You could not understand it by taking a look at sticker costs in grocery aisles, however Thanksgiving dinner is extra reasonably priced than it has been in years.
The prices of this 12 months’s vacation feast — estimated at $58.08 for a 10-person gathering, or $5.81 a head — dropped 5% since final 12 months, the bottom degree since 2021, in line with a nationwide survey of grocery costs by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents hundreds of thousands of U.S. farmers. But the image improves additional when adjusted for inflation.
“If your greenback had the identical general buying energy as a client in 1984 … this may be the least costly Thanksgiving meal within the 39-year historical past of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, aside from the outlier of 2020,” the authors wrote.
For loads of households, it doesn’t really feel that approach.
A defining characteristic of the post-pandemic restoration, and the 2024 election, is the divergence between Americans’ bitter views of the economic system and its underlying power. Many buyers understandably give attention to worth ranges — the greenback worth of the issues they purchase — moderately than these purchases’ inflation-adjusted, or “actual,” prices. The latter is the true take a look at of affordability, because it displays an usually underappreciated piece of the inflation puzzle: wage inflation.
And certainly, whereas Thanksgiving meals costs are up 19% since 2019, in line with the AFBF, federal knowledge exhibits median family wages rising by about 25% throughout the identical interval.
What’s extra, “the common American additionally has to work fewer hours to purchase the identical meal than in earlier years,” the report added. “Wages continued to develop sooner following the COVID-19 pandemic, whilst inflation cooled. Because common wages rose 4% from 2023 to 2024, it took 9% much less work time for us to pay for this 12 months’s Thanksgiving dinner.”
Of course, pay beneficial properties haven’t boosted all employees evenly, and long-term bills like housing prices and little one care proceed to squeeze households up and down the revenue spectrum. While client confidence has jumped in latest weeks, it stays under pre-pandemic ranges.
Still, the AFBF report mentioned, “even with the lowering buying energy of the greenback, a number of the items in our basket are at their long-term lowest costs, even when it comes to the ‘present greenback’ worth.”
Turkey, as an illustration, is 6% cheaper than final 12 months, regardless of chicken flu knocking out a portion of turkey inventories. Tighter availability normally drives up costs, however Americans are consuming about 1 pound much less of turkey per individual annually, decreasing demand by greater than sufficient to offset the availability hit.
Certain processed meals that will land on Thanksgiving tables are dearer. Dinner rolls and cubed stuffing are every promoting for 8% greater than a 12 months in the past. On the flip aspect, candy potatoes and entire milk have seen the steepest annual worth drops, falling 26% and 14%, respectively. While recent cranberry costs have climbed 12%, reversing an 18% decline the 12 months earlier than, they continue to be at their lowest degree since 2015 — and when adjusted for inflation, they’re on par with costs again in 1987, the report mentioned.
These affordability beneficial properties are excellent news for inflation-weary buyers, a lot of whom are more and more centered on worth this 12 months. Major client manufacturers have been chasing bargain-hungry prospects with worth cuts and promotions for months. Some, corresponding to Walmart and TJ Maxx, are seeing larger success than others, like Target.
The wave of discounting has grow to be extra aggressive heading into the vacations, and grocery retailers aren’t any exception. Food eaten at residence was simply 1.1% pricier final month than the identical time final 12 months, in contrast with the two.6% common run-up in client costs general.
Both Target and Aldi have rolled out Thanksgiving offers priced decrease than final 12 months. Target is providing a $20 Thanksgiving meal for 4, together with a small turkey, canned greens and stovetop stuffing combine. Aldi has a $47 meal package deal for 10 individuals, which it’s promoting as decrease than its 2019 costs. Walmart is selling an “inflation-free Thanksgiving” meal of 29 gadgets that may serve eight individuals for $56. Amazon Fresh is providing Thanksgiving reductions on turkey, sides and desserts, feeding six individuals for lower than $5 apiece, plus additional financial savings for Prime members.
The flurry of promotions creates loads of alternatives to comparability store, specialists say.
“I’d simply advise customers to check out what these meals are comprised of,” mentioned Robin Wenzel, head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. “Don’t be afraid to take a look at a number of retailers.”
Some Thanksgiving meal packages supply extra elements, however that would imply getting ready extra dishes from scratch. Others have fewer gadgets however require much less prep work. “Thanksgiving in lots of households is so private,” Wenzel mentioned, and the vary of affords permits customers to tailor their grocery buying to their gatherings.
One cost-saving technique is to purchase shops’ personal “personal label” manufacturers, which may save buyers $17 on a Thanksgiving menu for 10, in line with Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Experts at Consumer Reports additionally advocate enrolling in grocery store loyalty and cash-back packages for additional financial savings, which frequently include conveniences corresponding to digital coupons inside the shops’ apps.
Ultimately, how a lot individuals pay for Thanksgiving dinner will even depend upon geography. Households within the West, the priciest area for the vacation’s groceries, will spend about 18% extra on common than these dwelling within the South, the place they’re least expensive, the AFBF estimates.