- The league-wide display screen price has reached a brand new excessive: Last season’s 11.0% clip marked the third straight yr of the NFL surpassing a ten% display screen price.
- But, why? Screens aren’t really producing extra league-wide worth than earlier than. So, we’re diving into how NFL coaches suppose and why groups are leaning extra on these performs.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
“It’s an extension of their run sport.”
You’ve possible heard that line when watching an NFL sport — the broadcaster referencing how an offense makes use of fast passes or screens to choose up “straightforward” yards. And should you’ve heard it extra usually not too long ago, that’s as a result of groups are turning to screens at the next price.
More than 10% of whole dropbacks throughout the NFL have been display screen makes an attempt in every of the previous three seasons. The 2022 marketing campaign was the primary time the common sat above that threshold, and it has solely continued to rise over the previous two years.
One may assume display screen utilization goes up for the apparent cause: NFL groups are having success with it. But that hasn’t essentially been the case.
Ignoring a few of the peaks and valleys in current seasons, the overall development of the graph above exhibits declining manufacturing on screens. Three of the 4 seasons through which NFL groups have collectively averaged fewer than 5 yards per display screen since 2010 have come up to now three years.
That begs the query: Why have we seen a gentle rise in display screen passes in current seasons regardless of the play turning into comparatively inefficient at a league-wide degree?
We’ll begin by making an attempt to get into the psychology of why NFL coaches name sure performs — an admittedly harmful sport to play.
Eric Eager, my former colleague and the present Vice President of Football Analytics for the Carolina Panthers, wrote concerning the worth of completely blocked runs for PFF in 2021.
Eric wrote, “If a run play is completely blocked up (utilizing PFF grades), the working sport itself is extra environment friendly than essentially the most environment friendly offenses within the NFL … a superbly blocked-up working play is simpler than a superbly blocked-up passing play on common, and the outcomes are ‘clean,’ as there isn’t the equal of an incompletion of their world.”
Offensive coaches within the NFL have an innate perception of their potential to name the correct performs and execute at a excessive degree. In different phrases, they imagine their staff can beat the averages of roughly one in three performs being completely blocked. That’s related on this piece as a result of, in principle, screens are the pass-game extension of a run name.
Completion proportion on screens (86.0% in 2024) is considerably increased than on non-screens (62.5%), so that you’re mitigating a few of the unfavourable play threat that comes with incompletions within the dropback passing sport. You’re additionally much less prone to take huge unfavourable performs, corresponding to sacks and interceptions. And when screens are accomplished, a proficient participant typically must make just one defender miss in area to create a piece play.
The general EPA per play averages by play sort within the NFL final season don’t do something to say that display screen performs aren’t a pass-game different to the run sport. Teams added the identical quantity of anticipated factors on common on screens as designed runs in 2024 — each of which have been much less environment friendly than the dropback passing sport.
EPA Per Play Averages by Play Type within the 2024 NFL Season
| Play Type | EPA Per Play |
| Non-Screen Dropbacks | 0.05 |
| Screen Dropbacks | -0.08 |
| Designed Runs | -0.08 |
The distribution of EPA for these play sorts sheds a bit bit extra mild on the vary of outcomes for every, in comparison with merely trying on the level estimate of the common.
We can see that the distribution for run calls is extra concentrated than different play sorts, with that peak coming just under zero anticipated factors added. As one may anticipate, non-screen passes have a wider distribution with extra possibilities for giant swings in anticipated factors in both course.
The distribution for display screen passes sits someplace in between, with a peak barely beneath that of run performs however with barely increased possibilities at a giant, constructive achieve. We can view these huge negatives and massive positives by way of the framework of EPA values of -1 or decrease or +1 or increased.
“Big” Positive and Negative Plays by Play Type within the 2024 NFL Season
| Play Type | % of EPA < -1 | % of EPA > 1 |
| Non-Screen Dropbacks | 19.4% | 27.1% |
| Screen Dropbacks | 14.1% | 14.8% |
| Designed Runs | 9.6% | 11.8% |
While it could appear to be screens can “change” runs within the sense of offering a break the place the offense is mitigating the chance of a unfavourable play, the quarterback isn’t tasked with making reads and harder throws downfield and the offensive line would not want to carry up in cross safety for two.5-plus seconds, it is not essentially a one-for-one comparability.
Screens sit nearly precisely between designed runs and non-screen dropbacks within the proportion of performs with an EPA generated beneath 1.0, and whereas there’s barely extra upside for a giant play, screens don’t come near touching the 27% of non-screen dropbacks that generate an EPA mark above 1.0.
Even trying strictly at conditions the place the expectation is that screens shall be extra profitable — corresponding to when the protection blitzes and the offense has the chance to get blockers in area with fewer gamers again in protection — offenses didn’t prosper usually final season.
EPA Per Play Against the Blitz by Play Type within the 2024 NFL Season
| Play Type | EPA Per Play |
| Non-Screen Dropbacks | 0.02 |
| Screen Dropbacks | -0.15 |
| Designed Runs | -0.13 |
On common, offenses have been extra environment friendly when working into blitzes than when calling a display screen cross throughout the 2024 season.
A well-executed display screen thrown right into a void left by a blitzing defender is likely one of the extra stunning performs in soccer. But some parallels may be drawn between that and completely blocked run performs. The numbers point out that it occurs lower than we want to imagine.
This isn’t to say that offenses aren’t executing screens at a excessive degree. The Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals all averaged not less than 0.2 EPA and 6.5 yards per play on display screen passes final yr.
The Buccaneers, particularly, utilized screens usually and successfully in 2024 below then-offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Tampa Bay ranked fourth within the NFL in display screen utilization (17.0% of dropbacks) and second behind solely the Detroit Lions in EPA per display screen (0.257). That sort of effectivity has turn out to be extra the exception than the baseline, but display screen charges proceed to climb throughout the league.
Numerous phrases have been written about cross sport versus run sport effectivity, and plenty of the “simply throw the ball” dialog has grown tiresome. Building the ship out of solely dropback passes isn’t sensible. An offense must have selection to maintain defenses off stability, and dropping again on each snap strains the gamers who drive pass-game manufacturing.
Parallels may be drawn to the NBA, the place when a participant’s utilization goes up, it’s tough for them to take care of the identical degree of effectivity in comparison with a lower-volume function.
Anecdotal proof helps the concept that offensive linemen would moderately be proactive within the run sport and impose their will moderately than play reactively in cross safety.
This all factors to a world the place a rising display screen price is sensible; it’s a compromise between the extra environment friendly cross performs and the “safer” runs, the place a well-executed play nonetheless affords some upside. The subject is that screens, on common, aren’t any extra environment friendly than working the ball and nonetheless carry extra draw back.
In the cyclical nature of soccer, it looks like we’re reaching a degree the place run charges may enhance with groups enjoying extra two-high protection shells on account of making an attempt to remove explosive passes. That was, in some ways, the story of the 2024 NFL season, with veteran working backs Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs as key parts on new groups.
It’s value watching subsequent season whether or not that development pushes display screen charges down from the 11.0% clip in 2024, or whether or not that quantity continues to climb regardless of falling effectivity.