• David Montgomery ought to discover the top zone in opposition to the Bears: The Bears protection has struggled to cease the run in latest weeks. They rank within the backside 10 in EPA allowed per rush and are permitting 4.4 yards per carry.
• Devon Achane‘s versatility makes him a good selection: Achane has garnered six targets throughout the 10-yard line, tied for fifteenth within the NFL.
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Estimated studying time: 4 minutes
RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
The Bears protection has struggled to cease the run in latest weeks. They rank within the backside 10 in EPA allowed per rush and are permitting 4.4 yards per carry.
Now, they face a Lions speeding assault that boasts the third-highest EPA per rush and second-highest success fee within the NFL. Detroit additionally runs the ball 9% greater than anticipated within the crimson zone, preferring to punch it in on the bottom.
Even with Jahmyr Gibbs taking touches between the 20s, David Montgomery stays Detroit’s go-to red-zone again, outcarrying Gibbs almost 2-to-1 in close-range conditions. With the Lions sporting one of many highest staff totals this week — and loads of scoring alternatives — Montgomery is a robust wager to search out the top zone on this Thanksgiving showdown.
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RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
Achane has carved out a big red-zone position for the Dolphins and boasts the league’s sixth-highest contact share on performs contained in the 5-yard line.
Achane actually stands out as a red-zone receiving menace, as his six targets contained in the 10-yard line are tied for fifteenth within the league. This enhances his position as a runner, giving him extra scoring alternatives than almost another participant within the NFL.
The Dolphins offense is well-positioned to place up factors in opposition to a Packers protection that ranks within the backside 10 in yards allowed per try, EPA allowed per play and success fee allowed over the previous a number of weeks. At even cash, Achane’s heavy utilization makes him a wonderful wager to search out the top zone.
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Longshot: TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs have been dominant in opposition to the run this season, rating first within the NFL in a number of key effectivity metrics, together with yards allowed per carry, rush success fee allowed and EPA allowed per rush.
This dominance has pressured opponents to assault by way of the air, the place Kansas City is most susceptible in opposition to tight ends. The Chiefs have surrendered probably the most yards within the league to the place.
Enter rookie Brock Bowers, a goal machine who earns appears to be like on 27% of his routes. He’s additionally been a red-zone weapon, boasting one of many highest PFF grades on performs contained in the 20-yard line.
With the Raiders anticipated to throw typically as they play from behind, search for Las Vegas to take advantage of this matchup by concentrating on Bowers in opposition to a protection vulnerable to tight ends.
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