Storylines, matchups and predictions for the 5 largest video games

• Georgia–Alabama: The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide meet within the first matchup between top-five groups this season. 

• Illinois–Penn State: Two Big Ten squads within the top-20 put their undefeated seasons on the road. 

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all of our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and extra. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: half-hour

Week 4 of school soccer was absolute insanity. Six ranked groups misplaced this previous weekend with 4 matchups between top-25 colleges.

Week 5 guarantees to have extra of the identical chaos. We have one other 4 video games between top-25 squads this weekend, together with our first top-five showdown of the season in No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama. 

Here are the storylines to know, matchups to observe and predictions for six of the largest video games this weekend.

No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats (12 PM EST on ESPN)

Storyline to know: Two groups determined to get again on observe in a wide-open Big 12

Both the Cowboys and the Wildcats suffered their first losses of the season this previous weekend. Oklahoma State was defeated at residence by then-No. 12 Utah by a ultimate rating of 22-19. Kansas State’s loss was much more embarrassing because it was demolished by then-unranked BYU by a 38-9 ultimate rating. 

The winner of this sport is again within the thick of a wide-open Big 12 race. Meanwhile, the loser just about can’t lose one other convention sport if it needs to proceed combating for a Big 12 title and a playoff berth. 

Matchup to observe when Kansas State has the ball (Dalton): Kansas State’s run sport vs. Oklahoma State’s run protection

To be clear, the very first thing Kansas State must do to win this week is keep away from turnovers. The Wildcats turned the ball over thrice final week. The final time that they had three turnovers in a sport was final season’s loss to Oklahoma State. They should not in-built any solution to play from behind. Avoiding apparent passing conditions is a necessity.

Luckily, they nonetheless have their elite operating sport spearheaded by Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. Despite their different struggles final week, the Wildcats nonetheless ran for 233 yards and created eight explosive performs on the bottom. As lengthy as they proceed to run the ball properly early, they need to discover success towards the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State has but to show they will cease the run this season. They are presently permitting over 200 dashing yards per sport and 5.3 yards per carry. Lesser opponents like South Dakota State and Tulsa discovered success on the bottom towards them and their entrance seven was a sieve after they performed Utah and Arkansas.

Kansas State’s mixture of hole scheme runs and choice seems to be give linebackers matches when making an attempt to defend them. Last season, linebackers earned a 42.0 run protection grade when dealing with Kansas State. One of the keys to BYU’s win final week was that their linebackers earned a good 66.1 run protection grade, the third-best mark towards the Wildcats because the begin of final season.

Oklahoma State linebackers have struggled this season. They personal a 62.1 run-defense grade that’s the fourth-lowest within the Power Five. The brunt of that duty falls on Nickolas Martin and Jeff Roberson, who each have posted run-defense grades within the 60.0s to this point this season. Those two gamers would be the key to forcing Kansas State into apparent passing conditions, the place Avery Johnson has struggled to succeed with out play motion this season.

Matchup to observe when Oklahoma State has the ball (Max): Will the 2023 model of Ollie Gordon II ever return?

Gordon entered this season as our No. 2 participant in faculty soccer after his Doak Walker Award-winning sophomore marketing campaign. That 12 months, he led the nation in dashing yards (1,732) whereas putting second in dashing touchdowns (21) and yards after contact (1,056). 

To say Gordon’s disillusioned as far as a junior can be an understatement. While he’s tied for sixth within the nation in carries (76), he’s solely seventieth in dashing yards (236). He now has three straight video games with fewer than 50 dashing yards after having solely 4 all of final season. The offensive line has additionally accomplished him no favors as he’s averaging simply 0.6 yards earlier than contact per try, the ninth-lowest amongst FBS operating backs.

It gained’t get a lot simpler towards a Kansas State protection that’s thirty first in yards per try allowed (3.9) and solely offers up 0.9 yards earlier than contact on common. The Cowboys want Gordon to change into the famous person he was final season or else the offense will proceed to be one-dimensional with simply an above-average passing sport. 

Predictions

Max: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma State 24

This sport will come all the way down to who can run the ball higher. I imagine Kansas State’s three-headed monster in its backfield will do greater than Ollie Gordon II, who’s had a really gradual begin to his season.

Dalton: Kansas State 30, Oklahoma State 20

Both groups are coming off a troublesome loss, however Kansas State has a extra clear identification and the Cowboys’ protection has not performed properly this season, particularly towards the run.

No. 15 Louisville Cardinals at No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3:30 PM EST on Peacock)

Storyline to know: Notre Dame in all probability can’t afford to lose once more

The Fighting Irish backed themselves right into a nook by dropping to Northern Illinois a few weeks in the past. Since Notre Dame doesn’t play in a convention, it can’t routinely clinch a spot within the College Football Playoff by successful a convention title. The Fighting Irish additionally solely play two currently-ranked groups the remainder of the 12 months, so its energy of schedule doubtless gained’t be as robust as the opposite groups combating for at-large bids.

There’s likelihood {that a} two-loss Notre Dame squad isn’t sufficient to make the playoff, so the Fighting Irish are basically strolling a tightrope the remainder of the season. 

Matchup to observe when Notre Dame has the ball (Dalton): Can Riley Leonard stability the Notre Dame offense?

When the Fighting Irish have the soccer, we’ll see a battle of strengths. Notre Dame presently ranks ninth in dashing grade. The core of the Fighting Irish’s offense is the dashing skills of Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Riley Leonard.

Louisville, in the meantime, owns the third-best run protection grade within the nation, and the Cardinals simply held a terrific Georgia Tech assault to simply 98 yards on 36 carries. Their line of defense, led by gamers like Ashton Gillotte, Rene Konga, and Tramel Logan, has been implausible towards the run. So far, they’ve performed at an elite stage.

Georgia Tech responded by leaning on Haynes King and their vertical passing sport. King performed a wonderful sport, however Louisville was glad with their balanced staff effort and victorious outcome.

The drawback for Notre Dame is that, in contrast to Georgia Tech, they’ve one of many least explosive passing assaults within the nation.

Riley Leonard, 2024 stats with FBS ranks

Riley Leonard and the Fighting Irish offense have been incapable of offering their wonderful dashing assault and protection with complementary manufacturing. This was an issue for Notre Dame in final 12 months’s matchup between these two groups as properly. The Cardinals held Notre Dame to simply 81 dashing yards. Sam Hartman tried to hold the Fighting Irish to a victory however completed the sport with a 50.8 passing grade and three interceptions.

Louisville is bound to lock in on Notre Dame’s run sport once more, however the Cardinals rank 103rd within the nation in protection grade this season. If Riley Leonard can’t discover some type of spark by way of the air, we may see the same outcome as final 12 months’s matchup.

Matchup to observe when Louisville has the ball (Max): Can Louisville set up the run?

Louisville’s offense has been one of the environment friendly in faculty soccer to this point this season. Among FBS groups, the Cardinals are sixth in EPA per play, fourth in yards per play and eighth in offensive grade. Louisville has been very balanced as properly, putting among the many nation’s top-15 offenses in each EPA per cross and EPA per rush.

It’s the latter that’ll doubtless want to hold the Cardinals on this sport. That’s as a result of Notre Dame’s protection has been stellar towards the cross this season, putting third in EPA per play on such performs whereas having the second-best staff protection grade within the nation. With famous person defensive backs like Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts, it’s almost unimaginable to constantly get open on the Fighting Irish. However, Notre Dame’s run protection is simply fortieth in EPA per play, permitting 4.3 yards per try (fifty fifth). 

Louisville will doubtless want its committee backfield and offensive line to hold this staff to victory.

Predictions

Max: Notre Dame 27, Louisville 23

Notre Dame’s protection steps up and retains the Fighting Irish’s playoff aspirations alive. 

Dalton: Louisville 24, Notre Dame 20

Louisville’s balanced effort, particularly their run protection, towards Georgia Tech was extremely spectacular. If that continues and Tyler Shough stays composed, the Cardinals get a giant street win.

Colorado Buffaloes at UCF Knights (3:30 PM EST on FOX)

Storyline to know: A superb barometer sport for Colorado

It’s troublesome to gauge simply how good Colorado is that this season. The Buffaloes’ three wins have come towards groups which might be both aren’t FBS colleges or are outdoors the top-80 of PFF’s energy rankings: North Dakota State, Colorado State (108th) and Baylor (83rd). Colorado’s one loss got here to Nebraska, who’s 57th in that rating and beat the Buffaloes by 18 factors. 

Colorado has improved a few of its largest points defensively and has two of the most effective gamers in faculty soccer in Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, however there are nonetheless vital points up entrance on the offensive line that may maintain this staff again from Big 12 rivalry. This week towards UCF, the No. 49 staff in our energy rating, will assist present simply the place the Buffaloes stand within the convention.

Matchup to observe when UCF has the ball (Dalton): UCF’s dynamic dashing assault vs. Colorado’s doubtlessly rising run protection

Led by star operating again RJ Harvey, UCF is presently main the FBS in rush yards per sport. The Knights additionally rank fifth in dashing grade. Excluding sacks, they’ve rushed for over 1,100 yards of their three video games. Gus Malzahn is a grasp of making alternatives in area for his playmakers.

The frequent notion is that this could be an enormous mismatch for a Colorado protection that ranked 122nd in run protection grade final season. The outcomes by way of the Buffaloes’ first 4 video games could inform a unique story.

Colorado run protection:

Colorado attacked the switch portal this offseason with the thought of enhancing within the trenches. The Buffaloes acquired a ton of gamers of their entrance seven who have been productive run defenders on their earlier groups. That manufacturing has carried into Boulder.

Colorado presently has 12 gamers who’ve performed not less than 30 run protection snaps this season and earned not less than a 70.0 run protection grade. Last season, the Buffaloes had 4, and three of these gamers performed lower than 70 run-defense snaps throughout your entire season. Travis Hunter being their most constant run defender was not a system for fulfillment.

Transfer defensive linemen like Samuel Okunlola, Chidozie Nwankwo, B.J. Green, and Shane Cokes have all been strong towards the run to this point. The most surprising improvement, although, has been the play of their linebackers.

LaVonta Bentley, one of many few holdovers from final 12 months, presently holds an 85.3 run-defense grade. That’s a large enchancment from final season’s 47.8 mark. Charlotte switch Nikhai Hill-Green has seen heavier utilization of late and responded by posting a 92.1 run protection grade that leads the Power Five. In tandem, they’re taking part in extremely sound but aggressive soccer.

They nonetheless want some work in relation to stopping quarterbacks from operating the ball, however Colorado’s has vastly improved its run protection from final season. If the Buffaloes are as much as an enormous process towards a harmful UCF assault, their defensive entrance could possibly be the explanation they arrive away victorious.

Matchup to observe when Colorado has the ball (Max): Can Colorado’s offensive line maintain up simply sufficient?

As Dalton illustrated, Colorado considerably improved its physicality on protection. However, there are nonetheless points within the trenches offensively. The Buffaloes have allowed a strain on 35.7% of their dropbacks this season, the eighth-worst mark amongst Power Four colleges. Their 17 sacks allowed are tied for the fourth-most within the nation. 

If Colorado retains Shedeuer Sanders clear, their passing assault turns into one of the explosive in faculty soccer. His 93.1 PFF grade when stored clear is third amongst FBS quarterbacks. Sanders’ greatest trait is his means to learn and dissect a protection to search out any of his gifted pass-catchers who change into open. The offensive line’s struggles to guard him basically nerfs that attribute. 

UCF’s been beneath common by way of getting after the quarterback this season. The Knights are simply 77th amongst FBS defenses in strain price (31.1%) whereas their two sacks are the fewest amongst Power Four ones. Their blitz price (106th) and stunt price (76th) are additionally properly beneath common, so it’ll be on Colorado’s offensive line to win their head-to-head matchups. 

Predictions

Max: Colorado 33, UCF 30

While Colorado has some difficulties with UCF’s run sport, it protects Shedeur Sanders sufficient for the Buffaloes to tug off the upset. 

Dalton: Colorado 38, UCF 34

Colorado’s run protection is way improved. If they will make this sport concerning the quarterbacks, they maintain a giant benefit. Colorado will get a season-changing win.

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:30 PM EST on ABC)

Storyline to know: The largest sport of the 12 months to this point

Saturday’s matchup between the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide isn’t simply the largest of the weekend, it’s the largest of the 2024 season to this point. It’s the primary time that two top-five groups are squaring off with arguably faculty soccer’s two greatest coaches in Georgia’s Kirby Smart and Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer. It additionally options two quarterbacks who’ve Heisman Trophy and first-round aspirations in Carson Beck and Kalen DeBoer. Not to say, the winner of this blockbuster will doubtless unseat Texas as the brand new top-ranked staff within the nation.

Grab your popcorn. This goes to be particular.

Matchup to observe when Georgia has the ball (Dalton): Can Georgia thrive in apparent passing conditions?

Georgia loses nice gamers through commencement and the NFL Draft yearly, however dropping Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey has had a critical affect on their passing sport this season. As a staff, the Bulldogs ranked seventh in receiving grade final season. This 12 months they rank 72nd.

When the Bulldogs have gotten their run sport going and are capable of lean on their play motion sport, they’ve been very environment friendly on offense. However, their success severely drops off after they get in true dropback conditions.

Georgia Non-Play Action Metrics:

Georgia has not carried out properly when it has needed to drop again and win apparent passing conditions. Carson Beck presently owns a below-average 55.7 passing grade in non-play motion situations. That’s a large dropoff from his 88.5 grade final season. In final 12 months’s SEC Championship sport versus Alabama, Beck posted a 56.3 non-play motion passing grade.

The regarding half is that the Bulldogs have but to play a staff taking part in as properly in protection as Alabama. So far, Georgia has confronted an FCS opponent in Tennessee Tech together with Kentucky and Clemson, who respectively rank 58th and sixtieth in protection grade this season.

Conversely, Alabama ranks twelfth in protection grade. The Crimson Tide ranks inside the highest seven in protection grade and EPA per play allowed towards non-play motion passes. The Crimson Tide haven’t intercepted many passes, however they’re elite at shutting opponents down.

Alabama has allowed simply three passes to achieve not less than 15 yards this season. The Crimson Tide’s 2.89 yards per protection snap paces the FBS by almost half a yard. They’ve allowed the third-lowest share of first downs and touchdowns within the nation. They misplaced Nick Saban, however that is nonetheless a particularly powerful unit to beat, particularly with their safeties, Keon Sabb and Malachi Moore, taking part in the way in which they’re.

Georgia is struggling when it doesn’t use play-action. The Bulldogs are struggling on third down. There shall be apparent passing conditions the place Beck and his receivers have to make performs by way of the tooth of Alabama’s protection. That set of performs may outline this sport.

Matchup to observe when Alabama has the ball (Max): Can Georgia pace up Jalen Milroe?

The e book is out on Jalen Milroe. If you give him time within the pocket to search out open receivers downfield, good luck. He’s keen to face there for so long as it takes to search out an open receiver earlier than uncorking a deep ball with the rocket launcher connected to his proper shoulder. Both his common depth of goal (12.5 yards) and common time to throw (3.03 seconds) are among the many 20 highest marks within the nation this season. The 12 months earlier than, he was top-five in each classes.

If you power him to eliminate the ball shortly although, that’s the place he has much more points. 

Jalen Milroe’s passing splits over the past two seasons:

Kirby Smart seemingly knew this in final 12 months’s SEC title sport because the Bulldogs blitzed Milroe on 48.3% of his dropbacks, producing a strain on 41.4% of them. That triggered Milroe to submit only a 50.2 passing grade, his lowest of your entire season. 

Smart can be… properly, good to have the identical sport plan towards Milroe and power him to eliminate the ball shortly.

Predictions

Max: Georgia 24, Alabama 23

This sport is actually a coin flip. But with Nick Saban now gone, Kirby Smart will present why he’s the most effective coach in faculty soccer as he beats Alabama for the second time in seven tries. 

Dalton: Alabama 27, Georgia 20

Neither staff is firing on all cylinders, however Alabama’s protection and run sport make the distinction in a really bodily matchup.

No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (7:30 PM EST on NBC)

Storyline to know: Two undefeated groups within the Big Ten sq. off

Both Penn State and Illinois are unbeaten as they head into this primetime showdown. For the Nittany Lions, their 3-0 document was anticipated. They began the 12 months because the No. 8 staff within the AP ballot and performed three colleges who’re outdoors the top-50 of PFF’s energy rating: West Virginia (fifty fifth), Bowling Green (86th) and Kent State (124th). 

Illinois’ 4-0 begin is way extra shocking. The Fighting Illini haven’t sported that document because the 2011 season they usually entered the 12 months with a win complete set at simply 5.5. They have already got two victories over top-25 groups in Kansas and Nebraska. The solely different college who’s accomplished that’s Tennessee.

Matchup to observe when Penn State has the ball (Dalton): Drew Allar and Andy Kotelnicki vs. Illinois’ single-high security defenses

Illinois is infamous for his or her excessive share of single-high defenses. The Fighting Illini’s aggressive nature is such that they use a ton of man protection and five-man pressures. Those tendencies dare opponents to both be extra bodily than they’re or to take vertical pictures downfield.

Single-high defenses triggered Drew Allar and Penn State a whole lot of issues final season. Under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, although, the Nittany Lions have to this point appeared to unravel that drawback.

Penn State vs. Single-high Defenses:

Penn State has gone from a beneath common unit towards single-high defenses final 12 months to an elite one this 12 months. Andy Kotelnick has accomplished an unbelievable job of utilizing formations and motions with the intention to manipulate defenses into the seems to be that he needs. He’s additionally maximized Drew Allar and the remainder of Penn State’s personnel in a way that by no means occurred final season.

Contrast that with an Illinois protection that runs single-high seems to be at a high 5 price, and does so very successfully. The Fighting Illini rank inside the highest 25 in pass-rush grade and protection grade whereas in a single-high look regardless of already dealing with powerful opponents like Kansas and Nebraska.

Players determine video games, however we’ll see a particularly enjoyable schematic matchup between Andy Kotelnicki and Illinois defensive coordinator Aaron Henry on Saturday night time.

Matchup to observe when Illinois has the ball (Max): Can Illinois give Luke Altmyer time towards Penn State’s cross rush?

If you simply take a look at PFF grades, Luke Altmyer has been one of the improved quarterbacks within the nation this season. In 2023, he was 96th amongst FBS signal-callers with a 69.4 grade. So far in 2024, he’s 18th within the nation with an 86.9 rating.

While Altmyer definitely has improved in his second 12 months because the Fighting Illini’s starter, his breakout is interlinked with Illinois drastically enhancing in cross safety. The Fighting Illini have been 117th within the nation in pass-blocking grade final season. They’re presently tied for thirty fifth this 12 months. Altmyer’s a quarterback who performs at an elite stage when stored clear as properly, putting fourth amongst FBS quarterbacks in PFF grade on such performs (93.0). He’s far much less efficient underneath strain, as his 43.2 PFF grade is simply 103rd within the nation. 

Penn State’s line of defense options two top-150 prospects on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft large board in edge defenders Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, with Carter being a top-15 participant. So far this season, the Nittany Lions are tenth within the FBS in staff pass-rushing grade (79.4) and can give Illinois’ offensive line its hardest take a look at but. 

Predictions

Max: Penn State 28, Illinois 21

It gained’t fairly be the nine-overtime thriller we noticed from these two groups the final time they squared off in Happy Valley, however Penn State (17.5-point favorites) is ready to pull off a more in-depth win at residence than the oddsmakers would anticipate. 

Dalton: Penn State 30, Illinois 24

Luke Altmyer and Illinois are a harder opponent than many imagine. Penn State is way improved on offense, although, and Allar and Kotelnicki make the distinction in a Nittany Lions victory.

Arizona Wildcats at No. 10 Utah Utes (10:15 PM EST on ESPN)

Storyline to know: The standing of Cam Rising

After struggling a finger damage on his throwing hand towards Baylor in Week 2, Utah star quarterback Cam Rising was questionable all week main as much as its sport towards Oklahoma State. Most, together with Utah gamers like broad receiver Dorian Singer, anticipated him to play and he was even seen warming up pregame. But simply 20 minutes earlier than kickoff, head coach Kyle Whittingham determined to roll with true freshman Isaac Wilson as Rising nonetheless wasn’t one hundred pc.

While the Utes nonetheless gained that sport with out Rising, his damage standing is the largest storyline heading into this week’s conflict with Arizona, who’s coming off a bye week after being dominated by Kansas State a pair weeks in the past.

Matchup to observe when Arizona has the ball (Dalton): Tetairoa McMillan towards the world

Tetairoa McMillan is arguably the most effective broad receiver in faculty soccer. Through three video games, he’s earned an impressive 85.8 receiving grade and racked up 453 yards by way of the air. The Wildcats’ foremost drawback, nevertheless, is that no one else on their staff has even 100 receiving yards so far. McMillan is a famous person, however the staff doesn’t have the depth of weaponry that it did final season.

Arizona’s offense has basically been Noah Fifita and McMillan making an attempt to will them towards the endzone. Quali Conley has been respectable within the run sport, however he isn’t prone to dominate video games on his personal.

The drawback this has triggered is that opposing defenses are unafraid to problem the Wildcats in man protection. They have the choice of bracketing McMillan and making another person beat them, or they play one-on-one throughout the board and basically dare Arizona to throw to McMillan each single play.

Utah runs a fairly excessive price of Cover-1 and has been very profitable in doing so, operating a high 20 protection grade. McMillan had a giant sport towards the Utes final season, however the Wildcats’ supporting solid needs to be higher for them to win this time.

Matchup to observe when Utah has the ball (Max): Micah Bernard towards Arizona’s run protection

While he acquired his second profession win this previous Saturday, Isaac Wilson was hardly the explanation for the Utes’ offensive success. The youthful brother of Zach Wilson posted only a 35.8 passing grade within the victory with no big-time throws and two turnover-worthy performs.

Instead, Utah relied on operating again Micah Bernard for many of its offensive manufacturing. The senior had 26 carries for 186 yards towards the Cowboys, main the nation with 142 yards after contact in Week 4. If Rising remains to be out or if his throwing means remains to be hindered, the Utes will doubtless as soon as once more want Bernard to hold their offense.

Arizona’s run protection has been shaky this 12 months, putting eightieth in staff run-defense grade (73.1) and 99th in yards per try allowed (5.3). However, a lot of the Wildcats’ points got here to groups with quarterbacks who had wonderful mobility: New Mexico’s Devon Dampier and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson. They’re every among the many nation’s top-15 signal-callers in dashing yards this season. While Wilson and Rising definitely aren’t statues, their mobility doesn’t have to be sport deliberate for fairly like Dampier and Johnson. If Arizona solely has to deal with stopping Bernard, its entrance seven ought to theoretically carry out a lot better in run protection.

Predictions

Max: Arizona 27, Utah 24

With Rising’s well being nonetheless doubtful and Arizona having two weeks to organize, the Wildcats pull off a large street upset and reestablish themselves as a Big 12 contender. 

Dalton: Utah 23, Arizona 20

Utah has misplaced one residence sport because the begin of 2021. Arizona has regarded extremely skinny on offense. As they virtually all the time do, Utah finds a solution to win.