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Estimated studying time: 5 minutes
Fantasy and DFS fans, bettors and analysts typically depend on a big selection of statistics and fashions to achieve a aggressive edge. These vary from fundamental field rating stats to superior metrics obtainable in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is at all times room for brand spanking new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that provides a number of benefits over WOPR. Click right here for an in-depth clarification of the mannequin, my course of and its benefits.
Week 11 Recap
The Week 11 outcomes have been a combined bag of boom-or-bust performances. Jameson Williams and Jauan Jennings have been standout successes from the mannequin, however few others delivered distinctive outings.
As I famous in final week’s “Coach, I Was Open” breakdown, Caleb Williams has continued to wrestle with focusing on the optimum receivers, a pattern that persevered in Week 11.
Boutte noticed targets for the fourth consecutive sport however couldn’t put collectively a whole efficiency.
Jaylen Waddle stays caught in a rut and will by no means eclipse 8.0 fantasy factors once more.
Calvin Austin III had one deep goal however did not haul it in. Still, figuring out two top-10 receivers out of eight is a stable lead to my guide.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 12
As a fast reminder of how regression-to-the-mean fashions work, I predict a participant’s FPpG primarily based on their three-week PWOPR (defined extra right here).
PWOPR is far more secure than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future efficiency. To establish potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the participant’s predicted FPpG from their precise FPpG. Players with PWOPR and a residual of -3 or decrease seem on this checklist. Players will proceed to seem till one of many following happens:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with an enormous sport
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their anticipated FPpG
As is normal with regression-to-the-mean fashions, sure gamers have a tendency to seem repeatedly for numerous causes, resembling poor quarterback play or general offensive struggles.
In this mannequin particularly, the presence of an alpha extensive receiver (or tight finish) can push different gamers onto the checklist. Take DeVonta Smith, as an illustration. With A.J. Brown as the point of interest of the Eagles’ passing assault, each goal pressured to Brown—whether or not it’s determination or not—is one much less alternative for Smith, even when he’s open and able to make a play.
Now, let’s assessment some names on the Week 12 checklist:
Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore: The Bears’ tandem is on the checklist once more. Allen has been averaging eight targets per week during the last three weeks, whereas Moore has been averaging 7.3. Both are stable numbers, however the Bears’ passing offense has been lackluster, to say the least. The Bears play the Vikings this week, who run the No. 1 MOFO (center of the sphere open) price within the NFL during the last month however have the ninth-worst crew PFF protection grade over the identical timeframe. This is an above-average matchup for many extensive receivers, however:
- Williams has a base PFF Passing grade of 61.4 (ranks 32nd out of 40 within the NFL (min. 100 dropbacks)
- Williams’ grade drops to 54.4 towards MOFO, which ranks 29th out of 29 quarterbacks (min. 100 dropbacks vs MOFO)
DeVonta Smith: The Eagles receiver faces a reasonably common defensive matchup towards the Rams this week. The Rams rank in the course of the pack throughout most defensive metrics and make use of a roughly equal break up of MOFO and MOFC coverages. However, FantasyExecs ranks them as a top-six matchup for extensive receivers in fantasy factors allowed, which bodes properly for Smith and teammate A.J. Brown.
Romeo Doubs: Doubs will go up towards the 49ers, a crew that often permits single-coverage conditions. Doubs leads the Packers in goal share towards single protection, which suggests the potential for a breakout efficiency.
Michael Pittman Jr.: The Colts tackle the Lions, who’re coming off a dominant win over the Jaguars. This might play to Pittman’s benefit in fantasy, as Indianapolis would possibly spend a lot of the sport trailing—DraftKings lists the Colts as 7.5-point underdogs. While the Lions permit loads of single-coverage alternatives, Pittman has struggled in these conditions this season, with a Twenty fifth-percentile PFF grade towards such seems. Still, quantity issues most in fantasy, and a sport script that includes the Colts enjoying from behind might present Pittman ample alternatives.
Kayshon Boutte: The Patriots wideout has been persistently incomes targets, with six in every of the final 4 video games. Boutte excels towards man protection, posting grades within the seventieth percentile or larger in such conditions.
Noah Brown
Brown faces a depleted Cowboys protection in a sport the place the Commanders are closely favored—Washington is a ten.5-point favourite, per DraftKings. The Cowboys have run the eighth-most MOFO protection within the NFL over the previous month whereas incomes the fifth-worst crew PFF protection grade. Brown has the third-most targets on Washington towards MOFO however solely the sixth-best PFF grade towards such seems.
Jalen Tolbert: Tolbert represents the Cowboys’ aspect of their matchup towards the Commanders. Dallas is prone to undertake a pass-heavy sport plan. As seen in Week 11, the Cowboys received’t hesitate to throw the ball 50 occasions if needed.
Calvin Austin III: Austin has been stable at getting open, however the Steelers’ run-first offense and George Pickens’ heavy goal share restrict his alternatives. However, the Browns might provide Austin an opportunity to shine. Cleveland has the third-worst PFF crew protection grade during the last month and has run the fifth-most MOFC protection throughout that span.
Tre Tucker: Tucker, a frequent look on this checklist, posted a 90% snap share final week and has persistently proven a capability to get open. Despite this, a breakout appears unlikely, with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers commanding a lot of the Raiders’ offense.
Route-based heroes from final week who have been on bye:
Malik Nabers: The rookie will get a brand new quarterback, for higher or worse, and can play in a sport the place the Giants might need to go the ball very often. New York is a 5.5-point underdog towards Tampa Bay, per DraftKings.
Michael Wilson: Wilson attracts single-coverage scenario, however as we’ve mentioned earlier than, a scarcity of common go quantity shall be an issue for fantasy success.
As at all times, not each participant on this checklist will ship, however a number of will seemingly exceed their common PPR from the previous three weeks. Just a few might even have explosive video games.
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