• Helping you perceive market motion: This article will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
• A wager for Texans-Chiefs: I’m shopping for Kansas City at their ground worth and locking in -2.5. Mahomes has proven he can play by any such damage earlier than. There’s additionally an opportunity Hollywood Brown makes his debut, although it’s extra prone to occur on Christmas Day towards the Steelers. If Mahomes fits up, this line ought to shut at or above 3.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and extra. Sign up now!
Estimated studying time: 8 minutes
Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market replace.
This article will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
Injury, climate circumstances and public decide releases can all have an effect on line motion. Click right here for a deeper clarification of what we purpose to realize with this text.
Click right here to leap to a sport:
DEN@LAC | HOU@KC | PIT@BAL | CLE@CIN | PHI@WAS
DET@CHI | ARI@CAR | NYG@ATL | LAR@NYJ | TEN@IND
MIN@SEA | NE@BUF | JAX@LV | SF@MIA | TB@DAL | NO@GB
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | LAC -3 | LAC -3 | LAC -2.5 |
| Total | 42 | 42.5 | 42 |
Spread: The line moved off the important thing variety of 3, making the Chargers a 2.5-point favourite. A couple of books nonetheless supply the Chargers at -3, however the market has largely settled under that quantity.
Total: The whole has seen a slight dip, shifting all the way down to 42 from the opening 42.5. However, some 42.5s are nonetheless out there.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | KC -4 | HOU -2.5 | KC -2.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 41 | 41.5 |
Spread: Wild swings within the unfold are clearly tied to Patrick Mahomes’ ankle standing forward of this Saturday’s matchup. After Week 15, head coach Andy Reid initially referred to as Mahomes “day-to-day,” which later shifted to “week-to-week.” That uncertainty briefly made Houston a 3.5-point favourite on Monday. However, rising optimism about Mahomes’ availability has swung the road again in Kansas City’s favor, making them almost a 3-point favourite. Most of the market is shifting towards -3, although some 2.5s are nonetheless out there.
Total: The uncertainty surrounding Mahomes has impacted the full, which dipped as little as 39.5 earlier than rebounding to 42 on Tuesday afternoon. The market has largely settled at 41.5 throughout the board.
Buy/Sell: I’m shopping for Kansas City at their ground worth and locking in -2.5. Mahomes has proven he can play by any such damage earlier than. There’s additionally an opportunity Hollywood Brown makes his debut, although it’s extra prone to occur on Christmas Day towards the Steelers. If Mahomes fits up, this line ought to shut at or above 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | BAL -4 | BAL -6.5 | BAL -6.5 |
| Total | 46.5 | 46.5 | 44.5 |
Spread: The market is at the moment break up between 6 and 6.5. It’s unlikely this line closes outdoors of these two numbers.
Total: A decide launch on Monday morning introduced the full down from the opening 46.5 to 45. That downward development continued late Tuesday night time, with the full dipping additional to 44.5. Potential wind within the forecast could also be contributing to this motion.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | CIN -5.5 | CIN -7 | CIN -7.5 |
| Total | 49 | 49.5 | 47 |
Spread: Some books briefly dropped this line to six.5 on Monday morning, however they’ve returned to 7, according to the broader market. Now, the road has moved to 7.5 throughout the board.
Total: A decide launch on an AFC North below introduced the full down from 49.5 to 48. After holding there for twenty-four hours, it dipped once more to 47. Cold temperatures are anticipated, however in any other case, the forecast seems favorable.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | PHI -2.5 | PHI -3.5 | PHI -3 |
| Total | 48.5 | 46 | 45.5 |
Spread: Most of the market has moved to Philadelphia as a juiced 3-point favourite. There are nonetheless some 3.5s out there, however you will must pay further juice to again Washington at that quantity.
Total: A slight adjustment has lowered the full by half a degree to 45.5 for this divisional matchup. This determine is 3.5 factors decrease than their Week 11 assembly.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | DET -8 | DET -7 | DET -6.5 |
| Total | 46 | 46.5 | 48 |
Spread: A wave of accidents for the Lions has moved this line down from 7 to six.5 throughout the board.
Total: The whole opened at 46.5 however re-opened at 48 on Tuesday morning after the Bears’ Monday Night Football sport. There hasn’t been a lot motion since.
Buy/Sell: Dan Campbell mentioned in a press convention that accidents gained’t be an excuse for his staff. While that mindset can’t final ceaselessly, I don’t see it impacting this sport. I’m taking the Lions at -6.5.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | AZ -3.5 | AZ -4 | AZ -4.5 |
| Total | 46 | 46.5 | 47 |
Spread: This line has moved up half a degree to 4.5 from the opener. Some 4s are nonetheless out there, and in the event you search, you’ll be able to even discover just a few off-market 3.5s.
Total: The market noticed assist for the over after opening at 46.5, pushing the full as much as 48. However, resistance introduced it again all the way down to 47.
Situational Factors: The Panthers have a slight journey benefit on this matchup.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | ATL -8.5 | ATL -10 | ATL -8.5 |
| Total | 41.5 | 42.5 | 40.5 |
Spread: The market was already leaning towards New York earlier than Tuesday night’s announcement that Kirk Cousins can be benched for Michael Penix Jr. By then, the road had moved to 9, and the change at quarterback resulted in a half-point adjustment. Most books now have the unfold at 8.5, although you’ll be able to nonetheless discover numbers starting from 8 to 9.
Total: The whole was sitting between 41 and 41.5 earlier than the information about Cousins. After the announcement, the road dropped to 40.5 throughout the board.
Buy/Sell: As famous in prior weeks, we have been ready for Cousins to be benched to focus on a reside over. I imagine the market overreacted, so I’m locking within the over at 40.5. Penix has proven a willingness to push the ball downfield, and if the Falcons can replicate even a part of their success towards the Raiders, they need to create short-field alternatives.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | LAR -2.5 | LA -3 | LA -3 |
| Total | 46.5 | 47 | 46.5 |
Spread: The line has remained regular between 3 and three.5, with the market nonetheless break up.
Total: The solely motion has been a slight half-point drop to 46.5.
Situational Factors: This is one other case the place a staff coming off Thursday Night Football has further relaxation earlier than touring throughout the nation.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | IND -4 | IND -4.5 | IND -3.5 |
| Total | 42 | 43 | 42.5 |
Spread: A quarterback change in Tennessee has moved this line down a full level to three.5, with the market viewing Mason Rudolph as an improve over Will Levis. We haven’t seen the road drop to three but, but when it does, count on assist for the Colts.
Total: A slight adjustment has introduced the full all the way down to 42.5, although some 43s are nonetheless out there.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | MIN -2.5 | MIN -4 | MIN -3 |
| Total | 45.5 | 42 | 42 |
Spread: Early cash on the Seahawks introduced this line all the way down to the important thing variety of 3. It briefly touched 2.5, however that didn’t final lengthy earlier than being corrected.
Total: The whole dropped from the lookahead quantity, largely as a consequence of Geno Smith’s knee damage on Sunday. While preliminary reviews have been constructive, the market hasn’t moved considerably from the opening determine.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | BUF -11.5 | BUF -14 | BUF -14 |
| Total | 46.5 | 44.5 | 46.5 |
Spread: The line briefly examined -13.5 earlier than returning to 14, with just a few books even posting 14.5.
Total: A decide launch on the over pushed the full from 45 to as excessive as 47.5 earlier than settling again down at 46.5. The quantity continues to dip barely, with some books now at 46.
Buy/Sell: I’m backing the preliminary transfer and locking within the over 46 at -112. There’s an actual likelihood the Bills get there on their very own. A fast look on the MVP market reveals Josh Allen is taking part in at an elite degree proper now. The Bills haven’t scored fewer than 30 factors since Week 6, with Weeks 4 and 5 being the one different occasions they fell brief this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | LV -1.5 | LV -1 | PK |
| Total | 39.5 | 40 | 39.5 |
Spread: This unfold has bounced backwards and forwards between Jaguars -1 and a decide’em. Depending on the e-book, you’ll find both staff listed as a slight underdog.
Total: The whole hasn’t moved considerably, with only a slight adjustment all the way down to 39.5.
Buy/Sell: I’ll promote the Jaguars’ motion and purchase into the Raiders at decide’em. While 10 consecutive losses don’t encourage confidence, Aidan O’Connell is trending towards taking part in. The market’s response appears influenced by the Raiders’ Monday Night Football efficiency, led by Desmond Ridder.
Situational Factors: The Jaguars face a difficult cross-country journey.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | MIA -1 | MIA -2.5 | PK |
| Total | 48 | 46.5 | 44.5 |
Spread: Momentum on the 49ers has shifted this line to a decide’em. Some books nonetheless record Miami as a 1 to 1.5-point favourite. As talked about beforehand, this vary of numbers doesn’t maintain important worth within the betting market.
Total: The whole has steadily decreased to 44.5 over the week. It hasn’t dipped under that mark but.
Situational Factors: The 49ers have an edge with further relaxation from taking part in on Thursday Night Football, although that benefit is considerably offset by the cross-country journey to Miami.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | TB -4 | TB -4 | TB -3.5 |
| Total | 47 | 47.5 | 48 |
Spread: The preliminary transfer noticed the unfold drop from 4 to three.5. The market stays break up between these two numbers, and it’s unlikely this line will transfer down to three.
Total: Early motion on the over pushed the full as excessive as 49.5 earlier than it settled again at 48. There are nonetheless a number of 48.5s out there.
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | GB -13 | GB -13 | GB -14.5 |
| Total | 41.5 | 43 | 42.5 |
Spread: Ongoing quarterback points for the Saints have the Packers as favorites, ranging between 14 and 14.5 factors. It’s that point of yr when bigger spreads turn into extra frequent. However, just a few market-making books nonetheless record this at 13.5.
Total: While the opener was increased than the look-ahead line, there was constant assist for the below. The whole has dropped to 42.5, with a number of books now at 42 and a few even as little as 41.5.