NFL Week 17 Betting: Midweek market replace

Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market replace.

This article will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.

Injury, climate circumstances and public decide releases can all have an effect on line motion. Click right here for a deeper clarification of what we purpose to attain with this text.

Click right here to leap to a sport:

SEA@CHI | LAC@NE | DEN@CIN | ARI@LAR | DAL@PHI | NYJ@BUF TEN@JAX | CAR@TB | LV@NO | IND@NYG |MIA@CLE | GB@MIN
ATL@WAS | DET@SF

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

Spread: This unfold has been transferring all week. After opening 1.5 factors above the lookahead, it moved to 4. Some market-leading books have taken it out to 4.5, however most books are at 4.

Total: A decide launch on the over pushed this whole to as excessive as 44. It has since slid again right down to 42. Some 42.5s are nonetheless on the board.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

Spread: One-way motion on the Patriots has moved this unfold from the opening 5.5 to 4. No e book has taken it under that quantity, however a couple of 4.5s stay.

Total: There hasn’t been a lot motion, however there’s definitely disagreement available in the market about this whole. Currently, you could find as little as 42 and as excessive as 43.5.

Situational Factors: The Chargers’ slight relaxation benefit after enjoying on TNF is mitigated by the necessity to journey cross-country.

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: The market is presently cut up between 3 and three.5. We’ve but to see any e book surpass both of these numbers. It is a vital matchup right here, with the Bengals needing a win if they need any probability at a playoff look. This isn’t essentially the spot, however these “must-win” conditions can present worth betting in the wrong way.

Total: This whole ticked as much as 48 inside minutes of opening, and on Monday morning, a decide launch pushed this whole out to 50. We’ve seen some market correction as we’ve settled in at a consensus of 49.5.

Situational Factors: The Broncos could have a slight relaxation benefit, having performed on TNF.

Buy/Sell: I’ll purchase into this motion on the whole and lock within the over 49 at bet365. A 49.5 is sweet, too, and it’s discovered at most different outlets.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Spread: The Rams have gotten wholesome and located their stride, as mirrored within the transfer out to 7 on this sport, a far cry from the field-goal lookahead line. We haven’t seen any books take it to 7.5, however there hasn’t been sufficient Cardinals help to push this again under a landing. There are nonetheless some moderately priced 6.5s on the market.

Total: Slight transfer down from 48 to 47.5. A handful of books spent a while at 49 early within the week, however that was by no means a consensus worth.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: There has been a fairly vital transfer right down to under 10, with the standing of Jalen Hurts very a lot in query. The Eagles suffered their first loss since mid-October after some late-game heroics from Jayden Daniels in Week 16. This was after Hurts exited with a concussion, and he’s but to clear protocol. This line is baking in a definite probability that Hurts doesn’t play.

Total: Similar story with the whole, given a 2-point drop from the opener, which was already 1.5 factors under the lookahead market. If Hurts can’t go, it’ll be Kenny Pickett as soon as extra.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: There is a few massive motion right here, as this unfold reached as excessive as 11 earlier than falling under the lookahead line of 9.5. This newest motion was fueled by a decide launch on the Jets once they had been north of a 10-point canine.

Total: This whole has hovered within the 46 to 47.5 vary, so seemingly some differing opinions available in the market pushing this in reverse instructions. We’ve landed on a consensus of 47, however you’ll be able to nonetheless discover some 46.5s at a couple of books.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Another case of flipped favorites via some comparatively meaningless numbers. There are a few books at 1.5.

Total: This bounced backwards and forwards between 40 and 40.5 earlier than a decide launch on the beneath moved it to 39.5.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: This line has been secure across the opening variety of 8, however we’re beginning to see some 7.5s seem.

Total: This whole jumped out to as excessive as 49.5 earlier than settling in at 48.5. Not a lot motion except for that.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: Flipped favourite now, with the Raiders at -1 coming off their first win since September. Last week’s win pushed the Raiders out of the No. 1 spot for the 2025 draft, and Antonio Pierce’s post-game press convention made it clear there can be no efforts to tank in favor of bettering draft place. There have been some rumblings of a Derek Carr return this week, however the market clearly believes that to be noise.

Total: The authentic opener right here was 39.5, however it re-opened at 37.5 after the Saints had been blanked at Lambeau Field on Monday night time.

Buy/Sell: With motivation a non-issue within the Las Vegas locker room, and one other week of Spencer Rattler on deck, I’m taking the Raiders at -1.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants

Spread: After opening at 7, this line bounced backwards and forwards between 7.5 and eight all through the week. I anticipate 7.5 to be the closing quantity.

Total: There has solely been a slight transfer right down to 40.5 from the opening variety of 41, inching in direction of the lookahead line of 39.5. A few books have taken this to 40.

Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: The market is making its ideas on QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson very clear because the Browns strategy 7-point underdogs. The Browns managed solely 6 factors in opposition to a Bengals protection ranked twenty fifth in response to our energy scores. It’s 6.5 throughout the board, however some books have examined the waters at 7.

Total: There will not be a lot motion right here, however a handful of books are reaching 39.5.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Game of the Week potential. We’ve seen each groups favored sooner or later, however we’re now at a PK with an ever-so-slight lean in direction of the Packers.

Total: This received previous the lookahead line of 48.5 to 49 earlier than dropping again to almost the opening quantity. Plenty of 48.5s nonetheless on the board.

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders

Spread: A battle of the rookie QBs right here, and help for the Michael Penix Jr.-led Falcons has pushed this unfold right down to as little as 3.5. That quantity has since come again as much as 4 throughout the board.

Total: The first transfer on this whole was really a dip right down to 46.5 earlier than momentum on the over caught on. The market is presently cut up between 47.5 and 48.

Buy/Sell: I’ll promote the Falcons help and purchase the Commanders at -4. The Falcons protection has dominated their final two video games, with a number of defensive touchdowns. Those outlier outcomes suppress this unfold, particularly while you think about a matchup in opposition to Jayden Daniels, whose 1.76% turnover-worthy play determine is sweet for second-lowest on the season.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: This unfold has bounced backwards and forwards between 3 and three.5 all week.

Total: Similar story on the whole; it has bounced between 50.5 and 51 all week. We’re at 50.5 throughout the board now.

Buy/Sell: The Lions don’t absolutely management their very own future in wrapping up the No. 1 seed this week, however I absolutely anticipate them to play as in the event that they do. With the 49ers out of rivalry, I’m taking the Lions at -3.5 +100 at Caesars.