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Estimated studying time: 8 minutes
Fantasy and DFS fanatics, bettors, and analysts usually depend on a wide selection of statistics and fashions to realize a aggressive edge. These vary from primary field rating stats to superior metrics obtainable in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is all the time room for brand new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that gives a number of benefits over WOPR.
Last week, I developed a regression to the imply mannequin using a brand new metric I created: Predicted WOPR (PWOPR for brief). The purpose was to pinpoint gamers who would possibly profit from constructive regression, like Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low mannequin. The mannequin carried out effectively in Week 7, too, efficiently figuring out George Pickens as a breakout candidate.
The engine for this mannequin was constructed utilizing PFF’s route-level knowledge to forecast the probability of a participant receiving a goal, in addition to the anticipated variety of air yards related to that play.
These can create some highly effective metrics: “share of predicted targets” and “share of predicted air yards,” each of that are extra predictive and secure than their precise counterparts.
Using each share of predicted targets and share of predicted air yards, we are able to create a brand new metric: Predicted WOPR (PWOPR).
PWOPR = (1.5* Share of Predicted Targets) +
(.7 * Share of Predicted Air Yards)
PWOPR could be very predictive and really secure:
I coated the main points of the mannequin in my earlier “route-based heroes” article, however the important thing takeaway is that PWOPR gives stability in predicting participant efficiency, whereas fantasy factors might be unpredictable. By leveraging PWOPR, we are able to determine underachieving gamers poised for breakout video games.
One of our standout picks final week was George Pickens, who emerged as a route-based hero and delivered an exceptional efficiency.
This mannequin might be utilized to pinpoint potential breakout gamers for fantasy soccer or DFS. While not each participant will ship on their promise, these showing on this checklist usually tend to exceed expectations than gamers chosen at random.
It’s necessary to know how these regression-to-the-mean fashions function. Players will proceed to look on the checklist till they both A) fulfill their PWOPR potential and have a standout recreation, or B) experience a decline of their PWOPR, aligning with their anticipated fantasy factors.
For occasion, if Ja’Lynn Polk continues to battle to capitalize on his alternative (20 targets over his final 4 video games with solely 4 catches), he might merely get benched for higher alternate options.
Now, to look at some names on this week’s desk:
• Marvin Harrison Jr. is an intriguing title on the checklist. He demonstrated his explosive potential with a 29 PPR-point efficiency in Week 2 and can want one other standout recreation to match his present PWOPR.
• Calvin Ridley would possibly grow to be a daily characteristic on this article. Although he performs in a subpar passing offense, he holds one of the best PWOPR on the staff, but they’re struggling to persistently get him the ball.
• Tank Dell is highlighted as a possible breakout candidate this week towards a Colts protection that ranks fourth within the league in single-high protection. This protection is usually extra favorable for elite large receivers to have standout performances.
• Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are distinguished on the checklist, particularly with Tua Tagovailoa returning this week towards a staff that just lately allowed 349 passing yards to the usually run-heavy Chargers. While the Dolphins might train warning with Tua’s return, that seemingly means the next quantity of fast passes to Hill and Waddle.
• Jerry Jeudy continues the development of Alabama large receivers on this checklist and could possibly be a high-upside play this week. Deshaun Watson has struggled this season, but when Jameis Winston steps in, he might present a big improve to the Browns’ passing recreation, doubtlessly sparking Jeudy to a breakout efficiency towards the Ravens in a recreation the place the Browns might discover themselves taking part in from behind.