Using PFF fantasy projections to unearth precious passing props

• Can Joe Burrow lead the NFL in passing yardage once more? With Burrow having produced greater than 4,400 passing yards in three of his 5 NFL seasons (the 2 wherein he didn’t have been reduce brief by accidents), he stands probability of main the league in 2025.

• Bet on Justin Herbert to mild up scoreboards: Even with restricted choices to focus on within the passing sport this previous season, Herbert tossed 23 touchdowns — the fourth time in his profession of exceeding a 21.5 line.

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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

Fantasy soccer and NFL betting go hand-in-hand. Through the exact same insights we use that will help you draft the very best lineup to win your fantasy leagues, we are able to additionally decide the perfect futures and prop bets to focus on all through the season.

Thanks to the onerous work of Nathan Jahnke, Jon Macri and the remainder of the PFF Fantasy staff, we’re in a position to measure projections for each participant in opposition to season-long betting strains to find out probably the most precious futures bets.

These are the perfect passing props to focus on for the 2025 NFL season.

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

• Line: Most passing yards within the NFL (+650)
• PFF Projection: 4,262 passing yards

After posting an NFL-leading and career-high 4,918 passing yards this previous season, Burrow is once more projected to tempo the league in yardage in 2025, positioned because the betting favourite within the eyes of oddsmakers. With an extended monitor document of manufacturing and two of PFF’s top-ranked receivers, he stands probability. 

A subpar defensive efficiency from the Bengals in 2024 resulted in practically each matchup changing into a ship race. The staff fielded the fifth-highest-scoring offense (324 factors) and the Thirtieth-ranked protection in factors allowed (300). With comparable questions relating to the defensive personnel this season — primarily pertaining to Trey Hendrickson’s future — Burrow and firm could also be pressured to shoulder the burden once more.  

With Burrow having produced greater than 4,400 passing yards in three of his 5 seasons (the 2 wherein he didn’t have been reduce brief due by accidents) and putting within the high six in every of these campaigns, the Bengals passer has a wonderful alternative to turn into the primary quarterback to steer the NFL in passing yardage in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees did it in 2015 and 2016.

Pick: Joe Burrow to steer the NFL in passing yardage (+650)

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

When wholesome final season, the Dolphins quarterback was placing up numbers paying homage to his 2023 efficiency, when he led the NFL in passing yardage (4,620) and PFF passing grade (90.2). Over Tagovailoa’s 11 video games final season, he averaged 260.6 passing yards per outing, a tempo that may have pushed him previous 4,400 yards if he had performed in 17 video games.  

Although the rumor mill has been churning out headlines about Miami’s high goal, Tyreek Hill, nothing substantial has arisen. Should the Dolphins retain him, because it seems they may, Tagovailoa will head into the 2025 season with each of his high receiving targets in Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

However, one commerce rumor that appears to be extra grounded in actuality is a deal sending Jalen Ramsey out of Miami. That would go away the Dolphins’ secondary in a foul spot. With a schedule that includes some robust offenses, the onus will likely be on the Dolphins’ passing sport to select up the slack.  

Pick: Over 3,500.5 passing yards (-114)

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

We need to get this out of the way in which first: McCarthy is a proficient younger passer with an exceptional offensive thoughts at head coach in Kevin O’Connell and a stable complement of weapons round him. However, expectations are being set exceedingly excessive. McCarthy can have an distinctive season and nonetheless miss out on hitting this line. 

McCarthy’s 24.5 passing touchdowns line is tied for the ninth highest within the league. From a historic perspective, simply 5 passers prior to now decade have managed to provide 25 scores in what was successfully their first season as a professional. 

The Vikings face the third-most tough power of schedule within the NFL in 2025. They are set to battle some powerful secondaries, with 5 video games in opposition to groups that completed within the high 12 for fewest passing touchdowns allowed and one other 4 that completed within the high 10 in PFF protection grade.  

Pick: Under 24.5 passing TD (-108)

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

While Herbert’s 2024 counting stats might not have mirrored a milestone yr, it was precisely that for the Chargers quarterback. His 90.8 PFF passing grade was a profession finest and ranked third within the NFL amongst qualifying passers, hinting at a 2025 marketing campaign that could possibly be Herbert’s finest season but.

Even with restricted choices to focus on within the passing sport this previous season, Herbert nonetheless tossed 23 touchdowns, the fourth time in his profession he exceeded this line. The solely season wherein he did not surpass 22 touchdowns was 2023, when he missed the final 4 video games as a consequence of damage. He nonetheless managed 20 scores that yr. 

This season, Herbert has a bunch of pass-game weapons. Ladd McConkey is seeking to construct on his seven scores as a rookie. Second-round decide Tre Harris caught seven touchdowns in simply eight video games final season at Ole Miss. And rookie KeAndre Lambert-Smith hauled in eight scores in 2024 whereas showcasing his expertise within the pink zone.   

Pick: Over 21.5 passing TDs (-108)