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Estimated Reading Time: 28 minutes
I’ve been placing collectively notes for each recreation that Judah Fortgang and I hit on the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show every week. So this week, I’m taking a stab at placing collectively notes for each recreation within the slate.
The concept is to place my analysis and ideas onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to assist myself work by means of what bets I wish to place every week. Hopefully you’re capable of get related worth from this text as you’re employed by means of your decision-making course of. Each recreation will embrace data-driven and contextual notes for each side of the ball with an “Angles I like” abstract on the finish, which rapidly summarizes how I’m almost definitely to wager the sport from each a spreads, totals and participant props perspective.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (TB -6.5, 46.5 TOTAL)
• The Buccaneers have been one of many larger cross funnels within the NFL this yr (a constant theme for Todd Bowles’ defenses in Tampa Bay)
- 67% cross fee confronted (4th highest)
- 3,325 passing yards allowed (Third most)
• The return of Jamel Dean does shore up one of many weaker spots within the secondary, however we nonetheless noticed Bryce Young throw for practically 300 yards on this protection final week
• I’m going again to the nicely with Raiders’ cross recreation alts right here. One of the most important attracts for doing that with Las Vegas is how concentrated its pass-game manufacturing has been since buying and selling away Davante Adams
• Most targets on Raiders offense since Week 7
• I don’t have a robust lean on Bowers vs. Meyers. I’ll seemingly have bets round each.
• The Raiders compiled certainly one of their finest dashing performances of the season round Sincere McCormick final week. He’ll seemingly get one other bigger alternative at carries, however this isn’t a matchup I wish to assault in a recreation Las Vegas will seemingly lean pass-heavy.
• The air must be the trail of least resistance on the opposite aspect of the ball, too
- Raiders protection success fee allowed | 2024 season
- Run protection: fifth
- Pass protection: twenty second
- Raiders protection success fee allowed | 2024 season
• Tampa Bay remains to be splitting carries sufficient with Rachaad White (10-plus carries in every of the final three video games) that I gained’t be on Bucky Irving’s dashing over right here. But I don’t wish to wager his unders both, given how environment friendly he’s been.
• I count on the Buccaneers to funnel targets by means of Mike Evans down the stretch as a result of 1) Mike Evans targets are typically factor for the offense and a couple of) it does look like they wish to get him to 1,000 yards to proceed his streak
- But, the matchup right here for TB is softer to fit receivers than it’s to exterior receivers. The Raiders are within the backside half of the NFL in single-high protection fee, which is the place Evans has excelled
- Raiders receiving yards allowed | 2024 season
- Outside receivers: 1,020 (Seventh fewest)
- Slot receivers: 1,057 (Sixth most)
- Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton get the vast majority of slot snaps for this offense. It’s price taking photographs on both or each at what must be pretty low strains, although I don’t suppose there’s a ton of alt-line upside for both.
Angles I like: Raiders +7, Aidan O’Connell overs paired with Brock Bowers/Jakobi Meyers receiving overs, Sterling Shepard/Cade Otton reception overs
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (PIT -6.5, 43.5 TOTAL)
• We simply acquired this matchup two weeks in the past in a recreation that was impacted by climate, however each offenses nonetheless confirmed some explosiveness within the passing recreation. Mid-week, it doesn’t appear to be the climate will influence Sunday (temperature within the excessive 40s, rain supposed to carry off till night time).
• On the Pittsburgh aspect of the ball, I’ll be attacking related angles to 2 weeks in the past with Russell Wilson’s means to hit throws downfield towards a Browns secondary that has given up deep ball manufacturing.
•Wilson has large single-high vs. two-high splits this season, and the Browns are in single-high 68% of the time (2nd highest behind solely Pittsburgh)
- Wilson vs. single-high: 84.7 PFF passing grade (Third)
- Wilson vs. two-high: 64.0 PFF passing grade (twenty eighth)
· Wilson’s 10.8-yard common goal depth vs. single-high is the second-highest behind Anthony Richardson. Wilson needs to push the ball downfield.
• George Pickens leads the NFL in deep receptions (8) and receiving yards (268) since Russell Wilson took over in Week 7.
- Wilson accomplished 4 passes 20-plus yards downfield towards the Browns in Week 12, however only one went to Pickens. I wouldn’t count on that to be the case once more right here, so I’ll be betting on a giant recreation from Pickens.
- Might be a chance to wager Mike Williams alts with a low receiving yardage line if Calvin Austin III misses the sport with a concussion. Williams may very well be extra of a full workload if that’s the case, and he’s able to pulling in a single or two downfield passes from Wilson.
• Since Jaylen Warren returned from harm in Week 6, each he and Najee Harris have performed 200-plus snaps.
- The backfield is cut up, and Cleveland has been adequate towards the run that I gained’t be focusing on something within the Steelers run recreation. The Browns have additionally allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to gamers lined up within the backfield this season (203).
• The largest concern is Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s cross rush attending to Wilson. Garrett had three first-half sacks vs. Wilson of their first assembly, and regardless of no sacks within the second half, Garrett and Dalvin Tomlinson mixed for 11 pressures after halftime.
• We noticed an uncharacteristically low-volume recreation from Jameis Winston within the first assembly vs. Pittsburgh. The Browns leaned extra on Nick Chubb within the snow with 20 carries (inefficient with 59 yards on these 20 carries).
• Cleveland has struggled to run the ball all season, rating thirty first in common yards per run play (3.1) forward of solely the Seattle Seahawks.
• The Pittsburgh run protection has really been one of many weaker models within the NFL over their final 5 video games:
Pittsburgh run protection since Week 8
- twenty ninth in EPA per play allowed
- twenty eighth in success fee allowed
- twenty ninth in common yards per play allowed
• The challenge is, I don’t know if Cleveland is provided to capitalize on the shortage of explosiveness we’ve seen from Nick Chubb and the offensive line accidents that the Browns have needed to battle by means of in 2024.
• There are video games developing towards the Eagles and Ravens the place I’ll look to wager on this angle, although.
• I can be anticipating extra cross recreation quantity for Winston on this spot than we noticed on Thursday Night Football within the snow. He’s proven the flexibility to place up yardage in a rush since taking on for Deshaun Watson.
• Joey Porter Jr. didn’t observe Jerry Jeudy within the first assembly (11 of 26 cross snaps throughout from him). There’s an opportunity he may see extra of him after Jeudy’s large recreation on Monday Night Football final week (which might be a downgrade for Jeudy; Porter is Pittsburgh’s finest cowl CB and he tends to seize when he loses, which ends up in extra penalty yards than receiving yards towards him).
• Winston’s fashion of play tends to result in factors, whether or not that’s for the Browns or for opposing offenses who get quick fields because of turnovers. I’ll be on over 43.5.
• One final be aware: Whether it’s Germain Ifedi or Jedrick Wills Jr. returning at LT this week, the ROLB for Pittsburgh is in a great place to choose up a sack
• The Steelers predict Alex Highsmith to return from harm. Both he and Nick Herbig have been glorious and will get 1-on-1s in a winnable matchup with how a lot consideration the Browns have paid to T.J. Watt.
• I’ll be Highsmith/Herbig sack props at what must be plus odds.
Angles I like: Over 43.5, Russell Wilson and George Pickens overs, Mike Williams alts if Calvin Austin III will get dominated out, Jameis Winston over cross makes an attempt, Alex Highsmith/Nick Herbig sack props.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (TEN -3.5, 39.5 TOTAL)
• This can be Jacksonville’s first recreation towards the Titans this season (they play once more in Week 17).
• I’m at all times fascinated about taking part in the tails on unstable quarterbacks with upside towards dangerous cross defenses. This qualifies as that kind of spot for Will Levis towards the Jaguars.
- Levis’ four-highest PFF passing grades of the season have all come within the final 4 weeks.
- Jacksonville has allowed 8.4 yards per cross try this season (worst).
- Levis’ opening line is sitting at proper round 205 yards this week. You’re getting good worth on alt strains at 250+ towards the worst cross protection within the NFL for a participant taking part in his finest soccer proper now.
• Calvin Ridley has been by far the crew’s prime receiver when he will get single protection, and the Jaguars are a man-heavy protection that makes use of single protection at one of many highest charges within the NFL. He’s a pure pairing with Levis in any same-game parlays.
• I don’t know what to make of the truth that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is fourth within the NFL in receiving touchdowns (8) on simply 20 catches, however he’s +185 for an anytime TD once more this week.
• One of the larger points in Will Levis’ recreation is his propensity to take sacks (37 — fourth-most in NFL regardless of rating twenty seventh in complete dropbacks) behind a foul OL, however Jacksonville has actually struggled to generate any form of fast stress in current weeks.
• Jaguars: 9% fast stress fee since Week 8 (lowest in NFL).
• Jacksonville’s offense shouldn’t be one outfitted to raise a backup QB like Mac Jones. Even after a comeback effort final week towards Houston, the Jaguars are averaging -0.2 EPA per play and 4.2 yards per play with Jones on the sector (each could be worst within the NFL for the complete season).
• The consensus opinion of the Titans protection is probably going increased than the outcomes on the sector (although Levis has put them in some dangerous conditions with sacks and turnovers). Tennessee is twenty seventh in factors allowed per recreation and has allowed a TD on 31% of drives (third-highest behind Bengals and 49ers).
• Given the shortage of means to maintain drives we’ve seen from Jones (his 25% scoring drive fee could be lowest in NFL), I believe there are viable builds round Titans alt spreads and/or Jaguars below 17.5 factors on their crew complete.
• The Titans have additionally been a bottom-five offense at changing within the crimson zone, which may carry below 39.5 into play.
Angles I like: Will Levis and Calvin Ridley overs, Titans -3.5, Jaguars below 17.5 crew complete.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (PHI -12.5, 45.5 TOTAL)
• This is an absolute smash spot for Saquon Barkley. He comes into this recreation averaging a league-high 6.1 yards per carry, the Eagles are 12.5-point dwelling favorites and the Panthers are useless final in complete dashing yards allowed this yr (1,998).
• Barkley’s line displays that at 111.5 early within the week. Any wager on Barkley should weigh the competitiveness of the sport (Panthers staying shut = good for Barkley, blowout = potential for them to rotate in different rushers late within the recreation) and the way a lot Philadelphia needs to proceed to feed Barkley to spice up his season totals.
• I are inclined to lean towards staying away from Barkley given the blowout potential and intensely excessive strains going into the sport.
• But, I’ll seemingly take a stab at Kenneth Gainwell anytime landing because of the potential for him getting run within the second half if Philadelphia is up large.
• Carries within the crimson zone for Eagles up 10-plus factors within the second half
- Barkley: 8
- Hurts: 8
- Gainwell: 6
• This matchup additionally units up about in addition to any within the NFL for Jalen Hurts as a passer.
- Hurts’ clear vs. pressured passing splits:
- Clean: 9.6 YPA (2nd to Lamar Jackson), 115.3 passer ranking (Third)
- Pressured: 5.3 YPA (twenty seventh), 72.1 passer ranking (sixteenth)
- Panthers have one of many worst cross rushes within the NFL (25% stress fee in 2024 is useless final) and are going through a gifted Eagles OL
- The Panthers are additionally top-five in single-high protection fee and have struggled on in-breaking routes from exterior extensive receivers. That units up nicely for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who must be getting back from harm this week.
- Jalen Hurts’ passing line is 209.5, which must also result in affordable totals for Brown and Smith. I don’t love attacking loopy alts as a result of I believe Philadelphia will have the ability to play from forward, however Hurts/Brown/Smith overs are in play.
- Hurts’ clear vs. pressured passing splits:
• Since returning in Week 9, Bryce Young is PFF’s Eleventh-highest-graded passer, however this would be the hardest take a look at he’s confronted up to now.
• Since Cooper DeJean acquired inserted into the lineup in Week 6, the Eagles have the NFL’s finest protection by practically any metric you wish to have a look at
Lowest scoring drive fee allowed since Week 6
- Eagles: 23%
- Lions: 29%
- Chargers: 30%
• The Eagles have been tough to run towards since early within the season, and provided that Philadelphia ought to put up factors, we seemingly will see Young in quite a lot of apparent passing conditions.
• I’m working below the idea that Philadelphia is ready to management this recreation from the leap, and that the Panthers offense struggles greater than we’ve seen the final two weeks vs. Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
Angles I like: Jalen Hurts passing overs as much as 250 yards, DeVonta Smith receiving overs (depending on strains… Should be decrease than Brown’s in a matchup that favors each), Kenneth Gainwell anytime TD.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (MIN -5.5, 45.5 TOTAL)
• Bijan Robinson doesn’t persistently get the quantity that we see from different elite working backs. He’s been over 20 carries in simply three video games this season.
• This can also be a particularly tough dashing matchup towards the Vikings. Offenses don’t run a lot towards them (31% run play fee towards — 2nd lowest in NFL) and so they’ve been stingy towards the run when groups do go to the bottom (3.1 yards allowed per run play — Third lowest)
• Where Robinson can have an effect on this recreation is as a receiver in what must be a high-volume passing recreation for the Falcons.
• Kirk Cousins has nearly no mobility, and we all know that Brian Flores goes to ship stress.
• Robinson leads the NFL in receptions (25) and receiving yards (197) on performs charted as checkdowns this season.
• The Vikings have allowed essentially the most receptions (47) and second-most receiving yards (352) of any protection within the NFL on checkdowns this season, which marks great place for Robinson receiving props
• That is probably going all I’ll be attacking on the Atlanta offense, although. The Falcons are twenty seventh in EPA per cross play over their final three video games, and so they’ve been simply center of the pack towards zone blitzes, which Minnesota makes use of greater than another protection within the NFL.
• I don’t love something on the Minnesota offensive aspect both, which pushes me towards betting the below 45.5 recreation complete.
• The Falcons have accomplished job of taking away deep photographs (11 receptions allowed 20-plus yards downfield — Third fewest in NFL), however the space they’ve been harm a bit has been on throws between the numbers and 10-19 yards downfield at intermediate depths (149.8 passer ranking allowed is highest in NFL on this a part of the sector).
•Justin Jefferson dominates targets on this portion of the sector (315 receiving yards on targets right here is essentially the most within the NFL).
Angles I like: Bijan Robinson dashing unders, Bijan Robinson receiving overs, Justin Jefferson receiving overs, below 45.5 recreation complete.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (MIA -5.5, 44.5 TOTAL)
• With this being a divisional matchup, we’ve got a multi-year pattern of how the Jets have defended the Miami passing assault since Mike McDaniel took over as head coach.
- Jets protection scheme vs. Miami in comparison with each different offense since 2022
- Cover 1: 15% vs. MIA | 26% vs. all different offenses
- Cover 2: 2% vs. MIA | 2% vs. all different offenses
- Cover 3: 30% vs. MIA | 29% vs. all different offenses
- Cover 4: 30% vs. MIA | 23% vs. all different offenses
- Cover 6: 18% vs. MIA | 11% vs. all different offenses
- Jets protection scheme vs. Miami in comparison with each different offense since 2022
• The largest takeaway right here is that New York doesn’t play Cover 2 (which the Dolphins see lots), however the Jets do spike their quarters and Cover 6 utilization towards Miami whereas reducing man protection charges.
• Dolphins goal charges towards C3, C4 and C6 with Tua Tagovailoa at QB this season:
Jonnu Smith: 30%
With Tagovailoa getting the ball out extra beneath this season, I’m going to proceed betting Smith overs till the strains get raised increased. The Dolphins are in search of him lots on this offense. He additionally avoids Sauce Gardner/D.J. Reed in contrast to Hill and Waddle on the skin.
• Miami has actually struggled to run the ball this season (thirty first in EPA per run play forward of solely the Raiders), and I don’t count on that to vary on this matchup.
- The Jets have had points at occasions this season stopping the run, however they’ve been comparatively sturdy towards exterior zone runs, which the Miami run recreation is constructed round.
- 3.4 yards per carry allowed on exterior zone (fifth fewest in NFL)
- The Jets have had points at occasions this season stopping the run, however they’ve been comparatively sturdy towards exterior zone runs, which the Miami run recreation is constructed round.
• Jalen Ramsey has been glorious this season for Miami, however he hasn’t been touring with prime extensive receivers all through video games in 2024. Kader Kohou and Kendall Fuller each rank exterior the top-90 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF’s superior protection grades.
• Davante Adams has 30 targets throughout the Jets’ final three video games (Third-most in NFL over that three-week span). Aaron Rodgers is forcing him the ball, and I believe he’ll get quantity on this matchup understanding of the slot.
- He’s actually the one piece I’ve a lot curiosity in on the Jets offense. I’d mess around with Rodgers passing below parlayed with Adams receiving overs to inform the story of Rodgers forcing him the ball in an in any other case inefficient outing (and capturing inverse correlation within the odds).
Angles I like: Jonnu Smith receiving overs, De’Von Achane dashing unders, Davante Adams receiving overs.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (NO -3.5, 41.5 TOTAL)
• The Giants have had actual points stopping the run with Dexter Lawrence on the sector. But, him shifting to IR (elbow) solely additional hurts one of many league’s worst run defenses.
Most yards allowed per run play (together with penalty yardage) | 2024 season
- Commanders: 4.6
- Saints: 4.4
- Bears: 4.3
- Giants: 4.3
The Saints have leaned fairly closely on the run this season below Klint Kubiak when run fee over anticipated numbers. Alvin Kamara has had one of many safer dashing roles within the NFL with 206 of the Saints’ 261 working again carries
- This looks as if a spot the place Kamara will get a heavy workload with the Saints coming in as favorites and no Taysom Hill so as to add on to the NO run recreation.
• The Giants have additionally struggled mightily towards deep passes, which is one other main function of the Saints below Kubiak.
- Derek Carr ranks among the many prime 10 quarterbacks within the NFL in proportion of makes an attempt 20-plus yards downfield this season. He’s additionally PFF’s highest-graded passer on these throws.
- The Giants are permitting a league-high 20.6 yards per play on throws 20-plus yards downfield.
- Given the accidents to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the clear goal because the deep menace within the Saints’ offense.
• It feels like Drew Lock will stay at quarterback for the Giants for at the least one other week. Lock has been extraordinarily delicate to stress all through his profession, which may imply we see a greater model of him on this matchup.
- Drew Lock clear vs. stress splits in his profession
- Clean: 80.7 PFF passing grade
- Pressured: 28.5 PFF passing grade
- Lock was pressured on 50% of his dropbacks final week towards Dallas.
- The Saints’ cross rush has been towards the underside half of the NFL all season, significantly in current weeks. New Orleans has posted a 28% stress fee since Week 8 (twenty eighth in NFL).
- Drew Lock clear vs. stress splits in his profession
• Malik Nabers has a 39% goal fee towards man protection this season, and the Saints nonetheless run man at one of many increased charges within the NFL.
- The Saints’ man protection has been ineffective, too (7.4 yards per cross play allowed in man is highest in NFL).
• The Saints have additionally ranked towards the underside of the NFL towards the run (5.0 yards per carry allowed is 2nd behind solely the Giants for the complete season).
• This all units up for this recreation to have sneaky offensive potential with a 41.5-point complete. I’ll be on the over, with SGPs constructed round each offenses.
Angles I like: Alvin Kamara dashing overs + anytime TD, Marquez Valdes-Scantling alt receiving overs + TD (lengthy TD reception), Malik Nabers receiving overs, over 40.5 recreation complete.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (ARI -2.5, 44.5 TOTAL)
• Every NFC West recreation carries important significance down the stretch, with all 4 groups within the division clustered round .500 coming into Week 14.
• We simply noticed this matchup play out in Week 12 as a low-scoring 16-6 win by the Seattle Seahawks at dwelling.
• I’ve talked about it a number of occasions on the PFF Betting Show, however the Cardinals have been the most effective groups within the NFL when taking part in with a lead this season.
- Cardinals EPA per play rank on offense | 2024 season
- Losing by multiple rating: fifteenth
- One-score recreation: twelfth
- Leading by multiple rating: fifth
- We can doubtlessly make the most of this by taking part in Cardinals’ first half paired with a bigger alt unfold for the complete recreation. That tells the story of Arizona getting out to an early lead and shutting out the sport sturdy.
- Cardinals EPA per play rank on offense | 2024 season
• One of the larger points for the Cardinals is that Seattle has been glorious at stopping the run in current weeks, together with within the first assembly with the Cardinals.
• That’s going to place extra of the stress on Kyler Murray to shoulder the offensive load if that continues to be true.
- Murray has had his two highest-volume passing video games within the final two weeks with 45 makes an attempt vs. the Vikings final week and 37 makes an attempt vs. Seattle two weeks in the past.
- Trey McBride was the clear prime goal for Murray in that Week 12 assembly with 12 catches on 15 targets for 133 yards. He did quite a lot of his harm after the catch with 6.3 yards after the catch per reception.
• The largest challenge for Seattle’s offense has been its cross safety, however Arizona nearly must scheme up stress for it to be efficient.
- Cardinals: 17% fast stress fee (twenty eighth in NFL)
- Geno Smith: 189 pressured dropbacks (most in NFL)
- Smith had success passing when Arizona introduced the blitz in Week 12 however did take a number of sacks: 9-for-11, 135 yards (3 sacks taken)
• I don’t have a lot religion in Seattle’s means to dam up the run recreation up entrance. Kenneth Walker III is at all times able to breaking a couple of tackles and producing explosives, however Seattle is averaging a league-low 0.6 yards earlier than contact per designed run.
• Similar to Arizona, that seemingly places a lot of the stress on Smith to hold the offense — which has been the case all season.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged because the clear prime goal for Geno Smith in current weeks.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba yards per route run by week:
- Weeks 1-7: 1.10
- Weeks 8-13: 3.05
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba yards per route run by week:
• My favourite angle will seemingly be betting on Geno Smith discovering Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which ends up in one other large recreation for McBride
- Side be aware: McBride leads all tight ends in red-zone goal fee however has no receiving touchdowns on the season. He’s due.
Angles I like: Geno Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba overs, Trey McBride overs. I additionally suppose there’s a viable SGP angle round Arizona getting early success and controlling the sport.
CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (SF -3.5, 44.5 TOTAL)
• This 49ers roster is past beat up. San Francisco is probably going with out Nick Bosa once more this week towards Chicago. The crew can also be nonetheless prone to be down Trent Williams on the opposite aspect of the ball, together with its prime two working backs in Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason.
• The solely protection to permit a landing on a better proportion of their drives this season than San Francisco are the Jaguars, Panthers and Bengals.
- The 49ers are coming off a recreation the place Buffalo simply ran throughout them within the snow, however the run protection has been a difficulty for San Francisco past simply final week (twenty eighth in success fee allowed on run performs this yr).
- Nick Bosa has a 20% pass-rush win fee this season (Sixth amongst all defenders with 150+ pass-rush snaps). The crew’s next-highest is Maliek Collins (12% – fifty fifth). Where does the cross rush come from if Bosa sits?
• A struggling cross rush is strictly what this Bears offense wants. Caleb Williams’ 49 sacks taken are eight greater than another quarterback.
• D’Andre Swift’s dashing yard line will seemingly be within the mid-to-high 40s, and I’m keen to take a swing on that on this spot given the aforementioned 49ers run protection points.
• Rome Odunze might be my favourite piece among the many Bears receiving corps. San Francisco does an awesome job towards exterior extensive receivers (2nd-fewest yards allowed), however the Bears rotate by means of receivers within the slot, and Odunze is a part of that rotation.
- Odunze is the vertical slot menace with an ADOT over 14.0 yards when he strains up within the slot. That’s one space the place San Francisco has been a bit weaker (tenth in receiving yards allowed on throws 10-plus yards downfield to fit receivers).
• On the 49ers aspect, I believe Isaac Guerendo and George Kittle are the highest gamers to focus on.
- 51% of Guerendo’s dashing yards this yr have come on explosive runs (10-plus yards), and Chicago has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run fee. The Bears’ run protection has been a difficulty in current weeks, and Guerendo ought to get many of the run recreation work with McCaffrey and Mason out.
- The Bears have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to inline tight ends this season, and so they’re one of many largest Cover 3 defenses within the NFL. Kittle averages a team-high 3.03 YPRR towards Cover 3 this season and does quite a lot of his harm inline.
Angles I like: D’Andre Swift and Isaac Guerendo dashing overs, George Kittle receiving overs and anytime TD, CHI +3.5.
BUFFALO BILLS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (BUF -3.5, 49.5 TOTAL)
• There are going to be alternatives right here for Kyren Williams given how the Bills are arrange structurally. Buffalo needs to remove explosives and play with gentle containers on early downs at one of many increased charges within the NFL.
- Bills protection in gentle containers on 1st and 2nd down | 2024 season
- 46% of performs (Ninth-highest)
- 6.0 yards allowed per run play (2nd-highest)
- The Rams have a 30% run fee vs. gentle containers on early downs (Seventh-highest)
- Kyren Williams vs. gentle containers on early downs
- 4.9 yards per carry and three.5 yards earlier than contact per run
- 54 makes an attempt (2nd-most in NFL to Bijan Robinson)
- Kyren Williams vs. gentle containers on early downs
- Bills protection in gentle containers on 1st and 2nd down | 2024 season
• The Bills’ cross rush has underwhelmed over the past 5 weeks
- 19% fast stress fee (twenty third)
- 28% stress fee (twenty seventh)
• That’s notable as a result of Matthew Stafford has a few of the larger clear vs. stress splits within the NFL. If the Rams can run the ball and maintain Stafford clear, this matchup units up nicely for Los Angeles regardless of Buffalo’s success on protection on the entire this season.
- Stafford clear vs. pressured
- Clean: 90.3 PFF passing grade, 8.0 YPA, 110.3 ranking
- Pressured: 28.2 PFF passing grade, 5.3 YPA, 50.1 ranking
- Stafford clear vs. pressured
• Cooper Kupp is my favourite goal among the many Rams extensive receivers. He has a 31% goal fee towards two-high protection shells (highest on offense) and will get the vast majority of the snaps within the slot.
- The Bills have allowed 995 yards to fit receivers (Ninth-most) and 842 yards to exterior extensive receivers (fewest in NFL)
• The Bills have additionally allowed by far the best variety of targets to working backs of any protection within the NFL. Even although Williams isn’t a prolific receiving again, it’s not a foul matchup to take receiving overs for him.
- Most targets allowed to RBs this season
- Bills: 91
- Buccaneers: 79
- Broncos: 78
- Most targets allowed to RBs this season
• On the opposite aspect of the ball, the Rams protection is coming off back-to-back video games the place they’ve struggled to cease the run after stretch of play in run protection mid-season.
- In specific, they’ve had issues this season on duo runs, which make up a good portion of Buffalo’s dashing assault. Los Angeles is twenty seventh in success fee and EPA allowed per rush towards duo.
• The Rams’ cross rush has been one of many largest strengths on their protection (38% stress fee on the season — Sixth-highest in NFL), however Allen is without doubt one of the finest quarterbacks within the NFL at making performs with our bodies round him.
- Buffalo has posted 5.7 yards per pressured dropback (2nd-highest in NFL behind GB)
• We ought to count on quite a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 6 from the Rams given their most frequent protection sorts this season.
- Khalil Shakir vs. C3 / C6: 125 routes, 37 catches on 43 targets, 380 yards (3.04 YPRR and 34% goal fee are each by far highest on Buffalo’s offense)
Angles I like: Rams +4.5, Kyren Williams dashing overs, Khalil Shakir receiving overs. There are viable builds across the Rams successful in lower-scoring recreation round their dashing recreation, in addition to Bills successful a high-scoring recreation that pushes Rams’ cross recreation (Cook overs, Shakir Overs, Kupp overs).
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (KC -3.5, 42.5 TOTAL)
• I’ve been attacking the KC cross protection since Jaylen Watson went down, and I’m not going to cease right here in a matchup towards Justin Herbert, who enters this matchup ranked fourth amongst qualifiers in PFF passing grade.
- Chiefs cross protection since Jaylen Watson harm (Weeks 8-13)
- twenty sixth in EPA / cross allowed
- twenty sixth in complete passing yards allowed
- The different factor right here is that the pass-defense struggles have turned Kansas City into a fairly heavy cross funnel (4th in common yards allowed per run play). The J.Ok. Dobbins harm may lead the Chargers to lean much more into the cross, which we’ve seen since their early-season bye
- Chiefs cross protection since Jaylen Watson harm (Weeks 8-13)
• Ladd McConkey has been glorious vs. man protection this season (4th-highest PFF receiving grade), which KC makes use of at a top-10 fee, however his standing remains to be up within the air because of a number of accidents (shoulder and knee sprains). I’m a bit scared off of McConkey’s overs, given the potential for both harm flaring up if he tries to go, which we noticed occur within the second half vs. Atlanta final week.
• That leads me to imagine that Josh Palmer and Will Dissly would be the major items I’m fascinated about within the receiving recreation.
- KC performs an honest quantity of man protection, however they’re additionally second in two-high protection utilization behind solely Minnesota
- Quentin Johnston sees a major goal fee lower vs. two-high appears to be like, whereas Will Dissly’s 210 receiving yards are solely eight fewer than McConkey’s towards these coverages
- Herbert has additionally been in search of Palmer downfield. A number of weeks in the past towards the Ravens (one other protection that performs quite a lot of two-high), Palmer had 259 air yards. A number of of these downfield photographs join, and also you’re sitting in a great place for Palmer alts.
• As for the Chargers protection towards KC, I’m at some extent the place I’m going to fade the Chargers’ defensive success towards elite offenses (like Bengals and Ravens), however their enchancment below Jesse Minter is actual. This Chiefs offense is way from elite.
- Patrick Mahomes’ 32 sacks taken are already 4 greater than he has taken in another season of his profession
- KC ranks simply twenty first in EPA per cross play towards two-high protection shells, which the Chargers additionally deploy often
• This is only narrative-driven, however it feels becoming that the Chargers (after years of Chargering) would have the ability to pull out a one-score win right here below Jim Harbaugh over a KC crew that has lived off one-score wins this season.
Angles I like: Chargers moneyline, Herbert passing overs tied to Palmer/Dissly receiving overs, Chiefs below 23.5 complete factors.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (CIN -5.5, 49.5 TOTAL)
• The Cowboys’ cross protection has proven indicators of enchancment since getting Micah Parsons again in Week 10, however quite a lot of that has been carried by high-leverage performs like sacks and turnovers.
- 8 turnovers pressured on cross performs (T-2nd-most in NFL)
- 16 sacks (most in NFL)
- 33% fast stress fee
• The Bengals’ offensive line might be attacked, however Joe Burrow has accomplished a wonderful job all season of benefiting from performs when stress does get dwelling.
- 17% pressure-to-sack fee ranks Eleventh amongst QBs (had been a bigger challenge earlier in Burrow’s profession)
- And, Burrow leads all QBs in PFF passing grade when throwing on the transfer this season to associate with 8.5 yards per try and a 114.3 passer ranking on these performs (each top-3 marks amongst all quarterbacks)
- I believe the Cowboys’ cross rush may have much less of an influence than we’ve seen the previous couple of weeks
• Cincinnati has had the most effective offense within the NFL with Tee Higgins wholesome and on the sector.
- Most yards per play | 2024 season
- Bengals with Higgins on the sector: 6.7
- Ravens: 6.3
- Lions: 6.0
- Bengals with Higgins off the sector: 4.7 (could be twenty sixth)
- Most yards per play | 2024 season
• The Bengals are one of many pass-heaviest offenses within the NFL, so the most secure wager is focusing on the passing recreation for Cincinnati.
• Dallas is tied for essentially the most yards allowed per reception after the catch within the NFL this season at 6.5. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL in yards after the catch (545). This units up as a possible blowup spot for Chase towards a secondary with harm issues at certainly one of its cornerback spots.
• Cooper Rush has been getting the ball out of his palms faster than another quarterback within the NFL at 2.26 seconds on common.
- There isn’t a lot explosiveness to the Cowboys’ passing recreation, however that fast time to throw additionally neutralizes what has been a rapidly deteriorating Cowboys offensive line
- Trey Hendrickson has an edge over Chuma Edoga at left sort out, however I’m not anxious in regards to the Bengals producing a lot stress on this matchup
• It’s matchup on paper for the Cowboys’ tight ends. Cincinnati has allowed 783 receiving yards (Sixth-most) and eight touchdowns (2nd-most) to tight ends this season.
- Jake Ferguson is trending towards returning after a two-game absence because of a concussion. Luke Schoonmaker has additionally began to ship a few of the most efficient video games of his profession since Ferguson went down in Week 11 vs. Houston
- If Ferguson is again, he’s the safer possibility, however there may very well be a reside betting alternative based mostly on utilization early within the recreation between the 2 tight ends
- Jake Ferguson is trending towards returning after a two-game absence because of a concussion. Luke Schoonmaker has additionally began to ship a few of the most efficient video games of his profession since Ferguson went down in Week 11 vs. Houston
• Neither crew runs the ball all that usually or all that nicely, however this can be a spot the place each defenses are bottom-five in EPA per play allowed towards the run in addition to two working backs who’ve very safe roles in Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle.
- Offensive snaps performed since Week 9 (with ranks amongst RBs)
Angles I like: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase alts (I’m snug throwing Chase Brown props into SGPs alongside Burrow/Chase in Bengals onslaught builds), Jake Ferguson overs (potential Schoonmaker reside wager relying on early recreation utilization and recreation script).