- George Pickens‘ fantasy outlook has improved: The Dallas Cowboys have traded for George Pickens, who will now get to play in an offense that’s higher suited to a second fantasy choice to thrive.
- Steelers will depend on younger receivers in Pickens’ absence: With Pickens off the roster, gamers like Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson ought to see elevated alternatives in Pittsburgh.
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Estimated studying time: 5 minutes
The Dallas Cowboys are working to finalize a commerce for Pittsburgh Steelers vast receiver George Pickens, in accordance with ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The deal, which is predicted to be accomplished later as we speak, is reported to contain a third-round decide in subsequent yr’s draft and a decide swap.
At his peak, Pickens ranked as a top-30 fantasy vast receiver, and this transfer reshapes the receiving panorama for each groups.
The impression on George Pickens
Pickens completed as a top-30 fantasy vast receiver in 2023, however he struggled to copy that success in 2024 beneath Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense. His goal price truly elevated from 19.3% to 22.9%, however a drop in routes per sport led to fewer receiving yards general. Smith’s scheme had a extra dramatic impression on the remainder of Pittsburgh’s receiving corps, as his offense sometimes helps just one fantasy-relevant vast receiver. Steelers vast receivers noticed simply 224 complete targets final season — the fewest of any crew.
The Steelers’ commerce for D.Okay. Metcalf this spring additional sophisticated the goal distribution. Keeping each Metcalf and Pickens would have made it troublesome for both to stay fantasy-relevant with such restricted quantity, which contributed to Pickens rating forty first in my redraft rankings. Now in Dallas, Pickens will nonetheless face competitors for targets with CeeDee Lamb, however there are much more alternatives accessible. Cowboys vast receivers noticed 378 targets in 2024, the third-most within the league.
The key variable for Pickens’ fantasy upside can be Dak Prescott’s efficiency. Prescott has supported two fantasy-relevant vast receivers prior to now — Lamb and Amari Cooper in 2021, and Michael Gallup and Cooper in 2019. However, Prescott’s PFF passing grade has dipped in two of the previous three seasons, and he’s coming off an harm. Pickens has a path again to top-30 fantasy worth, however provided that Prescott returns to type.
The impression on the Pittsburgh Steelers gamers
D.Okay. Metcalf now tasks as the first goal in Pittsburgh, with little competitors for quantity. Still, a decline in fantasy manufacturing from his Seattle days is probably going, as Arthur Smith’s offensive system has traditionally restricted vast receiver output.
A.J. Brown averaged 71 receiving yards per sport beneath Smith in Tennessee, then jumped to 86 per sport with the Eagles. Drake London additionally improved after Smith’s departure, going from 53 to 75 yards per sport. Even so, Metcalf is in a greater place to stay a fantasy starter in Pittsburgh than he would have been sharing restricted targets with George Pickens.
Metcalf’s departure additionally creates alternatives for Pittsburgh’s youthful receivers. Calvin Austin III topped 60 receiving yards in three video games between Weeks 12 and 16 final season, benefiting from elevated snaps on the skin. He’s averaged 1.51 yards per route run when lined up vast, in comparison with simply 0.93 from the slot, and he’s anticipated to take over because the second outdoors receiver reverse Metcalf.
The Steelers spent a third-round decide on Roman Wilson within the 2024 NFL Draft, however he performed solely 5 snaps as a rookie because of harm. If wholesome, he’s the seemingly favourite to step in because the crew’s slot receiver. Pittsburgh additionally added veterans Robert Woods and Ben Skowronek for depth, both of whom may see important enjoying time if Wilson isn’t prepared.
If Aaron Rodgers joins the crew, he could push for upgrades at vast receiver, however viable choices are restricted. Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen and Tyler Boyd stay unsigned, however every is 30 or older — a part of the explanation they’re nonetheless accessible. Rodgers may additionally advocate for Allen Lazard, although Lazard is presently penciled in because the WR2 on the Jets’ equally skinny depth chart.
The impression on the Dallas Cowboys gamers
CeeDee Lamb stays the clear No. 1 vast receiver in Dallas, and this transfer shouldn’t considerably impression his goal share. Brandin Cooks’ departure to the New Orleans Saints vacates 50 targets, creating room for George Pickens to step in. Depth gamers like Jalen Brooks (30 targets), Jonathan Mingo (15) and Ryan Flournoy (14) at the moment are anticipated to see minimal enjoying time with stronger choices forward of them.
The participant most negatively impacted in fantasy phrases is tight finish Jake Ferguson. He completed second on the crew in targets final season and had been positioned as one of many prime backup tight finish choices in fantasy drafts. Pickens’ arrival limits Ferguson’s upside, as he’ll seemingly fall to 3rd within the goal pecking order.
This transfer advantages Dak Prescott, giving him one other dependable possibility within the passing sport. While he’s unlikely to be drafted as a top-12 fantasy quarterback, Prescott is firmly within the combine amongst backup choices in single-quarterback leagues and must be a starter in superflex codecs.
