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Estimated studying time: 6 minutes
Welcome to the most recent installment of “Coach, I Was Open,” my ongoing statistics sequence, the place I construct and refine a mannequin to foretell targets for each route in each NFL sport.
I created this mannequin utilizing route-level PFF information to foretell the likelihood of every route being focused on each play within the NFL. This mannequin generates attention-grabbing metrics comparable to “share of predicted targets” and “share of predicted air yards.” These metrics are extra steady and predictive than their precise counterparts.
The core thought behind creating this mannequin is {that a} participant is perhaps “incomes targets” by constantly getting open and operating precious routes however not receiving targets for numerous causes — comparable to quarterback strain, a misinterpret or the quarterback forcing the ball elsewhere. After reviewing the movie, groups might acknowledge that sure gamers had been open and alter their sport plan to contain them extra in subsequent weeks.
Later, we take a look at why three elite gamers — A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel and Tee Higgins — did not get the ball as a lot as they need to have in Week 14.
Week 14 Recap
Ja’Marr Chase delivered one other epic efficiency, incomes a season-high 18 targets and his second-best PPR whole of 45.1 factors.
While Calvin Ridley and Wan’Dale Robinson didn’t produce huge numbers, the mannequin precisely projected robust goal quantity for each, with Ridley seeing 12 targets and Robinson 11.
Rome Odunze didn’t rack up an enormous variety of targets, however he made them depend, securing two end-zone targets for touchdowns.
Josh Palmer, Ja’Marr Chase, and Christian Watson all completed with season-highs in targets.
IDENTIFYING BREAKOUT CANDIDATES FOR WEEK 14
A.J. Brown was the inspiration for the creation of the “Coach, I Was Open” mannequin, as we defined in my very first article. And as I touched on in my Route-Based Heroes article, A.J. Brown has a strong matchup towards the Steelers this week. If the Eagles can handle the Steelers’ cross rush, I count on a giant week from him.
Deebo Samuel has been the odd man out recently, with both Jauan Jennings or George Kittle taking the highlight — or the complete 49ers offense struggling. The Rams have been common defensively general, however their poor tackling (per PFF’s staff tackling grade) presents a possibility for Samuel. As a confirmed YAC famous person, he might thrive if the 49ers get him the ball.
Tee Higgins was overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase’s excellent efficiency final week. In Week 15, he faces the Titans, who’ve used middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection on the eighth-highest fee since Week 9. Higgins excels in single-coverage conditions, however the Titans have allowed the sixth-fewest single-coverage alternatives over that span.
Season Leaders in Share of Predicted Targets
Here’s this week’s up to date desk, and it’s a notable one — now we have our very first tight finish on the leaderboard! Trey McBride has been dominating the Cardinals’ Share of Predicted Targets, clearly displaying how closely Arizona’s offense is designed to get the ball into his arms and the way a lot he stands out in comparison with the opposite receivers on the staff.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is in a robust place, benefiting from two of the perfect receivers within the NFL at getting open. However, with a PFF passing grade of simply 66.5 this season (twenty seventh within the NFL, minimal 200 dropbacks), there’s loads of room for enchancment in his efficiency.
Week 14: Reievers getting open
Brown ran 14 routes with a goal likelihood above 30% however solely obtained 4 targets (bear in mind, my goal information consists of each play until the participant was concerned in a penalty). This tied for the biggest hole of the week between robust route possibilities and precise targets — usually an indicator of a possible goal improve forward.
One of those routes is highlighted beneath. Brown had a 54% probability of being focused on this play however wasn’t. It got here on first-and-10 from midfield, with the Eagles trying to rating earlier than halftime.
Hurts held onto the ball on this play, as he has usually executed this season. He leads the NFL in common time to throw (3.2 seconds) amongst quarterbacks with not less than 100 dropbacks.
The consequence was a checkdown to Kenneth Gainwell for a two-yard acquire. This play simply might have gone for seven or extra yards had Hurts focused Brown — and if Brown broke a deal with, the acquire might have been a lot larger.
Not All Hurts’ Fault
This play happened later within the third quarter on a important third-and-2, with the Eagles trailing 16-14. While it’s unclear whether or not the play was known as as-is or adjusted on the line, it was a full-on shot play for a short-yardage state of affairs. The design featured three deep routes, all of which finally obtained huge open. However, Cam Jurgens was crushed badly by A’Shawn Robinson, and with no checkdown or quick choices accessible, Hurts had nowhere to go and was sacked.
As the sack occurred, each A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith broke free downfield. Assigning blame right here is hard, given we don’t know why the play relied solely on deep routes in a third-and-short state of affairs whereas trailing. Regardless, it’s clear that this one can’t be pinned fully on Hurts.
Quarterback Decision Making – Week 14
The Predicted Targets Model permits us to guage a quarterback’s efficiency over a single sport, a sequence of video games and even a whole season. This mannequin analyzes each route on each play, calculating the likelihood {that a} given participant will probably be focused primarily based on elements comparable to openness, PFF grade, degree of separation and extra. By leveraging this route-level information, we will decide whether or not the quarterback made an optimum determination. I filtered all the information solely to performs the place there have been not less than two routes on a play in order that the QB needed to decide.
To simplify the evaluation, I categorized each determination into three distinct classes:
- Optimal Decision: The quarterback threw to the participant with the best goal likelihood.
- Suboptimal Decision: The quarterback threw to a participant who didn’t have the best goal likelihood.
- Bad Decision: The quarterback threw to the participant with the bottom goal likelihood.
Justin Herbert lastly began making incredible selections, however the Chiefs had been sadly an excessive amount of to beat.
Will Levis, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson all had dangerous determination charges above 20% on the week, whereas Herbert and Sam Darnold had above 80% optimum determination charges with wildly completely different sport outcomes.
For extra NFL stats and evaluation, observe Joseph on Twitter/X.