- Andrew Van Ginkel is that this 12 months’s dragon that IDP drafters appear to be chasing: After an IDP MVP-like season in 2024, there are too many pink flags in Van Ginkel’s profile to count on something near that return once more.
- Frankie Luvu and Quincy Williams are simply probably the most overvalued linebackers in IDP proper now: Two of the worst tacklers on the place, every completed exterior the highest 15 in IDP scoring final season, are being drafted as top-10 gamers at their place proper now.
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
After highlighting some favourite values in IDP FastDraft D-Up drafts yesterday, it’s solely pure that we cowl some gamers being overvalued in that format who ought to be prevented at value. Avoiding these potential ADP traps that different drafters are falling into may help IDP managers separate themselves from the pack in constructing a championship-quality roster.
ED Andrew Van Ginkel, Minnesota Vikings
The temptation to chase fantasy factors from final season is simple for almost all of fantasy drafters, and the chance in doing so for IDP is commonly a lot higher than on the offensive facet of the ball, as year-to-year stability in fantasy factors is far decrease for defensive gamers (highlighted right here). Van Ginkel being drafted because the DL11 within the D-Up format is the type of entice we need to keep away from in IDP, as he displays lots of the pink flags we’re in search of in figuring out potential regression candidates. And whereas drafters are at the least not contemplating him a top-five choose the place he completed final season, even anticipating a top-12 return for Van Ginkel in 2025 is a dangerous funding unlikely to repay.
As good of an NFL participant as Van Ginkel could also be, he was one of many league’s greatest overachievers final season, ending properly above his anticipated sack totals final 12 months whereas rating 98th percentile in sacks versus anticipated regardless of inserting within the 66th percentile in anticipated sacks and 71st at his place in pass-rush grade. Those are the pink flags to look out for when evaluating potential regression within the sack column. Van Ginkel additionally delivered two defensive touchdowns final season, which is an extremely unstable statistic that enhances his general IDP manufacturing from final 12 months. Van Ginkel continues to be a powerful tackler and may get first rate enjoying time, however together with his large performs more likely to take a big hit, that strikes him properly out of DL1 vary for 2025 and isn’t value that present ADP.
ED Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos
DL18 for Bonitto isn’t such an egregious worth that IDP managers ought to really feel afraid to take him on this vary, however it’s nonetheless a good bit larger than his end-of-season worth is more likely to end even after a breakout 2024 season. Bonitto delivered a excessive 13 sacks and located the top zone twice on the 12 months. As was the case with Van Ginkel, Bonitto can be liable to adverse regression each within the sack column and, in fact, the landing complete, which, for a participant who ranked as ED22 in factors per sport final 12 months, makes his DL18 ADP a regarding one and certain out of attain.
Bonitto is a greater pass-rusher than Van Ginkel, and he performs sufficient that his sack totals may not take as large of a success, however the place Bonitto’s IDP potential is stunted much more comes from his tackling potential. Bonitto completed simply seventh percentile at his optimistic in tackles versus anticipated, which places the priority for him as a way more boom-bust IDP possibility on a weekly foundation. This may be positive for greatest ball codecs, however once we count on regression within the “increase” performs, he turns into lots much less interesting for all codecs, placing him nearer to the DL3 vary, the place he’s at the moment ranked.
LB Frankie Luvu, Washington Commanders
At LB6, Luvu stands out as possibly probably the most overvalued IDP linebacker of 2025 proper now, coming off a season the place he performed all 16 video games through the fantasy season, delivered a position-leading eight complete sacks, and completed because the LB16 general and LB27 in factors per sport. For Luvu, his function in Dan Quinn’s protection makes him the largest boom-bust funding on the linebacker place, as he spends extra snaps on the defensive position and dashing the passer than any participant on the place. While that’s nice for his sack totals, his deal with potential takes a large hit and creates a considerably decrease output than his full-time friends on the place, as highlighted by his standing in tackles versus anticipated, rating second percentile in that regard – an space he has constantly struggled to provide.
With Luvu touchdown eight sacks final season, he’s now being drafted as if he’s going to enhance on that quantity, which simply isn’t usually the way it works out for all move rushers, even the excellent ones. Odds are that eight is the ceiling for Luvu, and to this point that has been a career-high. And for drafters taking him this excessive, it’s greater than probably going to be a significant misstep as soon as these sack numbers begin to come again all the way down to earth, even when he maintains that very same function. There’s manner an excessive amount of volatility in Luvu’s manufacturing and potential to focus on him this early in drafts, and IDP managers ought to completely keep away from this entice.
LB Quincy Williams, New York Jets
Being drafted proper after Luvu, for some motive, is Williams, who’s arguably a worse tackler than Luvu after ending with the second-worst mark within the league in tackles versus anticipated. This is now the second straight season the place Williams has completed within the backside second percentile in tackles versus anticipated. He’s an extremely inefficient tackler who we must always not put top-10 worth on heading into 2025.
There is, and has been, manner an excessive amount of meat left on the bone by Williams, and that couldn’t be extra clear than final season when he performed the second-most snaps on the place (1,136), however completed as simply the LB25 and LB39 in factors per sport. For context, seven of the 12 linebacker leaders in defensive snaps completed as top-12 IDP linebackers. The 5 exceptions are Williams, Luvu, Patrick Queen, Demario Davis, and Tremaine Edmunds – with all having a historical past of being poor performers within the tackles versus anticipated metric, and have been once more final season. While alternative is the best contributor to IDP manufacturing for our linebackers, figuring out even the full-time gamers who’re that inefficient can preserve us from overvaluing them every season, and Williams is a transparent case of a participant being overvalued and ought to be prevented at that value.
CB Pat Surtain II, Denver Broncos
I didn’t count on to have to incorporate Surtain on this record, however understandably, there are a number of new fantasy players making an attempt IDP for the primary time by way of this easy-to-draft format, and taking the reigning Defensive Player of the Year goes to really feel like a logical option to anybody new to IDP. Unfortunately, due to how good Surtain is as a cornerback, that’s what hurts his IDP potential. The majority of IDP manufacturing comes from tackles, and for an outdoor cornerback like Surtain, he’s usually going to must get focused at a excessive charge to extend his alternatives for tackles. Being pretty much as good as he’s, Surtain just isn’t the participant that opposing offenses wish to choose on within the secondary, so that’s naturally going to decrease his alternatives for tackles, which is the case with all the league’s greatest gamers on the cornerback place.
Surtain completed because the CB49 throughout 15 video games final season, even with an above-average big-play charge. As highlighted within the graphic above, Surtain’s tackles versus anticipated ranked lifeless final on the place, with the big majority of that loss approaching passing downs. Considering the participant, there’s no motive to count on a drastic change in Surtain’s outlook for 2025, which makes DB7 ADP a disastrous worth to be sure that all IDP drafters keep away from going ahead, because the IDP worth isn’t anyplace near that analysis.