered at the very least top-36 success took at the very least three seasons to get there – 5 for Blackmon.
It wouldn’t be a shock to see Mukuba comply with an identical long-term path whereas on the similar time creating optimism for the likes of Tykee Smith, Jordan Battle, Kamren Kinchens and Calen Bullock, who all have fewer than three NFL seasons underneath their belts.

KEVIN WINSTON JR., PENN STATE

Winston isn’t too dissimilar from the beforehand talked about Mukuba as a projected third-round decide who scored just below him within the prospect mannequin.
Winston stands out as a run defender, proudly owning the most effective profession run-defense grade (94.3) amongst over 400 security prospects since 2018, which is a really troublesome quantity to attain for a participant who spent 59% of his profession defensive snaps lined up deep. It’s additionally price noting that Winston solely has 694 whole defensive snaps for his profession, so there’s a really small pattern measurement to think about.
Strong run-defense grades alone aren’t sufficient to create pleasure for a prospect, and whereas the high-end performers who have been drafted within the first two rounds have been highlighted earlier with Malaki Starks, including the third-round prospects is a little more hit or miss, which can also be simply the character of being a 3rd spherical (or later) draft decide:
There have been 24 previous prospects from this mannequin that have been drafted third spherical or later and had a run-defense grade above 90.0, main to simply two top-12 finishers for IDP – one among which was Kyzir White, who did in order a linebacker. There have been solely two different top-36 finishers from that cohort (Andrew Wingard and Damar Hamlin), creating only a 16.7% success charge at finest and with an much more restricted ceiling.
Winston remains to be a stable prospect and in a great vary to be IDP-relevant, however sadly, after diving deeper, it received’t essentially be as a result of he’s an elite run defender alone.

LATHAN RANSOM, OHIO STATE

Ransom is true there along with his fellow potential third-rounders and is precisely tied with Winston in prospect rating.
Ransom is extra skilled as a starter than Winston, taking part in 5 years at Ohio State and over 2,400 defensive snaps.
Ransom has spent about 30% of his profession snaps within the field, which is probably the most for these potential third-rounders, and he boasts a powerful run-defense grade, which is promising contemplating he was requested to assist extra in that space.
Ransom can be grouped along with his third-round friends as a participant who, with out a great touchdown spot, could take a while to make an impression for IDP primarily based on the historic comparisons for gamers on this vary, as highlighted when overlaying Mukuba above.

BILLY BOWMAN JR., OKLAHOMA

Bowman is the place we see the primary important hole between prospects, as he is not only the primary prospect coated who is predicted to go on Day 3, however his prospect rating is the primary that doesn’t essentially have encouraging comparables.
As all the time, this doesn’t imply that Bowman can’t or received’t succeed within the NFL or for IDP, however because the hit charges will level out, he’s simply in that extra unlikely territory.
41 prospects scored between the seventieth and eightieth percentile on this mannequin – seven of them have delivered a top-12 IDP end for his or her place (17%), 10 have been at the very least high 24 (24%) and 13 have been at the very least high 36 (32%).
Four of the seven top-12 finishers have been taken on Day 3 of the NFL Draft (Kamren Curl, Donovan Wilson, Quentin Lake, Josh Metellus), so once more, there are paths the place Bowman can discover success, although he’s additionally the lowest-rated prospect of that bunch as nicely, so the chances are in opposition to him.

JONAS SANKER, VIRGINIA

As far as Day 3 gamers to guess on, Sanker stands out as one of many higher choices for IDP primarily based on his rating touchdown among the many eighty fifth percentile of prospects.
Sanker spent 41% of his defensive snaps within the field for his school profession, which allowed him to be a extremely environment friendly tackler for the place (ninety fifth percentile) and first to the ball most of the time, rating 86th percentile amongst prospects in first contact charge.
For IDP managers honing in on guys that can doubtless play across the line of scrimmage, Sanker is a reputation to observe come draft day ought to he land on a skinny depth chart with an opportunity to begin within the close to future, even when not instantly in Year 1.