NFL Week 15 Betting: Midweek market replace

• Helping you perceive market motion: This article will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.

• A guess for Chiefs-Browns: Sell the Browns assist and purchase the Chiefs at -4, which can be their ground worth.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and extra. Sign up now!

Estimated studying time: 8 minutes

Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market replace.

This article will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.

Injury, climate circumstances and public choose releases can all have an effect on line motion. Click right here for a deeper clarification of what we purpose to realize with this text.

Click right here to leap to a sport:

LAR@SF | WAS@NO | KC@CLE | BAL@NYG | NYJ@JAX | MIA@HOU |
DAL@CAR | CIN@TEN | TB@LAC | PIT@PHI | IND@DEN |
NE@ARI | BUF@DET | GB@SEA | CHI@MIN |

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Spread: After opening up a degree beneath the lookahead line of three, a choose launch Monday afternoon pushed this to 2.5, which is at present the quantity throughout the board. I don’t anticipate this getting to three.

Total: The complete right here pushed up one level to 49.5, however we did see some resistance at that quantity, with a handful of books dropping again to 49. The market is cut up now between 49 and 49.5.

Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: With the information of Derek Carr’s hand fracture, this quantity opened 3.5 factors increased than the lookahead line. Within a minute of opening at 6.5, the unfold pushed out to 7 and to 7.5 shortly after earlier than hitting some resistance. You’ll want to put extra juice for a 7 on the time being.

Total: After opening 5 factors beneath the lookahead, this pushed down a further level to 43. You can nonetheless discover some 43.5s on the market.

Situational Factors: Advantage Commanders coming off of their bye week. 

Buy/Sell: I’ll purchase the motion on Washington. Coming off of a bye towards an harm riddled Saints staff, I’ll lock in -7 at -115. At -7.5, I’ll additionally incorporate Washington as a teaser leg. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: The market is reacting to yet one more one-score win for the Chiefs, as this has been pushed right down to 4 from the opening variety of 6. This feels just like the low level, and I doubt we see any 3.5s.

Total: There was preliminary assist on the over earlier than a choose launch propelled it as much as as excessive as 46. From there, it’s come down and settled in at 45. 

Buy/Sell: I’ll promote the Browns assist and purchase the Chiefs at -4, which I imagine to be their ground worth.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants

Spread: It’s been one-way motion on the Ravens taking this unfold all the way in which to fifteen. There are nonetheless loads of 14.5s on the market, though you aren’t capturing a lot worth with that quantity. This is the primary sport this yr with a selection past two touchdowns. 

Total: This complete reached 43.5 earlier than settling again at 43. Still, a few 43.5s stay.

Situational Factors: The Ravens are coming off of their bye week.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: There’s been some assist early within the week on the Jets on this matchup, transferring this line out to three.5 at some books. We’ve but to see it get any increased than that. It’ll be Mac Jones as soon as once more after Trevor Lawrence landed on IR. 

Total: On Sunday night time, we noticed this line dip as little as 39.5 earlier than popping again as much as the opening 40.5. There are nonetheless some 40s on the market. 

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

Spread: Shortly after opening, the preliminary transfer right here was from 1.5 to 2.5. A choose launch on the Texans took them out to three earlier than it settled at a juiced -2.5. You’ll want to put extra to get both facet of this key quantity with the market cut up between 2.5 and three. 

Total: There was a slight tick as much as 47 from the opening 46.5. There is just not a lot else to report right here. 

Situational Factors: Advantage Texans coming off of their bye week. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Flipped favourite from the lookahead line, and that assist has continued for Carolina, pushing this line to just about a area aim. It stays to be seen if we see a 3 pop up, but when it does, I don’t imagine it’s going to final lengthy. 

Total: There is a few disagreement available in the market about the place this complete must be, because it at present ranges between 42.5 and 43.5. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

Spread: This unfold received out to -5 earlier than Monday Night Football and re-opened at that quantity after the Bengals squeaked out a win in Dallas. Tennessee was on the flip facet of that equation with a late loss to Jacksonville after main for 48 of the primary 54 minutes of the sport. This quantity ought to stay on this lifeless zone up till kickoff.

Total: Despite an eruption sport from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, this complete has slid down a half-point to 46.5 after the Bengals and Titans each went beneath their sport totals final week. We had been on the beneath within the Bengals-Cowboys sport final week with an inflated complete, however with this one three factors beneath the lookahead, the market appears to be like to have corrected itself. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: This line has moved down a half-point to three in favor of the Bucs. There are a few 2.5s on the market, however they’re closely juiced on Los Angeles. I imagine this finally closes at 3. 

Total: The complete opened 45 and has solely risen a half-point to 45.5 as issues at present stand.

Buy/Sell: I’m fading this transfer on the Bucs and shopping for the Chargers at -3. There are some -2.5s on the market, however it’s not extensively out there. If you may get higher than -124, I favor the -2.5 quite than a -3 at -105.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: After opening at 4, the Eagles reached as excessive as 5.5, however the market has since returned to five. We’re seeing some 4.5s floor now and even a few 4s at distinguished books.

Total: A low-scoring affair is probably on the docket as we’ve seen this complete drop two factors after opening almost two factors beneath the lookahead. Keep a watch on the climate radar right here, as rain is on the forecast.

Buy/Sell: Another shopping for alternative on the Steelers catching extra factors than they need to be. I’m locking within the +5 and banking on the Steelers’ cross rush disrupting Jalen Hurts, who has been vulnerable to wrestle towards stress. I’ll be in search of alternate traces on the Steelers as effectively. 

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Spread: There has been loads of assist on the Colts, with a choose launch being the principle driver behind the transfer from 5.5 to as little as 3.5. I anticipate a few of these final 3.5s to show into 4s sooner quite than later.

Total: The complete has jumped previous the lookahead variety of 43.5 to as excessive as 45. That excessive water mark didn’t final lengthy, and the market is at present cut up between 44 and 44.5.

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: We’ve seen this unfold in every single place, getting as little as 4 earlier than leaping again up 1.5 factors to the present variety of 5.5. We’ll see how the Patriots come out of their bye week on condition that Jerod Mayo is probably teaching for his job. 

Total: At the opening quantity, I appreciated the over 44. But with a two-point transfer as much as 46 early within the week, it’s a cross for me now.

Situational Factors: Advantage Patriots coming off of their bye week. 

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

Spread: The first transfer right here was Detroit to 2.5, however most books have returned to the opening variety of 2. This must be the closing quantity.

Total: Steady motion on the over has pushed this as much as 55. At that time, we noticed some assist for the beneath, because it ticked again right down to 54.5 throughout the board. 

Situational Factors: There is a slight relaxation benefit for the Lions having performed on Thursday Night Football.

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Spread: This is a big transfer right here, as we’ve seen the Packers transfer out to a field-goal favourite on the highway. There are nonetheless some 2.5s with additional juice, however the market is leaning nearer to three.

Total: The first transfer right here was a bounce as much as 47 earlier than slipping again right down to 46.5. 

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

Spread: After opening a half-point increased than the lookahead, the Vikings moved out to 7 fairly rapidly. There was some preliminary buyback on the Bears at that quantity, dropping the road again to the opener of 6.5, however it has since returned to 7. It’s indication that it’ll shut someplace between these two numbers.

Total: There’s been some upward motion right here, however not a ton. The market is at present cut up between 43.5 and 44.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: After opening at 4, this line jumped to five, with fairly just a few books nonetheless at 4.5. This sport ought to shut on this neighborhood, and I don’t anticipate far more motion in some way.

Total: It’s been a gradual but regular climb on this complete, because it creeps again towards the lookahead variety of 45. A couple of books have gone to 44.5, and we’ve but to see a lot resistance at that quantity.