Longtime NFL QB Aaron Rodgers to signal with Steelers

• One of the perfect quarterbacks of the PFF period: Rodgers’ profession has been outlined by a unprecedented capacity to mix aggression with ball safety. Among 98 quarterbacks with at the very least 1,000 dropbacks since PFF started charting in 2006, he ranks third in big-time throw fee (6.1%) and fourth in turnover-worthy play fee (2.2%).

• Things will probably be removed from simple: Rodgers would be the most succesful chief this offense has had since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and he’s a secure guess to orchestrate a extra structured, environment friendly assault. But expectations needs to be tempered. The days of superhuman playmaking — each inside and outdoors the pocket — could also be behind him, particularly behind an offensive line that featured only one participant with a 70.0-plus PFF grade final season.

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Aaron Rodgers is headed to Pittsburgh.

The four-time NFL MVP is signing a one-year take care of the Pittsburgh Steelers, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. The transfer comes after months of hypothesis and units the stage for Rodgers to hitch his third NFL franchise, one week earlier than the crew’s obligatory minicamp. He’s anticipated to fly to Pittsburgh on Friday and signal the deal earlier than subsequent week’s actions.

The framework of the contract has been in place for months, in response to NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero.

Aaron Rodgers: PFF grades by season

Selected within the first spherical of the 2005 NFL Draft out of the University of California, Rodgers spent the primary 17 seasons of his profession with the Green Bay Packers, the place he established himself as one of the crucial environment friendly and dynamic quarterbacks in league historical past.

But after almost twenty years in Green Bay, Rodgers was then traded to the New York Jets in 2023 in a transfer meant to revive the franchise, however the plan unraveled simply 4 snaps into his debut when he suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.

He returned in 2024 to publish a 77.8 PFF grade, tied for 14th amongst 44 qualifying quarterbacks. Vintage Rodgers it was not, however it was an indication that he can nonetheless function at a starting-caliber degree. He accomplished 368 of his 584 cross makes an attempt (63.0%) for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, ending with 26 big-time throws to simply 12 turnover-worthy performs.

A superhuman capacity to make performs and defend the ball

Rodgers’ profession has been outlined by a unprecedented capacity to mix aggression with ball safety. Among 98 quarterbacks with at the very least 1,000 dropbacks since PFF started charting in 2006, he ranks third in big-time throw fee (6.1%) and fourth in turnover-worthy play fee (2.2%).

That mixture — elite-level playmaking with out the standard threat — has been the spine of the longer term Hall of Famer’s success. He has graded above 80.0 in 11 of his 19 NFL seasons, with three of the eight exceptions coming in years the place he performed fewer than 100 snaps. He’s graded above 85.0 in 10 of these campaigns and cleared 90.0 5 instances, together with a 95.1 total grade in 2020 that stands because the second-highest single-season mark in PFF historical past.

That 2020 marketing campaign is the top of Rodgers’ profession and one of many biggest quarterback seasons ever recorded. That season, he led the NFL with a 94.7 PFF passing grade and completed with 53 touchdowns to simply six interceptions, posting a league-best 7.6% big-time throw fee and the third-lowest turnover-worthy play fee (2.1%), trailing solely Tom Brady (1.9%) and Deshaun Watson (2.0%).

On 660 dropbacks, he racked up 49 big-time throws in opposition to simply 15 turnover-worthy performs — a staggering ratio that underscored the diploma of problem and effectivity that outlined his MVP run.

Even in 2024, getting back from a torn Achilles at age 40, Rodgers remained one of many league’s most secure decision-makers. He recorded solely 12 turnover-worthy performs on 643 dropbacks, a 1.8% fee that ranked fifth amongst quarterbacks and marked the fifteenth time in 16 years as a starter that he’s completed a season underneath the three.0% threshold.

A brand new period in Pittsburgh

Rodgers’ effectivity got here with a transparent stylistic shift final 12 months: His 7.3-yard common goal depth tied for the shortest of his profession, whereas his 2.65-second common time to throw was tied for his third-fastest. He threw previous the sticks on simply 38.2% of his makes an attempt, the third-lowest fee of his profession.

That calculated, lower-variance model is a pointy departure from what the Steelers had underneath middle final season with Russell Wilson. And that is likely to be precisely the purpose.

Wilson, who was allowed to stroll in free company this offseason, performed a a lot riskier sport in 2024. He posted an 8.4-yard common goal depth and held onto the ball for two.85 seconds on common, continuously searching downfield pictures. He threw deep (20-plus air yards) on 13.7% of his dropbacks, tied for the Tenth-highest fee. Rodgers, by comparability, tried a deep cross on simply 10.8% of dropbacks, twenty sixth amongst qualifiers, opting as an alternative for a faster, extra environment friendly rhythm.

It’s a philosophical pivot for Pittsburgh, and maybe a response to how their offense functioned final season.

From Week 7 onward — as soon as Wilson took over because the starter — the Steelers‘ passing sport was among the many least environment friendly within the league when it wasn’t hitting deep pictures. On cross performs that didn’t journey 20-plus yards downfield, Pittsburgh ranked simply twenty second in anticipated factors added (EPA) per play (0.180). But when deep passes have been included, their effectivity jumped all the best way to ninth (0.321).

In quick, the passing sport struggled to remain on schedule with out chunk positive aspects. In Rodgers, the Steelers might even see a veteran able to lifting the baseline effectivity of their offense, not simply residing off the occasional explosive play.

What the betting markets say

Before information of Rodgers’ signing, Pittsburgh’s win complete was set at 8.5, with notable strain on the underneath. With the longer term Hall of Famer now within the fold, that quantity will seemingly tick up by a win or extra. But even with Rodgers underneath middle, betting the over at a possible 10.5 is likely to be a stretch.

The early schedule presents some cushion. PFF’s forecast has the Steelers going through the second-easiest slate via September. But issues tighten dramatically down the stretch, with Pittsburgh projected to face the toughest schedule within the league from Week 12 onward. That stretch consists of matchups with Buffalo, Detroit and two showdowns in opposition to division rival Baltimore.

At 8.5, there is a believable case for worth on the over. But at 10.5, you are betting on near-elite quarterback play, and a steep climb via one of many NFL’s hardest year-end gauntlets.

The Bottom Line

Rodgers would be the most succesful chief this offense has had since Ben Roethlisberger retired, and he’s a secure guess to orchestrate a extra structured, environment friendly assault. But expectations needs to be tempered. The days of superhuman playmaking — each inside and outdoors the pocket — could also be behind him, particularly behind an offensive line that featured only one participant with a 70.0-plus PFF grade final season.

He raises the ground in Pittsburgh. He may not increase the ceiling.