Fantasy and DFS fans, bettors and analysts typically depend on a wide selection of statistics and fashions to realize a aggressive edge. These vary from primary field rating stats to superior metrics obtainable in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is all the time room for brand spanking new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that provides a number of benefits over WOPR. Click right here for an in-depth rationalization of the mannequin, my course of and its benefits.
Week 17 Recap
The mannequin did fairly nicely in week 17, with one top-10 identification and 4 top-30 picks. From a easy record of seven “non-elite” gamers, I might think about that spectacular. Pittman was particularly an awesome name by each the mannequin and my write-up on him from final week.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 18
As a fast reminder of how regression-to-the-mean fashions work, I predict a participant’s FPpG based mostly on their three-week PWOPR (defined extra right here).
PWOPR is rather more steady than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future efficiency. To determine potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the participant’s predicted FPpG from their precise FPpG. Players with a very good PWOPR and a residual of -3 or decrease seem on this record. Players will proceed to look till one of many following happens:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with an enormous recreation
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their anticipated FPpG
Courtland Sutton retains the highest spot on our record for a second consecutive week. Sutton delivered a strong efficiency final week however fell in need of the mannequin’s predicted alternative. This week, he faces the Kansas City Chiefs in a pivotal recreation for the Broncos. The Chiefs lead the league in middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection charges and in displaying MOFO earlier than in the end taking part in it. While Bo Nix struggles towards MOFO, rating eighth-worst in PFF grade versus this protection sort, Sutton’s grade additionally dips from 73.4 to 66.2 in MOFO conditions. Despite the unfavorable matchup, the potential for the Chiefs to relaxation starters leaves room for Sutton to seek out success.
Marvin Harrison Jr. reappears on the record with a matchup towards the San Francisco 49ers, who run the second-highest fee of middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) protection within the NFL. Unlike Sutton, Harrison maintains consistency in MOFC conditions, along with his PFF grade holding regular and his goal fee growing by 2%. This matchup places him in a barely higher place to thrive.
Zay Flowers attracts a recreation towards the Pittsburgh Steelers, who make use of the sixth-highest fee of displaying MOFC after which taking part in MOFC. Flowers excels in these conditions, seeing his PFF grade rise from 84.0 to 90.0 and his goal fee enhance by 2%. This matchup may play to his strengths.
Jauan Jennings faces the Arizona Cardinals, who run the eighth-highest MOFO fee within the league. MOFO protection typically suppresses elite huge receiver performances, and with Brock Purdy sidelined, Jennings might face extra challenges. However, in Kyle Shanahan’s system, these challenges is perhaps mitigated. Jennings’ grade and goal fee stay unchanged in MOFO conditions.
This week might be a breakout alternative for Tre Tucker, a participant who has constantly excelled on route-based metrics all through the season. Tucker faces a Los Angeles Chargers protection that ranks within the high 10 in crew PFF protection grade, fewest explosive passing performs allowed, and lowest common depth of goal (aDOT) allowed. If the Chargers relaxation their starters, Tucker’s outlook may enhance considerably.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a good matchup towards the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a crew that has been a pass-funnel protection this season. Tampa Bay boasts a powerful run protection grade (72.0, sixth-best) however struggles in protection, with a crew PFF grade of simply 51.0 (third-worst). The Buccaneers additionally enable a 9.4 aDOT (seventh-highest), aligning nicely with Valdes-Scantling’s strengths as a deep menace.
Brandin Cooks steps into the WR1 function for the Dallas Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb on IR. He faces the Washington Commanders, who make use of common charges of MOFO and MOFC protection and possess a middling crew protection grade of 57. While this can be a strong matchup for Cooks, there’s no overwhelming benefit to use.
Demarcus Robinson is ready to face the Seattle Seahawks, however with starters resting in preparation for the playoffs, his snap rely is unsure. If he does see important taking part in time, Robinson advantages from Seattle’s excessive MOFO charges, the place his PFF grade improves from 65.0 to 72.0. However, his goal fee stays constant.
As all the time, not each participant on this record will ship, however a number of are well-positioned to exceed their current common PPR, with a couple of probably delivering explosive performances.
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