- Alvin Kamara stays a focus: Kamara’s effectivity has dropped within the final 4 seasons relative to his first 4 seasons, however that hasn’t stopped him from constantly being among the many league leaders in touches every season.
- New head coach Kellen Moore might restrict Kamara: Kamara’s greatest effectivity stats are within the go sport, however Moore has a constant historical past of not prioritizing working backs within the passing sport, regardless of having superb receiving backs prior to now.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
PFF’s Fantasy Football Player Profile sequence delivers probably the most in-depth fantasy soccer evaluation out there for the 2025 season.
Using PFF’s unique knowledge, we consider participant efficiency, competitors for touches and the way teammates and training staffs will impression every participant’s fantasy soccer outlook.
Last up to date: 7:15 a.m. Sunday, May 18
Player efficiency
Kamara was drafted in 2017 and immediately was fantasy gold on account of his receiving capacity. He completed fourth in fantasy factors per sport as a rookie regardless of solely working the ball 120 instances. He adopted that up by ending fourth once more, eighth and first. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry or higher in all 4 seasons and caught between 81-83 passes.
In 2021, the Saints shifted Kamara to extra of a rusher and fewer of a receiver. He ran 240 instances, 46 greater than his earlier profession excessive, however solely caught 47 passes. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry. He completed sixth within the league in dashing makes an attempt and ninth in receptions, nonetheless permitting him to complete sixth in fantasy factors per sport.
Kamara’s grades by no means returned to his pre-2020 ranges, the place he reached an 82.0 offensive grade or higher in three of his first 4 seasons and below 75.0 in every of the final 4. However, his quantity has remained robust. He’s averaged no less than 15 carries per sport during the last three seasons and 4.7 receptions per sport. He’s missed a number of video games each season, however he nonetheless ranks tenth in dashing makes an attempt and first in receptions during the last three seasons. His 85.3 dashing grade during the last three seasons is twenty fifth among the many 71 working backs with no less than 500 snaps, whereas his 74.0 receiving grade is sixteenth. His yards per carry in each scenario have been beneath common over these three seasons.
A giant purpose he’s been in a position to keep elite quantity with solely good to common effectivity is an absence of competitors for touches. His main competitors has been tight finish Taysom Hill, Mark Ingram II at ages 32 and 33, the customarily injured Kendre Miller, and Jamaal Williams as well as Tony Jones, who’re each unsigned free brokers.
Kamara’s fantasy worth elevated final season with extra carries per sport, largely due to accidents to Derek Carr, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, main the group to depend on Kamara as the first wholesome choice of the offense.
Projected function
Kamara might have extra competitors for snaps and touches this season. There have been only some video games the place Kamara and Kendre Miller shared the backfield, however within the first two, Kamara was restricted to a 57% snap price. In the third sport they performed collectively, Miller was restricted getting back from damage, and within the last sport they shared the sector; Kamara suffered an damage. Considering Kamara might be 30 years outdated and Miller might be 23 by the point the season begins, it wouldn’t be shocking if Miller can lower into Kamara’s taking part in time.
The group added Devin Neal within the draft, and he’s additionally somebody who might carve out a task within the offense. New head coach Kellen Moore known as Kamara “a premier participant in our league” when requested about Kamara but additionally mentioned “he’s only a massive play ready to occur,” which hasn’t essentially been true the previous few seasons after it was very true early in his profession. Moore ended, “He’ll be a giant a part of our offense.” This makes Kamara’s function comparatively protected no less than early within the season, however there’s a probability that ineffective play might open the door for a youthful again.
Regardless, we might see his touches per snap lower by a number of proportion factors this season. It shot up final yr after the accidents to many of the different talent gamers within the offense. Derek Carr‘s retirement will possible go away the Saints as a run-heavy group, however the return of the extensive receivers ought to go away them passing greater than they have been at instances final season.
Impact of teammates
Kamara has Moore as a head coach, who has continuously had a excessive performs per sport, which is promising. His run price over anticipated has different, which ends up in the concept the Saints might be extra run-heavy like his Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles groups. The one concern with Moore is the low working again goal price. Saquon Barkley had a 17.7% or higher goal price each season with the New York Giants, however that fell to 13.8% with the Eagles. Austin Ekeler had a profession low in yards per route run at 1.25. Ezekiel Elliott was constantly above 1.0 yards per route run, and as soon as Kellen Moore took over, his yards per route run dropped beneath 1.0, simply to exceed 1.0 once more in his first season with out Moore. While Kamara must be the clear chief working the ball, we might see a notable dip in his receiving manufacturing.
The Saints had a top-10 run-blocking offensive line final season as a result of the group continuously prioritized the road from the NFL draft. Center Erik McCoy was a transparent robust level with an elite 94.6 run-blocking grade, however he was solely in a position to play seven video games. The group moved on from their oldest veteran, Lucas Patrick, in favor of Kelvin Banks Jr., New Orleans’ first-round rookie. Considering all the accidents to the inside elements of the road, there’s a probability the road might rank even larger than the highest 10 this season.
Bottom line
Kamara completed fifth within the fantasy factors per sport final season. That is sure to drop no less than a bit of bit on account of Moore’s historical past of not utilizing working backs a lot within the passing sport even after they’ve been nice receivers and his age. There can be no less than a threat that the brand new teaching workers and wholesome youthful working backs will lead Kamara to obtain fewer carries. While his upside is proscribed, he’s additionally safer than lots of different working backs with an ADP between 11-20.
Footnotes
- Statistics in tables and charts have been chosen primarily based on their capacity to foretell future fantasy efficiency on a per-game or per-opportunity foundation or to explain the participant relative to others on the similar place.
- “Opportunities” are outlined as passing dropbacks, dashing makes an attempt and routes run as a receiver.
- Numbers are supplied both by season or primarily based on the previous three years. For rookies, solely faculty statistics are included. For non-rookies, solely NFL statistics are thought-about, no matter whether or not they performed in faculty throughout the earlier three years.
- As faculty competitors is less complicated than NFL competitors, most rookies are prone to see a decline from their historic numbers.
- Only FBS knowledge is taken into account for faculty gamers and comparisons.
- Kneel-downs are faraway from dashing knowledge to supply cleaner quarterback dashing price statistics.
- The desk colours on this article vary from blue (indicating good/excessive) to crimson (indicating unhealthy/low).
- All percentiles and shade codings examine the given participant to others with a excessive pattern of alternatives. Generally, the cutoff is one-third of the potential alternatives within the pattern. If a participant doesn’t meet the brink, they’re nonetheless included within the comparability, although their outcomes could seem higher or worse than anticipated as a result of smaller, much less predictive pattern dimension.
- Information on utilization classifications and their significance could be discovered right here for working backs, extensive receivers and tight ends.